How to Get Lucky, Solved

Ask most successful people how they got where they are, and the answer is usually some version of "good timing." Everyone else swears they earned it. We're terrible at seeing our own luck clearly, and even worse at realizing how much of it we could create. In this episode, Drew and I get into why: the psychology that makes us deny luck even exists, and what changes the moment you stop pretending everything is earned. We start with Warren Buffett - why a man worth tens of billions says the single most important thing that ever happened to him was where and when he was born. Then there's Napoleon, who picked his generals by skipping the résumé and asking one question: "Is he lucky?" And we brought in Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion who’s spent more than a decade studying decision-making, to explain why we keep confusing good decisions with lucky outcomes. There's also a stretch on survivorship bias that'll make you rethink every success story you've ever heard. Luck comes in three layers. And the research shows you have far more say over two of them than anyone ever told you. If you want to take the hand you were dealt and play it better, this episode is for you. Get your free episode guide: https://solvedpodcast.com/luck/ CHAPTERS: Chapters

00:00:00 Will Smith's Dad and the Luck Paradox: When Success Meets Fortune 00:02:23 Why We Avoid Thinking About Luck: The Uncomfortable Truth 00:16:13 The West's Struggle With Luck: From Greek Goddesses to Probability 00:21:05 The Three Types of Luck: Introducing the Sansai Framework 00:36:18 Heaven Luck: The Birth Lottery You Can't Control 00:40:56 The Norway vs Sierra Leone Thought Experiment: Luck Is Always Relative 00:46:20 The Farmer and the Horse: Good Luck, Bad Luck, Who Knows? 00:54:01 Gratitude as Expanding Your Frame of Reference 01:00:48 The Two Ways to Screw Up Heaven Luck 01:07:23 Napoleon: The Bullied Boy Who Mastered Earth Luck 01:09:32 Spotting High-Leverage Opportunities: Artillery and Knowledge 01:13:55 Acting Ferociously on Openings: Crossing the Alps 01:23:30 Richard Wiseman's Four Principles of Luck 01:25:26 Maximizing Opportunities and Surface Area 01:47:35 The Environment Matters More Than Personality 01:59:47 Power Laws and Game Selection: Why the Table You Choose Matters Most 02:05:19 Power Law Moments in History: Catching the Wave 02:12:50 Meet Annie Duke: Poker Champion Turned Decision Scientist 02:13:42 Why Every Decision Is Actually a Bet 02:20:15 The Marriage Bet: Choosing Under Uncertainty 02:22:08 No Decision Is Ever 100 Percent or 0 Percent 02:32:31 Resulting: Why Good Decisions Can Have Bad Outcomes 02:41:38 The Self-Serving Bias: Protecting Present You vs Future You 02:44:25 Loss Aversion: Why We're Afraid to Quit Bad Jobs 02:53:34 Making Decisions Explicit: Pre-Mortems and Forecasting 03:09:56 The Volume Approach: Why More Reps Equal Less Volatility 03:16:45 Annie's Bad Decision That Worked Out: The King-Queen Bluff 03:42:43 The Luck Paradox: Full Control Forward, Honest Reflection Backward 03:43:39 Four Practical Ways to Get Luckier Starting Today 03:47:36 Closing: When Opportunity Meets Preparation

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