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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Systematic credit investing has room to expand into leveraged loans, structured finance and emerging markets, according to Acadian Asset Management. “You could take an issuer approach to do security selection in the leveraged loan market,” Scott Richardson, the $178 billion firm’s director of systematic credit tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Sam Geier in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “That could be extended to structured things that sit on top of that, CLOs and the like,” says Richardson, referring to collateralized loan obligations. They also discuss alternative data, private credit and how to build a portfolio “without giving a liver and a kidney to Goldman Sachs along the way.”

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Acadian Sees Quants Moving to Loans, CLOs

Mortgage-backed securities look attractive even after government purchases snapped spreads tighter, according to Clark Capital Management. “I don’t think the trade is completely over yet because corporates are even tighter,” Oliver Chambers, head of fixed income for the firm’s separately managed accounts, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “You can go in and clip a 4.5% coupon and have potential for some price appreciation if rates do come down,” says Chambers. They also discuss technology debt risk, the market impact of new leadership at the Federal Reserve and what the central bank would do if there’s a big selloff.

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The Big MBS Trade Has Legs Even After Government Buys, Says Clark

Technology companies flooding debt markets are just getting started on funding a $4 trillion artificial intelligence boom, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “This is the tip of the iceberg,” Robert Schiffman, BI’s senior tech credit analyst, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “A lot will depend on at what pace industries are embracing AI technologies,” adds Anurag Rana, a senior BI equity analyst who also covers the sector. BI expects AI capital expenditure to exceed $4 trillion in the US through the end of 2030. The trio also discuss the impact of surging bond issuance on credit spreads, the appeal of very long-dated debt in a sector susceptible to disruption and the biggest risks for this year.

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Tech Debt Binge Is Just Getting Started

Corporate loans signed when rates were low are increasingly hitting a wall as they come due, according to H.I.G Bayside. “There’s a level of discount in these stressed credits that we haven’t seen for a number of years,” Jackson Craig, who co-heads the credit-focused arm of H.I.G. Capital, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tim Riminton in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “The dislocations that are occurring and the discounts that original lenders are willing to take to shed troubled assets has grown,” says Craig, who focuses on distressed debt. They also discuss private credit defaults, trouble in the chemicals sector, forced selling by collateralized loan obligations and how liability management is adding pressure.

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Distressed Buyer H.I.G. Sees Most Loan Distress in Years (Podcast)

Investors underestimate the hazards in private debt, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. “There’s a lot of additional credit risk that people are often taking in some of these private situations that you kind of turn a blind eye to,” Christian Stracke, the $2.3 trillion asset manager’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There is a fairly large overhang of problem loans that were made in years earlier this decade that will take years to burn through,” he adds. They also discuss deteriorating debt underwriting standards in the technology sector, Europe’s big defense investment opportunity and the “sell America” trade.

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Pimco’s President Says Private Debt Investors Are Blind to the Risks

Pressure on highly-indebted companies will intensify as interest rates remain elevated, according to Seix Investment Advisors. “We have a lot of credit zombies — B3/B minus or CCC rated credits — that still have very weak interest coverage, generating zero free cash flow,” George Goudelias, chief investment officer of the firm’s leveraged finance platform, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There are mine fields to avoid in this market,” he adds. They also discuss the impact of private credit on public leveraged finance, why Seix is bearish on technology and how rising “sell America” sentiment could affect corporate debt.

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Seix Fears More Zombie Borrower Distress as Interest Rates Stay High

Despite all the negative headlines around private credit, Neuberger Berman says direct loans pay a lot more than traded debt and barely make a loss. “We pretty consistently see a 200 basis point differential,” Susan Kasser, the gobal investment management firm’s head of private debt, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Our annualized loss rates are one basis point,” she adds. They also discuss how artificial intelligence helps to pinpoint investment opportunities and why private markets will probably continue to get bad press.

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Neuberger Sees More Gain Than Pain in Private Debt Market

Venezuela debt holders will likely have to wait years to get their money back after regime change in the oil-rich nation, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “The near-term challenges are nothing short of massive,” says Damian Sassower, chief emerging-markets credit strategist, in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “I think the rest of this year is spent trying to figure out how to make Venezuela investable,” said Spencer Cutter, who covers US energy producers for BI. They also discuss opportunities and risks for American and Canadian oil companies, the sale of Citgo Petroleum and the “domino effect” on China.

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The Long Road to Making Venezuela's Debt and Oil Investable Again

Credit is one of many overvalued markets and the technology sector is particularly risky, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors. “We’re kind of in an everything bubble at the moment,” Mike Contopoulos, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Tech is going to come back down to earth a little bit this year,” said Contopoulos. RBA, which invests across asset classes via exchange-traded funds, has no exposure to corporate credit. They also discuss value in collateralized loan obligations, mortgage-backed securities and Europe.

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Inside ‘the Everything Bubble’ With RBA

Long-term debt bets on technology companies that are borrowing heavily for AI may end in tears, according to Newfleet Asset Management. “It’s one of the biggest risks out there,” said Dave Albrycht, the multi-sector fixed income manager’s president and chief investment officer. “There’s no free lunch in the bond market,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. Besides investment-grade companies borrowing to fund equity-like risk, they discuss the risk of Oracle falling to junk, why asset-backed securities are a hedge and how leveraged loans will be worth buying when the Federal Reserve stops cutting rates.

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Tech Debt Binge Is Just Getting Started

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