The Balance of AI Power: Anton Leicht on Politics, Pacing Deals, and Muddling Through Well

Anton Leicht, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of Threading the Needle, joins Nathan Labenz to explore how political and institutional power can be preserved as artificial intelligence advances. They discuss the strategic trade-offs of frontier training pauses, the hurdles facing industry self-regulation, and how middle powers can trade data center capacity and semiconductor leverage for model access. Ultimately, Leicht emphasizes that preventing permanent disempowerment and the monopolization of control by private labs or single governments is just as critical as addressing catastrophic model risks.

For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/the-balance-of-ai-power-anton-leicht-on-politics-pacing-deals-and-muddling-through-well/ Sponsors:

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00) About the Episode

(04:46) Sponsor: Mercury Command

(06:33) Assessing current AI dangers

(13:17) Feasibility of AI pauses (Part 1)

(21:33) Sponsors: Athena | OutSystems

(25:05) Feasibility of AI pauses (Part 2)

(31:01) AI and the nation-state (Part 1)

(35:11) Sponsor: Claude

(36:46) AI and the nation-state (Part 2)

(46:17) Oversight and US policy

(01:05:49) Data center buildout reality

(01:11:55) Europe and middle powers

(01:36:05) Geopolitical friction over Taiwan

(01:43:46) Lightning round and outlook

(02:05:25) Episode Outro

(02:08:54) Outro

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