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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Venezuela debt holders will likely have to wait years to get their money back after regime change in the oil-rich nation, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “The near-term challenges are nothing short of massive,” says Damian Sassower, chief emerging-markets credit strategist, in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “I think the rest of this year is spent trying to figure out how to make Venezuela investable,” said Spencer Cutter, who covers US energy producers for BI. They also discuss opportunities and risks for American and Canadian oil companies, the sale of Citgo Petroleum and the “domino effect” on China.

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The Long Road to Making Venezuela's Debt and Oil Investable Again

Credit is one of many overvalued markets and the technology sector is particularly risky, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors. “We’re kind of in an everything bubble at the moment,” Mike Contopoulos, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Tech is going to come back down to earth a little bit this year,” said Contopoulos. RBA, which invests across asset classes via exchange-traded funds, has no exposure to corporate credit. They also discuss value in collateralized loan obligations, mortgage-backed securities and Europe.

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Inside ‘the Everything Bubble’ With RBA

Long-term debt bets on technology companies that are borrowing heavily for AI may end in tears, according to Newfleet Asset Management. “It’s one of the biggest risks out there,” said Dave Albrycht, the multi-sector fixed income manager’s president and chief investment officer. “There’s no free lunch in the bond market,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. Besides investment-grade companies borrowing to fund equity-like risk, they discuss the risk of Oracle falling to junk, why asset-backed securities are a hedge and how leveraged loans will be worth buying when the Federal Reserve stops cutting rates.

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Newfleet Warns of ‘No Free Lunch’ in AI Debt Funding Frenzy

KKR is looking to Europe and Japan for yield as US debt spreads grind tighter. “Investors are very focused on relative value in a market where there’s not a lot,” Tal Reback, global investment strategist for the firm’s credit and markets business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “In general, investors are much more intrigued about how to diversify geographically,” she adds. They also discuss what KKR thinks could be a $1 trillion European asset-backed debt opportunity, private credit default risk, valuations of direct loans, sector bets and business development companies.

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KKR Is Hunting for Yield in European and Japanese Credit Markets

The technology-funding frenzy could become a bust for credit markets if AI falls short of lofty expectations, according to Barclays. “If we get to a point where we see a lot of this issuance coming to the market — and then there’s some changes, where maybe certain things are a little bit less viable or a little bit less attractive — that leads to some downside risks,” Brad Rogoff, the firm’s global head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Campellone in the latest Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss “late-cycle” behavior, private-debt risk, asset-based finance and portfolio trades, as well as Barclays’ 2026 forecasts for credit spreads, defaults and global issuance.

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Barclays’ Rogoff Sees Risk of AI Bust as Debt Issuance Ramps Up

Global investors are looking more at European private credit as US returns get squeezed, according to London-based hedge fund Arini. “They want to focus on a place where they think there’s rule of law, where they think there’s opportunity set — and that’s really been Europe,” Mathew Cestar, the firm’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephane Kovatchev in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Europe pays about 50 basis points more on private loans than the US to compensate for its relative complexity, says Cestar, who leads the Arini’s direct lending business. The firm generates additional spread by focusing on middle-market, non-sponsor deals across the continent. Cestar also discusses credit agreements, defaults, the potential for investment in defense and where by country and sector he sees the best opportunity.

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Arini Says European Private Credit Has the Edge Over US Market

Vanguard Group, the world’s second-largest money manager, is wary of junk bonds given how expensive they’ve become. “Where the market is today doesn’t leave a lot of room for negative surprises,” Michael Chang, head of high-yield corporate credit at the $11 trillion asset manager, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Spreads are pretty tight, yields are about average — it’s not the best time to be investing in high yield,” Chang says. They also discuss Vanguard’s preference for debt from utilities and consumer staples companies, how to get extra yield from leveraged loans and how to profit from liability-management exercises.

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Vanguard Says Junk Bond Pricing Leaves Little Room for Negative Surprises

Lack of discipline is a concern for credit markets as investors rush to fund artificial intelligence, according to Oaktree Capital Management. “Just how much money is chasing deals — I think you need to be mindful of that,” Danielle Poli, a portfolio manager for the firm’s global credit strategy, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “What stands out is that anything with AI is just getting done,” Poli added. “A lot of the excess we’re seeing is in that space.” They also discuss where to find better returns in collateralized loan obligations, real estate debt, strategies for busted convertibles, private market relative value and opportunities in Europe.
 
 

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Oaktree Worries About Lack of Discipline in Rush to Fund AI

Credit investors should be careful about participating in the artificial intelligence boom, according to DoubleLine Capital. “You have to be not only cautious about the tech sector, but the tangential related sectors that are providing support for these new projects,” Robert Cohen, the firm’s director of global developed credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Who knows what the spillover will be if the music stops?” Cohen added. They also discuss compressed returns in private debt markets, commercial mortgage-backed securities, how to invest in corporate bonds by duration, rating and sector — plus the outlook for 2026.

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DoubleLine Is Ringing Alarm Bells on the AI Debt Funding Bonanza

Investors are too sanguine after shrugging off recent debt-market distress, according to Crossmark Global Investments. “My key concern is the complacency,” Victoria Fernandez, the firm’s chief market strategist, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Jamie Dimon talks about the cockroaches, but the investors don’t seem to care,” Fernandez says. They also discuss opportunity and risk in the build-out of AI infrastructure, health-care bond spreads, private credit troubles and the performance of values-based investments.

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Crossmark Says Investors Are Too Complacent About Market Risks

Borrowers and investors in the $1.4 trillion leveraged loan market are battling over the looming switch to SOFR from Libor, with buyers complaining that they don’t have a say on the new rates being applied. In this episode of the Credit Edge Podcast, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie is joined by leveraged finance reporter Paula Seligson to detail what the switch means. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jaimin Patel also provides a status update on the Latin America energy sector.

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Libor-SOFR Switch Angst; LatAm Energy View

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