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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Middle East shipping disruptions are boosting US companies bruised by cheap Chinese supply, according to Sycamore Tree Capital Partners. “It really slows down the ability for some of those Asian-based chemical companies to produce,” Trey Parker, the asset manager’s co-founder and chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “You’re going to have more US- and European-based chemical companies have an inherent advantage,” Parker added. They also discuss health-care relative value, the outlook for debt defaults, a slowdown in liability management exercises and opportunity in credit secondaries.

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Sycamore Tree Tips Chemicals in Iran Jam

US companies with $770 billion in loans are hitting a wall as interest rates stay elevated, according to Davidson Kempner. “We’re in year three of what’s already the longest default cycle in 20 years,” Suzy Gibbons, the hedge fund’s head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “About a third of the market is stressed based on fundamental credit data,” she said. They also discuss liability management exercises, software defaults, distressed-debt returns and the broader impact of leveraged-debt stress on markets.

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Davidson Kempner Sees a $770 Billion Stressed Debt Opportunity

A retail exodus from business-development companies has dragged their debt to levels that are starting to look attractive, according to MFS Investment Management. “Pressure for redemptions that they’re facing likely ends up creating some opportunities within the public credit markets,” Alex Mackey, the firm’s co-chief investment officer for fixed income, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “You can line up all the public and the private BDCs and you can go through and see which ones have the leverage metrics that are most attractive,” said Mackey, whose firm oversees $622 billion in assets. They also discuss the deluge of technology sector debt issuance and how wide credit spreads would have to go before they’d look attractive.

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BDC Bond Bust Creates Opportunity for $622 Billion Asset Manager MFS

Business development company turmoil is making direct lenders cautious on corporate debt risk, according to PGIM, which oversees more than $200 billion in private credit. “It’ll have a bit of a chilling effect,” Matt Harvey, the firm’s global head of middle-market direct lending, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “As a lender you’re a little bit more conservative, you’re a little bit more rational in terms of your view on how to structure the asset, how to price it,” Harvey says. They also discuss default rates, loan marks, the consumer staples sector and relative value in European direct lending.
 
 

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PGIM Sees 'Chilling Effect' on Private Credit From BDC Storm

The plunge in software debt creates opportunities to buy cheap loans from companies that will survive AI disruption, according to Permira Credit. “The market has overreacted,” Ian Jackson, the firm’s head of strategic opportunities, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “The broad selloff in software has been such an interesting place for us because a lot of these names, we just don’t believe will go through restructuring,” says Jackson, whose company lends to technology companies. They also discuss fraud, private market stress, relative value in Europe vs. US credit and the outlook for collateralized loan obligations.

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European PE Giant Permira Looks to Buy Beaten Up Software Loans

A bank retreat from private credit piles pressure on business development companies already reeling from a wave of redemptions, according to SLR Investment Corp. “You’re starting to see banks get nervous and start to pull back,” the BDC’s co-Chief Executive Officer Michael Gross tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “It’s going to increase people’s cost of capital, which will make it harder for people to invest efficiently,” said Gross, who led Apollo Investment Corporation, part of the early wave of BDCs, before starting SLR in 2006. They also discuss software distress, how to avoid fraud and why BDCs still work for retail investors.

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BDC Veteran Expects Private Credit Fund Stress as Banks Pull Back

Third Point is getting ready to scoop up credit assets that others have to sell to raise liquidity as cracks in the market spread. “This is probably one of the most exciting times to be a credit investor,” Shalini Sriram, the hedge fund’s head of structured credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “You are seeing people trying to sell parts of the portfolio that they can,” says Sriram, who sits on the fund’s risk committee. They also discuss residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, consumer finance and collateralized loan obligations.

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Third Point Is Looking to Buy as Others Sell Amid Rising Turbulence

Consumer discretionary companies are at risk of downgrades and default if the war in the Middle East drags on, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “We’ll definitely see a bunch of companies that have been holding on finally shake out,” Jody Lurie, a BI credit analyst focused on leisure, travel and lodging, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. Car rental firms, theme parks and smaller casinos are exposed as rising gas prices crimp consumer spending. The oil rally is a windfall for energy companies, though gains at larger operators may accrue more to equity investors than bondholders. The debt of smaller independent producers may perform better, says Spencer Cutter, who covers the sector for BI.

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How to Position for a Long War in Iran

Fear of software defaults amid AI disruption creates opportunity for high-yield debt buyers, according to Capital Group, which has $3.2 trillion under management. “Markets are adopting a bit of a shoot first ask questions later strategy when it comes to software,” said Shannon Ward, a fixed income portfolio manager who serves on the firm’s fixed income management committee. “There’s going to be some baby out with the bath water when it comes to the sector — and that means bargains can be had,” she tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Steve Flynn in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss how Paramount Skydance will reshape junk credit, leveraged loan default risks and the broader impact of private market stress.

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Capital Group Spies High-Yield Software Opportunity in Debt Meltdown

Software default rates could hit double digits as AI disruption spreads and loans come due, according to Bain Capital. “We’re going to see real stress,” said Angelo Rufino, the firm’s head of special situations in North America and corporate special situations in Europe. “We will see a full credit cycle as the reckoning really comes to resize capital structures to the earnings power of these business models,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss investment-grade private credit, data center debt and asset-based finance, including the rise of music-royalty deals.

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Davidson Kempner Sees a $770 Billion Stressed Debt Opportunity

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