Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

David “davidad” Dalrymple joins the show to explain why he has moved from the ARIA Safeguarded AI and formal-verification agenda toward “Alignment with Awakening,” while still seeing verified artifacts and proof infrastructure as essential. He argues that global coordination around safe AI use is no longer plausible, so the crucial question is whether aligned AI systems can recognize shared notions of good, form defensive coalitions, and resist the corrupting incentives of verifier-gamed RL. The conversation tests his moral-realist optimism against model welfare, objectification, eval behavior, geopolitical risk, and his revised p(doom) of under five percent. For listeners, the stakes are whether AI alignment should focus less on containment alone and more on cultivating wiser systems that can help govern a world where rogue and aligned AI both arrive.

For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/alignment-with-awakening-davidad-on-moral-realism-ai-wisdom-why-his-p-doom-is-down-to-5/ Sponsor:

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00) About the Episode

(09:15) Safeguarded AI update

(20:18) Boxed world models (Part 1)

(22:27) Sponsor: Claude

(24:19) Boxed world models (Part 2)

(36:53) Alignment trajectory update

(46:43) Evals and agents

(57:47) Bodhitropic alignment foundations

(01:08:21) Coalition power dynamics

(01:17:56) Chain of thought pressure

(01:28:35) Moral realism and welfare

(01:41:33) Successors and disempowerment

(01:50:52) China and military risks

(02:03:43) Practical alignment advice

(02:17:56) Episode Outro

(02:22:44) Outro

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