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Blockworks

The Breakdown dives into the deepest topics in crypto, blockchain, and the macro forces shaping markets and power structures. Each episode breaks down complex ideas into clear, grounded analysis — separating signal from noise across crypto, finance, and geopolitics.

Hosted by David Canellis, The Breakdown features explainers, interviews, and conversations with the people building, regulating, and challenging the financial system.

A Blockworks podcast.

Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/

The Breakdown

VVV is down 50% on news that should be good for Venice. David unpacks why — covering the token vs. equity distinction, Dragonfly's reasoning, and what the onchain data says about how many people are actually using Venice's paid features right now.

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

Venice Is Now a Crypto-AI Unicorn — But Its Token Tanked 50%

David sits down with Paul Dylan-Ennis — lecturer at University College Dublin and member of the Ethereum Foundation’s Silviculture Society — to map the split between the EF and the newly-formed ETH Labs. 

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:41) EF Silviculture Society

(03:28) Full Cypherpunk

(14:15) Roadmaps and Governance

(17:58) Capture Resistance Concerns

(24:19) What is Ethereum Success

(27:13) New Primitives and AI

(32:32) Ossification Timeline

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› Paul Dylan-Ennis — https://x.com/post_polar_

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

2 Groups Now Control Ethereum's Future. Here's What They Want.

Binance is out of the EU as of July 1 after its MICA license application in Greece was rejected. David runs through who is and isn't licensed under MICA, checks Blockworks Research for Binance's actual spot market share (~33%), and looks at whether the outflow data suggests real damage. Then: the US government is now effectively approving AI model releases — Anthropic's Mythos 5 is live for a whitelist of 100+ orgs, Fable 5 still blocked, and OpenAI just did the same thing with GPT-V.Sol. David draws the parallel to how regulation changed crypto. Finally: Meta is building a prediction market app called Arena, with Zuck reportedly pursuing partnerships with Polymarket and Kaoshi. David checks Polymarket and Kaoshi's open interest data and asks whether Meta is just late to the party again.

TIMESTAMPS:

[To be filled in]

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

Binance Needs A Friend in The European Union

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

How Strategy Insiders Insulated Themselves From the Crash

Searching for the Ethereum Foundation's Remaining Cash

Strategy’s STRC is still trading below its $100 target and has drawn comparisons to Terra Luna. David walks through how Terra Luna actually imploded, why Strategy's flywheel is meaningfully different, and the real problem he sees underneath it all. Enjoy!

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

Is Strategy Really the Next Terra Luna?

Standard Chartered just put a $100 price target on Uniswap by 2030 — a 40× move from current levels. David walks through the call, the tokenization thesis underpinning it, and how Standard Chartered's past calls on Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, BNB and AVAX have actually played out.

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to the Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

The History of Standard Chartered Megabullish Price Predictions

Anthropic released Fable V — a wrapper around its Mythos model with strict guardrails. Within 24 hours, the White House forced it offline over a jailbreak that exposed Mythos's full cyber capabilities. David walks through David Sack’s thread, the export control, and why this is the strongest case yet for running your own open-source AI at home. Plus: Blockworks just acquired Messari, and the SpaceX IPO turned into a mess on crypto exchanges. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(01:24) Anthropic

(11:57) Blockworks Acquires Messari

(14:38) SpaceX IPO

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to the Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

The US Just Made the Case for Open-Source AI

In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.

Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks

Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto

Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

Blockworks Acquires Messari

It's SpaceX IPO day, and it’s on track to be the most valuable post-IPO company in history — $1.77T, surpassing Saudi Aramco. David walks through the numbers, the pre-IPO trade on Hyperliquid, and why the edge wore off months ago. Plus: Nakamoto selling Bitcoin while Tom Lee's BitMine keeps stacking ETH, and where prediction market volumes are during the NBA Finals.

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(01:08) SpaceX IPO

(07:27) Treasury Companies

(15:47) Prediction Markets

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› David — https://x.com/dcanellis

› The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW

› The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to the Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

DISCLAIMER

As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

SpaceX Just Became the Most Valuable Post-IPO Company Ever

Today on the Brief:
 Market rally to highest point in six weeks
 BTC and ETH up in part on Grayscale ETH trust becoming an SEC reporting company (Grayscale, like CoinDesk, is a unit of DCG.)
 CBDCs (and CBDC skepticism) on the rise
 Our main discussion: How markets are trading the U.S. presidential election in November. 
 A look at what different stock and other market preferences suggests about who Wall Street expects to win, including: 
 Energy
 Private prisons
 Student loans
 Health care 
 Infrastructure
 Dollar
 Bitcoin

What the Stock Market is Predicting Around the Elections

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