The Tim Ferriss Show

#863: Elad Gil, Consigliere to Empire Builders — How to Spot Billion-Dollar Companies Before Everyone Else, The Misty AI Frontier, How Coke Beat Pepsi, When Consensus Pays, and Much MoreElad Gil (@eladgil) is CEO of Gil & Co, a multi-stage investment firm, holding company, and operating company working on the world’s most advanced technologies. Elad is a serial entrepreneur, operating executive, and investor or advisor to private companies, including AirBnB, Anduril, Coinbase, Figma, Instacart, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Stripe. He was previously VP of Corporate Strategy at Twitter and started mobile at Google. He was the founder and CEO of Mixerlabs and Color. Elad is the author of the bestseller High Growth Handbook: Scaling Startups from 10 to 10,000 People. This episode is brought to you by: Matic the intelligent robot vacuum and mop that navigates obstacles and needs no babysitting: MaticRobots.com/TimAG1 all-in-one nutritional supplement: DrinkAG1.com/TimEight Sleep Pod Cover 5 sleeping solution for dynamic cooling and heating: EightSleep.com/Tim Helix Sleep premium mattresses: HelixSleep.com/Tim Timestamps • [00:00:00] Start. • [00:02:21] What’s the “AI personal IPO” that just quietly happened across Silicon Valley? • [00:05:28] Tens to hundreds of millions per researcher: What top AI pay packages actually look like. • [00:06:44] The compute ceiling: Why Korean memory fabs are the unlikely bottleneck throttling every AI lab on earth. • [00:11:11] From zero to $30B run rate: The fastest revenue ramps in the history of capitalism. • [00:17:24] The dot-com survival rate was one in 100. Buckle up, AI founders. • [00:20:35] Your value-maximizing window: Why the next 12–18 months may be as good as it gets. • [00:21:32] Durable advantage — and why the AI market is an oligopoly (for now). • [00:24:12] Exit options for AI founders: labs, hyperscalers, vertical players, and the underrated merger of equals. • [00:28:11] Math, biology, and intuitive leaps: Elad’s pre-investing background. • [00:29:42] Elad’s revisionist genesis story. • [00:30:50] Go where the cluster is: 91% of global AI private market cap lives in a 10×10 mile square. • [00:33:20] The accidental investor: Patrick Collison walks, Airbnb intros, and deals that just happened. • [00:34:37] Want money? Ask for advice. Want advice? Ask for money. • [00:35:00] The High Growth Handbook • : Tactical guide, not bedtime reading. • [00:35:41] Market first, team second — with a Perplexity-and-Anduril asterisk. • [00:37:43] Smoke in the distance: AlexNet and the transformative GPT-3 moment. • [00:45:15] AI cold-reading: Feeding photos to the model and getting eerily accurate personality reads. • [00:48:56] Has Elad ever done a retrospective on his own investing? • [00:52:13] Power laws are terrifying: 10 companies, 80% of returns, two decades. • [00:55:53] Avoiding science projects, and how SPACs accidentally saved hard tech investing. • [00:59:20] The one-belief framework: Coinbase = crypto index. Stripe = e-commerce index. That’s the whole memo. • [01:00:54] Due diligence theater vs. the one question that actually matters. • [01:02:13] The four-year vest is a relic: How venture capital ate growth investing. • [01:07:16] Boards as in-laws: You can’t fire them, so choose wisely. • [01:09:47] “Valuation is temporary. Control is forever.” — Naval Ravikant, as quoted by Elad, as relayed to you. • [01:11:30] How great companies actually grew: toolbars, name-targeted ads, and billions in distribution spend. • [01:15:36] Selling software vs. selling labor hours: The real shift generative AI made. • [01:18:40] Spotting a great market: regulatory shifts, technology shifts, and Hashi getting bought by IBM. • [01:21:28] Fake TAM, real TAM, and the Coke CEO who realized he wasn’t in the soda business. • [01:22:47] Right now, consensus is just correct. Save the contrarianism for later. • [01:25:15] Market entry vs. market disruption: SpaceX launched rockets, then disrupted the internet. • [01:26:16] How Elad learns: X, papers, 20-minute calls with the right people — and four AI models running in parallel. • [01:27:15] Deep dive: ADHD, autism, and why diagnostic rates soared without more people actually having it. • [01:33:40] Longevity for realists: sleep, creatine, and maybe rapamycin when the real drugs arrive. • [01:40:30] Ibogaine, anesthesia, and the next frontier of bioelectric medicine. • [01:45:15] Elad’s first-ever 10-year plan — and why making one changes everything. • [01:46:53] Parting thoughts. * For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast. For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsors Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday. For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts. Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books. Follow Tim: Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferriss YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss Facebook: facebook.com/timferriss LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferriss See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

867|1T 51M

#860: Daredevil Michelle Khare — How to Become a YouTube Superstar, Open Impossible Doors (FBI, Secret Service, etc.), Craft Jedi-Level Cold Emails, and Use Fear-Setting to Change Your LifeDaredevil Michelle Khare lives life to the extreme in Challenge Accepted, amassing more than 6 million followers and more than 1 billion views. Across the show, you'll see Michelle attempt everything from Tom Cruise’s Deadliest stunt to Harry Houdini’s water torture cell to trying to earn a black belt in taekwondo in only 90 days. This episode is brought to you by: Fin • powerful AI Agent for all your customer service: • Fin.Ai/TimMonarch track, budget, plan, and do more with your money: Monarch.com/Tim Momentous Fiber+ 3-in-1 formula with soluble fiber, insoluble fiber, and Solnul® resistant starch: LiveMomentous.com/TimAG1 all-in-one nutritional supplement: DrinkAG1.com/Tim TIMESTAMPS: • [00:00:00] Start. • [00:00:24] Challenge Accepted • : The logline and why breakdowns stay in the edit. • [00:03:05] Growing up in Shreveport, LA: Friday night movies, the AFI Top 100, and interning on Snitch • . • [00:06:15] Podcasting: While “easier” than writing books, it’s a heck of a lot more work than meets the ear. • [00:21:24] Quality over quantity: 8–10 episodes a year, scarcity as strategy, and building a defensible moat. • [00:31:47] “Hard choices, easy life.” — Jerzy Gregorek, calling the FAA 300 times, and why no one copies you when the barrier is insanity. • [00:35:32] Dartmouth to Google.org: the Fermi estimation faceplant and not getting the job. • [00:37:10] BuzzFeed as graduate school of the internet. • [00:40:37] Work for someone else first: My case against starting a company right out of school. • [00:47:28] The stolen book: Michelle pulls out a battered 2016 copy of The 4-Hour Workweek • and reads her fear-setting chart aloud. • [00:51:10] “I’ve never designed my own rubric of success” — the nightmare, the repair plan, and what Michelle was putting off out of fear. • [00:56:59] Practicing poverty: studio apartment, stripped-down life, moonlighting for a year, then the three-month-savings leap. • [01:06:58] Kebab-shop destiny: meeting stunt coordinator Steve Brown in L.A. — now he does Avatar • and straps Michelle to planes. • [01:09:04] Surface area for luck: Bill Gurley, Kevin Kelly’s sleeping bag, and Seneca on voluntary discomfort. • [01:12:44] Coach, mentor, cheerleader: the three-person Formula One team you actually need. • [01:17:20] The art of the cold email — and cold-calling the FBI tip line to meet “The Hollywood Guy.” • [01:21:55] Michelle’s three-paragraph, six-sentence formula for emails that open any door. • [01:26:15] My cold email playbook: the “via” trick, include your damn cell number, and why “Yo, Ferriss” is an auto-archive. • [01:36:24] The fake Tim Ferriss Podcast phishing scam: Zoom calls, screen access, and hijacked Facebook pages. • [01:40:58] Emailing Hank Green, Brandon Sanderson’s unpublished novels, and why your first cold emails are just practice reps. • [01:46:37] Michelle’s storytelling syllabus: Survivor • , Snyder’s Save the Cat • , and peer review of whatever went viral last week. • [01:48:44] The magic of Jeff Probst, and dissecting the bones of storytelling. • [01:53:12] John McPhee’s red-ink writing class at Princeton. • [01:58:38] Six Thinking Hats • broke Michelle’s pessimism; Radical Candor • taught her how to give feedback. • [02:07:20] The slinky org chart: Seven full-timers that balloon to 50 for a shoot, then compress right back. • [02:21:21] Scope creep, saying no to big checks, and why Michelle has never hit creator burnout. • [02:30:34] My No Book • teaser: 850 pages on renegotiating commitments and getting back on the wagon. • [02:33:31] The Mindy Kaling manifesto: @MindyKalingFan, The Office • , and shattering expectations for Indian women in entertainment. • [02:40:38] Wishlist shout-out: Norland College, where Mary Poppins meets Secret Service. • [02:42:48] Episodes Michelle would pay to relive. • [02:47:40] Episodes Michelle would pay to skip. • [02:52:15] Seven marathons, seven continents, one week. • [02:57:10] Free Solo • , Alex Honnold in the creepy van, and things both of us would never do. • [03:00:38] Books gifted most: Radical Candor • , The Great CEO Within • , and Adam Grant’s Originals • . • [03:01:21] Michelle’s billboard. • [03:02:45] A primetime Emmy run and parting thoughts. * For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast. For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsors Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday. For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts. Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books. Follow Tim: Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferriss YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss Facebook: facebook.com/timferriss LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferriss See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

864|3T 10M

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