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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Business development company turmoil is making direct lenders cautious on corporate debt risk, according to PGIM, which oversees more than $200 billion in private credit. “It’ll have a bit of a chilling effect,” Matt Harvey, the firm’s global head of middle-market direct lending, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “As a lender you’re a little bit more conservative, you’re a little bit more rational in terms of your view on how to structure the asset, how to price it,” Harvey says. They also discuss default rates, loan marks, the consumer staples sector and relative value in European direct lending.
 
 

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PGIM Sees 'Chilling Effect' on Private Credit From BDC Storm

The plunge in software debt creates opportunities to buy cheap loans from companies that will survive AI disruption, according to Permira Credit. “The market has overreacted,” Ian Jackson, the firm’s head of strategic opportunities, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “The broad selloff in software has been such an interesting place for us because a lot of these names, we just don’t believe will go through restructuring,” says Jackson, whose company lends to technology companies. They also discuss fraud, private market stress, relative value in Europe vs. US credit and the outlook for collateralized loan obligations.

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European PE Giant Permira Looks to Buy Beaten Up Software Loans

A bank retreat from private credit piles pressure on business development companies already reeling from a wave of redemptions, according to SLR Investment Corp. “You’re starting to see banks get nervous and start to pull back,” the BDC’s co-Chief Executive Officer Michael Gross tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “It’s going to increase people’s cost of capital, which will make it harder for people to invest efficiently,” said Gross, who led Apollo Investment Corporation, part of the early wave of BDCs, before starting SLR in 2006. They also discuss software distress, how to avoid fraud and why BDCs still work for retail investors.

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BDC Veteran Expects Private Credit Fund Stress as Banks Pull Back

Third Point is getting ready to scoop up credit assets that others have to sell to raise liquidity as cracks in the market spread. “This is probably one of the most exciting times to be a credit investor,” Shalini Sriram, the hedge fund’s head of structured credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “You are seeing people trying to sell parts of the portfolio that they can,” says Sriram, who sits on the fund’s risk committee. They also discuss residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, consumer finance and collateralized loan obligations.

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Third Point Is Looking to Buy as Others Sell Amid Rising Turbulence

Consumer discretionary companies are at risk of downgrades and default if the war in the Middle East drags on, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “We’ll definitely see a bunch of companies that have been holding on finally shake out,” Jody Lurie, a BI credit analyst focused on leisure, travel and lodging, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. Car rental firms, theme parks and smaller casinos are exposed as rising gas prices crimp consumer spending. The oil rally is a windfall for energy companies, though gains at larger operators may accrue more to equity investors than bondholders. The debt of smaller independent producers may perform better, says Spencer Cutter, who covers the sector for BI.

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How to Position for a Long War in Iran

Fear of software defaults amid AI disruption creates opportunity for high-yield debt buyers, according to Capital Group, which has $3.2 trillion under management. “Markets are adopting a bit of a shoot first ask questions later strategy when it comes to software,” said Shannon Ward, a fixed income portfolio manager who serves on the firm’s fixed income management committee. “There’s going to be some baby out with the bath water when it comes to the sector — and that means bargains can be had,” she tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Steve Flynn in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss how Paramount Skydance will reshape junk credit, leveraged loan default risks and the broader impact of private market stress.

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Capital Group Spies High-Yield Software Opportunity in Debt Meltdown

Software default rates could hit double digits as AI disruption spreads and loans come due, according to Bain Capital. “We’re going to see real stress,” said Angelo Rufino, the firm’s head of special situations in North America and corporate special situations in Europe. “We will see a full credit cycle as the reckoning really comes to resize capital structures to the earnings power of these business models,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss investment-grade private credit, data center debt and asset-based finance, including the rise of music-royalty deals.

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Bain Sees Software Debt Defaults Spiking

Systematic credit investing has room to expand into leveraged loans, structured finance and emerging markets, according to Acadian Asset Management. “You could take an issuer approach to do security selection in the leveraged loan market,” Scott Richardson, the $178 billion firm’s director of systematic credit tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Sam Geier in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “That could be extended to structured things that sit on top of that, CLOs and the like,” says Richardson, referring to collateralized loan obligations. They also discuss alternative data, private credit and how to build a portfolio “without giving a liver and a kidney to Goldman Sachs along the way.”

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Acadian Sees Quants Moving to Loans, CLOs

Mortgage-backed securities look attractive even after government purchases snapped spreads tighter, according to Clark Capital Management. “I don’t think the trade is completely over yet because corporates are even tighter,” Oliver Chambers, head of fixed income for the firm’s separately managed accounts, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “You can go in and clip a 4.5% coupon and have potential for some price appreciation if rates do come down,” says Chambers. They also discuss technology debt risk, the market impact of new leadership at the Federal Reserve and what the central bank would do if there’s a big selloff.

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The Big MBS Trade Has Legs Even After Government Buys, Says Clark

Technology companies flooding debt markets are just getting started on funding a $4 trillion artificial intelligence boom, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “This is the tip of the iceberg,” Robert Schiffman, BI’s senior tech credit analyst, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “A lot will depend on at what pace industries are embracing AI technologies,” adds Anurag Rana, a senior BI equity analyst who also covers the sector. BI expects AI capital expenditure to exceed $4 trillion in the US through the end of 2030. The trio also discuss the impact of surging bond issuance on credit spreads, the appeal of very long-dated debt in a sector susceptible to disruption and the biggest risks for this year.

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The Big MBS Trade Has Legs Even After Government Buys, Says Clark

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