TIP844: Uber (UBER): The Autonomy Referendum — Is Mr. Market Completely Wrong? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Uber (NYSE: UBER), one of the largest holdings in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio, fifteen months after they first pitched it. In that time, Uber’s operating profits have roughly doubled, free cash flow has climbed to about $10 billion a year, gross bookings are compounding around 20% annually, and the board authorized a new $20 billion buyback. And yet the stock is flat, with its multiple of operating profits cut from 55 times down to roughly 22 times.

Shawn and Daniel discuss why the market is pricing Uber as though autonomy ends the story — Waymo raising $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation, roughly the same market cap as all of Uber, and formally ending its exclusive partnerships in Austin and Atlanta. They dig into the more than 20 AV partners Uber has lined up in response, from Nuro and Lucid to Rivian, NVIDIA, Zoox, WeRide, Baidu, and Pony.ai, plus Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero, the margin inflection driven by advertising, insurance normalization, and Uber One — and whether the market is writing down the entire company for a risk that touches maybe a tenth of its profits.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:04:06) Why Uber’s stock is flat while its operating profits have doubled

(00:07:19) How Uber’s operating margins swung 55 percentage points in under six years

(00:08:40) Why advertising, Uber One, and insurance reform keep pushing margins higher

(00:28:49) What Waymo ending its exclusive deals in Austin and Atlanta really means

(00:41:17) How much of Uber’s profits are genuinely exposed to robotaxis

(00:50:29) Why Uber is racing to sign more than 20 autonomous vehicle partners

(00:58:04) What Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero actually buys it

(01:06:39) Why Shawn and Daniel are happy to keep owning Uber

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Our original podcast deep-dive on Uber.

Lewistown Capital’s Ride or Die: The Self-Driving S-Curve.

Uber’s acquisition offer for Delivery Hero.

Uber & Rivian’s robotaxi partnership for up to 50,000 vehicles.

NVIDIA’s plan to launch robotaxis on Uber across 28 cities.

Uber’s investor relations site.

Waymo’s $16 billion funding round.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Grab Holdings, Lyft, DoorDash.

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