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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Swelling demand for limited supply of corporate bonds and loans could spell trouble for credit markets, according to PineBridge Investments. “The thing that gives me a lot of pause right now — and some concern — is the lack of net new supply versus the amount of demand out there,” said Jeremy Burton, the firm’s portfolio manager for US high yield and leveraged loans. “That leads to the risk that the market as a whole will make subpar credit decisions,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Jody Lurie, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Burton and Lurie also discuss the state of the consumer, default rates, coercive liability management, as well as risks in the media, health care and software sectors.

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PineBridge Fears Credit Calamity as Demand Balloons

Credit spreads are poised to hit record tight levels in the first quarter, even as debt issuance rises, according to participants in this special 2025 outlook edition of the Credit Edge podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s James Crombie. We discuss bonds, loans, private credit — and bourbon — with the following guests: Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research; Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s; Matt Brill, Invesco’s head of North America investment-grade credit; Meghan Robson, BNP Paribas’ head of US credit strategy; Meghan Graper, global head of debt capital markets at Barclays; Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy at CreditSights; Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS; Oleg Melentyev, Bank of America’s head of high-yield credit strategy; and Aidan Cheslin, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Bourbon and Bonds: The Credit Edge 2025 Outlook

Private credit could become a $40 trillion market in five years, according to Apollo Global Management. “We’re going to get there really soon,” Akila Grewal, the firm’s global head of credit product, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Currently, “we estimate it’s a $20 trillion market,” she adds, referring to asset-based finance. Grewal and Geudtner also discuss relative risk and returns between public and private markets, retail investment, real estate opportunities, advantages for borrowers to raising capital privately and the fundraising environment. 

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Apollo Sees Private Credit Sprinting to $40 Trillion

A sustained period of elevated interest rates has the potential to cause pain in the fastest-growing part of corporate debt, according to RBC Global Asset Management. “We are concerned about how the direct lending private credit space would deal with a higher-for-longer world,” said Andrzej Skiba, the firm’s head of US fixed income. “You’re much better off in public markets because the leverage profile, the interest coverage ratios are just so much better,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Mike Holland, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Holland and Skiba also discuss value in financial-sector debt, technology and media bond opportunities, coercive liability management exercises and 2025 bond market returns.

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RBC Sees Private Credit in Peril as Rates Stay High

Debt spreads are set to tighten further as demand for yield rises and net supply remains constrained, according to First Eagle Alternative Credit, which is cautious about the year ahead. “Stay conservative — that’s the mantra that we’re operating under,” said Jim Fellows, the firm’s co-president and chief investment officer, referring to leveraged loans, private credit and high-yield bonds. “You don’t see a lot of screaming value,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Havens and Fellows also discuss opportunity in asset-based lending, middle-market loan pricing and covenant trends, as well as the outlook for buyout finance and private credit defaults.

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First Eagle Plays Safe as Credit Spreads Get Squeezed

Centerbridge Scans Consumer Pain as Inflation Lingers (Podcast)Stubbornly high prices are a threat to consumers that could bleed through to credit markets, according to Centerbridge. “The rising cost of goods and interest rates will have an impact,” said Aaron Fink, the firm’s head of asset finance. “To the extent we see deterioration in jobs, and in the labor market more broadly, that’ll be problematic,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Carmen Arroyo, and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Despite this, Centerbridge still sees significant opportunity in consumer finance. Fink and Bakshi also discuss how a new US administration will affect private credit via trade policy and regulation, growth in fundraising from private wealth and retail, as well as investment in data centers to support artificial intelligence.

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Centerbridge Sees Consumer Pain as Inflation Lingers

UK-based Pemberton Asset Management has widened its scope to stay ahead in the increasingly competitive world of private credit. “You’ve got to have a range of products that people think are relevant and attractive,” said Symon Drake-Brockman, the firm’s co-founder and managing partner, referring to net asset value financing, collateralized loan obligations and risk sharing, among other businesses. “We can build large verticals in each one of those strategies,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Silas Brown, and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jeroen Julius, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Drake-Brockman and Julius also discuss relative value between US and European private credit, areas of stress and whether US deregulation will boost competition from traditional lenders. “If you’re a chief executive of bank, you’ve got to make sure the pendulum doesn’t swing back the other way in four years’ time,” said Drake-Brockman.

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Pemberton Builds NAV Loans, CLOs for Private Debt Edge

As rates stay high, bank lenders retreat and volatility rises, Gramercy Funds Management sees significant growth in private credit to developing nations. “We’re just scratching the surface in emerging markets,” said Robert Koenigsberger, the firm’s founder, chief investment officer and managing partner, referring to private debt. “It’s really exciting to go deeper and broader in EM as an asset class with the tools that have proven to work already,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Koenigsberger and Alamutu also discuss EM private debt returns, default risks, real estate investment strategies, US tariffs and trade policy, as well as recent deals in Mexico and Turkey.

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Gramercy Says Private Is Way to Go in Emerging Markets

Corporate debt is well placed to withstand global turmoil caused by new US trade policy, according to Crescent Capital Group. “There is going to be a lot of volatility, but I think the markets are now becoming more accustomed to not reacting to those headlines,” said Chris Wright, the firm’s president and head of private debt. “Credit markets are pretty stable,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Julie Hung, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Wright highlights pro-growth policies of the new US administration and presence of business-friendly people in very senior roles, and views tariff announcements as a negotiating tactic. Wright and Hung also discuss inflation, consumer trends, private debt returns and default risks, as well as the need for scale to compete in direct lending.

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Crescent Sees Credit Holding Firm Amid Trade War Storm

Goldman Sachs is advising credit investors to protect against losses amid expensive valuations and rising geopolitical turmoil. “The cost of hedging is the lowest it’s been in probably a very long time — use that to your advantage,” said Lotfi Karoui, the firm’s chief credit strategist. “Look at that left tail of the distribution — the known unknowns, the unknown unknowns, the things that can take you off guard,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Despite this, Goldman is positive on the corporate debt market outlook, given very strong demand for limited supply, and sees opportunities at the single name level. Karoui and Schiffman also discuss “absolutely remarkable” value in mortgage-backed securities, the default rate, private market relative value, downgrade risk from a forecast pick up in dealmaking and European bond opportunities.

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Goldman Tells Credit Investors to Buy Cheap Hedges

Rising private credit stress will inflict losses on investors and spur volatility, Jerry Cudzil, portfolio manager at TCW Group, says in the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence. “Default rates are going to pick up in a really material way in private credit,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst David Havens. “We are currently seeing some real stress,” says Cudzil, who expects “accidents” as documentation weakens and pay-in-kind deals proliferate. Cudzil and Havens also discuss the broader financial markets implications of this turbulence, and how current leverage levels compare with 2007. TCW is underweight corporate credit but sees opportunity in collateralized loan obligations and agency mortgages.
 
Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 

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TCW Expects Private Debt ‘Accidents’ as Stress Builds

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