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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Companies need to move fast to refinance leveraged-buyout debt coming due over the next few years, according to ICG. “Folks should start getting ahead of it because the traffic jam may be more the issue than anything,” David Saitowitz, the $126 billion global alternative asset manager’s head of US liquid credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “That could be the kind of risk event that may push the market wider for a period of time,” he says, referring to credit spreads. They also discuss the AI funding bubble, collateralized loan obligation performance and fallen-angel risk.

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LBO Debt Coming Due Is Next Big Test for Credit Markets, Says ICG

Investors are increasingly wary of lenders who dish out so-called bad PIK, or payment-in-kind interest, to help struggling portfolio companies avoid default, according to Anant Kumar, global investment strategist at Benefit Street Partners, the private credit arm of $1.7 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton. “If you’re a manager who wants to mask stress in the portfolio by doing that, you can probably fool some of the people some of the time,” he tells Bloomberg News’ Sinead Cruise and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “I do think investors will catch on if you see a widespread use of PIK in the portfolio without any resolution.” Those managers will likely undershoot expectations when their next fundraising rolls around, Kumar says. The trio also discuss the resilience of private credit illiquidity premia, the specter of inflation and how an industry transparency push is forcing firms to address dubious marks faster than ever before.

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Investors Keeping Score on 'Bad PIK', Benefit Street Partners' Kumar Says

Data-center debt returns are falling, risk is rising and there’s uncertainty over what the properties may be worth in the long run, Wellington Management says. “We think a lot about that replacement value when evaluating data centers,” Sonali Wilson, the $1.3 trillion manager’s lead investment director for private credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Today, I’ll say — not every situation — but, by and large, it’s a pass,” she says. They also discuss commercial real estate investment strategies, how to position for AI disruption and why Wellington is building out a private-debt platform now.

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Wellington Passes on Data Center Debt, Questioning Long-Term Value

Collateralized loan obligations face a second straight year of equity losses, according to Eagle Point Credit Management, a major buyer. “Where we stand right now, it’s certainly possible,” Tom Majewski, the $14 billion private-credit manager’s founder and managing partner, says in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast, when asked about the chance of negative returns. “While there were some credit problems, oddly the bigger issue was the bull market and repricing of loans,” Majewski tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Reto Bachmann. They also discuss software-loan stress, business-development-company turmoil, lower returns in significant risk transfers and how Eagle Point is diversifying into hard assets like midmarket infrastructure lending.

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Bull Run in Loans Slams CLO Equity Buyers, Says Eagle Point’s Majewski

Sona Asset Management is looking to expand its business in asset-based finance and significant risk transfers as public and private debt markets converge. “The thing that excites us the most is the scope for growth in ABF markets here in Europe,” Henrik Johnsson, the London-based hedge fund’s chief executive officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Aidan Cheslin in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “We really like SRTs, although spreads have obviously come in a lot over the last couple of years,” Johnsson adds. They also discuss how to short corporate debt, software-loan distress, secondary sales of private credit assets and investing in the AI boom.

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Sona’s CEO Sees ‘Exciting’ Growth in Asset-Based Finance, SRTs

SpaceX bondholders are bolstered by a fat equity cushion, high-grade ratings and a relatively small amount of debt outstanding — but they depend on founder Elon Musk, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “There’s a huge risk there, and the rating agencies have actually pointed this out in terms of governance,” Robert Schiffman, BI senior technology credit analyst, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “You’re absolutely on an Elon Musk trip — his vision and his ability to raise money is a large portion of this company right now,” adds George Ferguson, BI senior equity analyst for aerospace, defense and airlines. The trio also discuss poor secondary performance in SpaceX bonds, relative value compared with the equity, and credit-market risks if AI flops.

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SpaceX Bondholders Face Huge Key Person Risk on Their Elon Musk Trip

Further acceleration in AI debt issuance has the potential to steer demand away from government bonds, according to Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager. “At some point it could have a crowding effect, but we are not there yet,” Gregoire Pesques, the firm’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It’s a risk that we monitor,” says Pesques, whose company has $2.7 trillion under management. They also discuss value in corporate debt relative to government bonds, how G7 countries are behaving more like emerging markets and Amundi’s concerns about central bank independence.
 
 

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Europe's Largest Asset Manager Warns of AI Debt Deluge Crowding Out

Private credit disarray spells opportunity for housing giant Pretium, which targets high returns by lending to US homebuilders. “Our private credit looks a little bit different than other private credit in the sense that we are secured, we have real good downside protection,” Jon Pruzan, the company’s co-president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “We have a lot of people who want capital and not a lot of people providing capital — that puts us in an opportunity to continue to generate attractive returns,” says Pruzan, who was previously chief financial officer at Morgan Stanley. They also discuss housing fundamentals, opportunity by region, how Pretium achieves midteens returns and political risks going into the November US midterm elections.

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Real Estate Is Next Bet for Debt Investors Avoiding Private Credit

Private lenders are going back to basics as debt trouble spreads, market participants tell Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Boring is beautiful, boring is better right now,” says Christina Lee, managing director at Oaktree Capital Management. The podcast also explores AI debt risks, software distress, how tight bond spreads can go and the state of US consumers with the following guests: Matt Brill, head of North America investment-grade credit at Invesco; Anish Shah, global head of debt capital markets at Morgan Stanley; Lotfi Karoui, multi-asset credit strategist at Pimco; Jody Lurie, Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst; Na Wei, global head of leveraged finance at Barclays; Sheel Patel, head of Mayer Brown’s private credit practice in New York; Shalini Sriram, Third Point’s head of structured credit; and Scott Goodwin, co-founder of Diameter Capital Partners. Interviews were recorded June 3 at Bloomberg’s Global Credit Forum in New York.
 
 

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Oaktree Says Boring is Beautiful In Dicey Private Credit Market

Robust demand from pensions and insurance companies will support corporate debt through macroeconomic headwinds and record supply, according to Goldman Sachs. “Spreads are tight to the prewar levels when the facts on the ground have unquestionably become more challenging,” Amanda Lynam, Goldman’s chief credit strategist, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “That is this uncomfortable tension that we have in the credit market,” Lynam says. “Sentiment around the yield-based buyer is really in the driver’s seat.” They also discuss the AI funding boom, private-credit risks, CCC underperformance and where to find value in structured products.

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LBO Debt Coming Due Is Next Big Test for Credit Markets, Says ICG

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