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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Swelling demand for limited supply of corporate bonds and loans could spell trouble for credit markets, according to PineBridge Investments. “The thing that gives me a lot of pause right now — and some concern — is the lack of net new supply versus the amount of demand out there,” said Jeremy Burton, the firm’s portfolio manager for US high yield and leveraged loans. “That leads to the risk that the market as a whole will make subpar credit decisions,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Jody Lurie, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Burton and Lurie also discuss the state of the consumer, default rates, coercive liability management, as well as risks in the media, health care and software sectors.

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PineBridge Fears Credit Calamity as Demand Balloons

Credit spreads are poised to hit record tight levels in the first quarter, even as debt issuance rises, according to participants in this special 2025 outlook edition of the Credit Edge podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s James Crombie. We discuss bonds, loans, private credit — and bourbon — with the following guests: Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research; Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s; Matt Brill, Invesco’s head of North America investment-grade credit; Meghan Robson, BNP Paribas’ head of US credit strategy; Meghan Graper, global head of debt capital markets at Barclays; Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy at CreditSights; Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS; Oleg Melentyev, Bank of America’s head of high-yield credit strategy; and Aidan Cheslin, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Bourbon and Bonds: The Credit Edge 2025 Outlook

Private credit could become a $40 trillion market in five years, according to Apollo Global Management. “We’re going to get there really soon,” Akila Grewal, the firm’s global head of credit product, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Currently, “we estimate it’s a $20 trillion market,” she adds, referring to asset-based finance. Grewal and Geudtner also discuss relative risk and returns between public and private markets, retail investment, real estate opportunities, advantages for borrowers to raising capital privately and the fundraising environment. 

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Apollo Sees Private Credit Sprinting to $40 Trillion

A sustained period of elevated interest rates has the potential to cause pain in the fastest-growing part of corporate debt, according to RBC Global Asset Management. “We are concerned about how the direct lending private credit space would deal with a higher-for-longer world,” said Andrzej Skiba, the firm’s head of US fixed income. “You’re much better off in public markets because the leverage profile, the interest coverage ratios are just so much better,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Mike Holland, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Holland and Skiba also discuss value in financial-sector debt, technology and media bond opportunities, coercive liability management exercises and 2025 bond market returns.

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RBC Sees Private Credit in Peril as Rates Stay High

Debt spreads are set to tighten further as demand for yield rises and net supply remains constrained, according to First Eagle Alternative Credit, which is cautious about the year ahead. “Stay conservative — that’s the mantra that we’re operating under,” said Jim Fellows, the firm’s co-president and chief investment officer, referring to leveraged loans, private credit and high-yield bonds. “You don’t see a lot of screaming value,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Havens and Fellows also discuss opportunity in asset-based lending, middle-market loan pricing and covenant trends, as well as the outlook for buyout finance and private credit defaults.

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First Eagle Plays Safe as Credit Spreads Get Squeezed

Junk-rated companies rushed to sell bonds at the start of the year as risk assets rallied. In this episode, Bloomberg News reporter Olivia Raimonde looks at the opportunity for borrowers and the risks to investors as the economy slows, while Stephen Flynn of Bloomberg Intelligence digs into the communications sector.

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High-Yield Boom; Communications Focus: Credit Edge

Buyers of repackaged loans are fighting to stop Libor transition costing them millions of dollars, while Twitter has some hefty debt payments due. In this episode, Bloomberg News reporter Paula Seligson digs into the biggest credit stories of the week, while Robert Schiffman of Bloomberg Intelligence takes a deep dive into the technology sector.

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CLO Clash, Twitter Debt Drama; Technology Focus

Retail companies are tumbling into bankruptcy as consumers pull back, pressured by inflation, and debt costs soar. In this episode, Bloomberg News team leader Claire Boston weighs the outlook for US retailers, while Arnold Kakuda of Bloomberg Intelligence takes a deep dive into the banking sector.

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Retailers in Distress; Wall Street Banks Look Solid

Borrowers and investors in the $1.4 trillion leveraged loan market are battling over the looming switch to SOFR from Libor, with buyers complaining that they don’t have a say on the new rates being applied. In this episode of the Credit Edge Podcast, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie is joined by leveraged finance reporter Paula Seligson to detail what the switch means. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jaimin Patel also provides a status update on the Latin America energy sector.

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Libor-SOFR Switch Angst; LatAm Energy View

The rally across risk assets was perhaps felt the most in a corner of the structured credit market, agency backed mortgages. In this episode, Bloomberg News reporter Carmen Arroyo looks at why the bonds had the best start of the year ever, while Mike Holland of Bloomberg Intelligence digs deeper into the healthcare sector.

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Structured Credit; Healthcare Distress

Companies with floating-rate debt are feeling the pain of higher interest costs as leveraged loan defaults outpace that of junk bonds, Bloomberg News’ Jill Shah, says. The one-year default rate for US loan borrowers has soared to 4%, an analysis by Morgan Stanley shows. Also on this episode of the Credit Edge podcast, Bloomberg News corporate finance reporter Olivia Raimonde chats with Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Daniel Fan who covers China properties. He walks us through the debt crisis unfolding at distressed Chinese developer Country Garden.

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Loan Defaults Outpace Bonds; Country Garden Woes

Loan Defaults Outpace Bonds; Country Garden Woes

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