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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

More companies will fail to repay debt as funding costs stay high, according to Mudrick Capital Management. “What we’re getting is just elevated defaults every year, we think for the next five to seven years,” Jason Mudrick, the distressed debt fund’s founder and chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ Irene Garcia Perez and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Holland in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “The catalyst today is not an economic downturn — it’s this normalization of interest rates,” says Mudrick. They also discuss the Tropicana, Yellow Pages and Shutterfly debt restructurings, as well as flying taxi maker Vertical Aerospace.

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Mudrick Sees Seven-Year Default Wave as Rates Stay Up

Fox Legal Training sees debt documentation risks rising as too much cash chases a limited number of high-yield deals. “Provisions these days are drafted in a way that they are very much departures from reality,” Sabrina Fox, the company’s founder, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Aidan Cheslin in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “That creates an alternate universe, like La La Land, where the numbers don’t match the performance of the business,” says Fox, who specializes in covenant analysis. Fox and Cheslin also discuss lack of transparency in high-yield debt deals, lessons learned from the Altice debt restructuring, how aggressive liability management spreads to Europe from the US and where to spot trouble in prospectuses.

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Junk Companies Are in Debt Covenant 'La La Land,' Says Fox Legal

US billionaires and sovereign wealth funds are going to get more active in global sports investing, according to Andalusian Credit Partners. “The US invasion into other markets is just getting started,” Aaron Kless, the US middle-market direct lending platform’s chief executive officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “A lot of the largest sovereign wealth funds are interested in getting deeper into sports investing,” adds Kless, whose firm focuses on sports, media and entertainment. Kless and Kakuda also discuss the next big sports deal, the high cost of being a fan and how not to get trapped in the vanity play.

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US Billionaires Are Only Just Getting Started on Their Global Sports Invasion

Ares Management, the $550 billion alternative investor, expects private lenders to get more involved in funding Europe’s rearmament. “We are starting to see more defense opportunities come across the desk,” Mike Dennis, the company’s co-head of European credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jeroen Julius in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “We would tend to be cautious — we need to listen to what our LPs’ appetite for those types of businesses are,” says Dennis, referring to Ares’ limited partners and their environmental, social and governance concerns. Dennis and Julius also discuss middle-market loan pricing, private credit returns and where Ares might look to open up new offices in Europe.

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Private Credit Giant Ares Is Seeing More Defense Opportunities in Europe

JPMorgan Asset Management is seeking hedges against credit market losses as risks rise and spreads tighten. “There’s value in shorts and credit protection,” Oksana Aronov, the firm’s head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jody Lurie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It is very undervalued today because of the complacency in the market,” says Aronov, referring to the high-grade credit default swap index. Aronov and Lurie also discuss the increasing amount of bond and loan interest being repaid with additional debt, dwindling recovery rates, private debt convergence and high-grade opportunities.

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JPMorgan’s Aronov Sees More Junk Firms Struggling to Repay Debts

HPS Investment Partners is building out its fund finance business, including net-asset-value lending. “It’s a huge opportunity,” Purnima Puri, head of liquid credit and a founding partner at the $150 billion firm, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Exits for private equity sponsors have been somewhat limited and it’s one way to get some capital back to their investor group, which I think is super important,” says Puri. They also discuss how HPS is positioning for stagflation, the private-debt deal pipeline, relative returns, slim recoveries and liability-management exercise “brain damage.”

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Private Credit Heavyweight HPS Sees ‘Huge Opportunity’ in Fund Finance

Barings Sees Global Credit Investor Pivot to Europe (Podcast)Demand for European corporate debt is rising as global investors seek to diversify out of US markets, according to Barings, the $442 billion asset manager. “US exceptionalism is a little bit more questioned, investors are increasingly concerned about US economic policy,” Mike Best, a high-yield and senior loan portfolio manager at the firm, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “That will probably in the near term, create a very strong technical demand for European assets,” says Best, who’s taking more calls from investors seeking exposure to non-US markets. Best and Flynn also discuss risks and constraints in European credit, retail distress, communication sector winners and loser, plus how to trade liability-management exercises.

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Barings Is Seeing More Credit Investor Interest in Europe Amid US Policy Mayhem

When the credit cycle turns, “the game will be over” for some private debt funds that are overly exposed to weak companies, according to Silver Point Capital. “We see every deal that’s getting done — there’s some good deals and there’s some bad deals,” Michael Gatto, the firm’s head of private side businesses, tells Bloomberg News’ Irene Garcia Perez and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “If someone is doing too many bad deals, they won’t exist,” says Gatto, referring to what generally happens when debt market liquidity dries up. Gatto and Havens also discuss Silver Point’s approach to private credit, the growth of liability management exercises and disqualified lender lists.

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Silver Point Sees ‘Game Over’ for Some Private Debt Funds When Cycle Turns

Collateralized loan obligations are a credit safe haven as highly-indebted companies get dragged down by economic slowdown, according to PGIM Fixed Income. “These structures are bulletproof,” Greg Peters, the $860 billion asset manager’s co-chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “The loan market could really come upon hard times and these structures will be fine,” says Peters, referring to higher-rated CLO tranches. Peters and Geudtner also discuss how to profit from liability management exercises, private debt relative value and growing default risk in the consumer and hospitality sectors.

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PGIM Lauds ‘Bulletproof’ CLOs as Credit Risks Rise

Credit markets are rallying but there’s elevated risk of some companies not repaying debt, according to the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “There’s a sense of complacency,” Collin Martin, the firm’s fixed income strategist, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Defaults are probably going to stay high,” says Martin, noting low interest coverage ratios among the weakest borrowers. Martin and Bakshi also discuss private credit risk, floating-rate and preferred debt opportunities, and the impact of trade wars on consumer confidence.

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Junk Companies Are in Debt Covenant 'La La Land,' Says Fox Legal

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