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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

Bitcoin stumbles through another Sunday-night slide as gold rips to historic highs, pulling attention and liquidity away from crypto and fueling talk of a speculative metals mania layered on top of genuine macro fear. This episode digs into why gold’s breakout is happening now, how ETF outflows, loss realization, and shaken conviction are weighing on Bitcoin, and why the growing contrast between physical metal liquidity and Bitcoin’s always-on exit may ultimately reinforce the long-term thesis even as short-term sentiment stays ugly.

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Gold Mania and a Bitcoin Stall

Brian Armstrong takes Bitcoin to the World Economic Forum as Davos wrestles with the visible unraveling of the old global order, putting the Bitcoin standard, stablecoin yield, and crypto market structure squarely in front of central bankers and political leaders. This episode walks through Armstrong’s exchanges with European officials, Trump and the White House weighing in on legislation, growing pressure to strike a deal on market structure, and why the real fight now centers on stablecoin yield and DeFi protections as the industry pushes to get a bill across the finish line.

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Bitcoin Meets Davos

Markets are selling off across the board as stocks, bonds, and the dollar all fall together, signaling something bigger than a routine drawdown. This episode unpacks why the latest crash feels like a true regime shift, tying together the Japanese bond market shock, escalating trade and geopolitical conflict, and explicit declarations from global leaders that the post–Cold War rules-based order is breaking down. From Greenland to Davos to Tokyo, the common thread is uncertainty about what comes next—and what it means for risk assets, rates, and the global financial system.

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The Macro Market Crash and the End of the Old Order

Today’s episode digs into the deepening market structure fallout in Washington, tracing how Coinbase’s withdrawal from the bill triggered White House anger, exposed fractures across the crypto lobby, and reignited bipartisan resistance in the Senate, particularly around DeFi liability and stablecoin yield. The episode explores why stablecoin yield has become the central fault line between banks and crypto, with banks warning of deposit flight while critics argue the real issue is banks protecting profits at the expense of consumers, leaving the bill stuck between irreconcilable interests. The result is a pessimistic moment for crypto legislation, where momentum still exists but the path forward increasingly looks like it will require one side to cave—or the effort to collapse entirely.

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The Stablecoin Yield Standoff

Bitcoin finally delivered a jolt of life, surging to $96,000 in its biggest move of 2026 and breaking a long stretch of boredom for crypto markets. The episode unpacks why this rally may matter less for its specific catalysts and more for what it signals about liquidity, positioning, and market psychology, with reactions ranging from technical optimism to deep skepticism. It also digs into new data from Wintermute and Bitwise that suggest crypto’s market structure is maturing, liquidity is concentrating in the majors, and financial advisors are more committed than ever, even after volatility. Whether this move has legs or fizzles out, it marks a notable shift in tone for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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Bitcoin Wakes Up

Bitcoin has spent the opening weeks of 2026 trading sideways, but beneath the surface a second phase of institutional adoption is taking shape. This episode unpacks why Morgan Stanley’s move toward a Bitcoin ETF matters, how this “round two” differs from the first era of arm’s-length distribution via ETFs, and why structured products signal deeper strategic intent from Wall Street. The conversation then turns to the fragile state of U.S. market structure legislation, the fight over stablecoin yield, and why regulatory clarity is now the gating factor for the next wave of adoption. Finally, the episode explores the growing influence of ratings agencies on Bitcoin-linked products and what that means for institutional demand as the window for a true inflection point rapidly narrows.

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Phase Two of Institutional Bitcoin Adoption

A seismic escalation in the clash between the White House and the Federal Reserve as reports emerge that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation, raising unprecedented questions about central bank independence, the credibility of US institutions, and the future of the dollar. This episode breaks down what the investigation is actually about, why Powell is framing it as political retaliation, how lawmakers and markets are reacting, and what a direct assault on Fed autonomy could mean for equities, bonds, gold, Bitcoin, and America’s position at the center of the global financial system.

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Powell Under Prosecution and the End of Fed Independence

Morgan Stanley makes a major bet on crypto adoption by filing for in-house Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, a sharp reversal that signals real demand inside its massive wealth management network and another step toward crypto becoming table stakes for traditional finance. The episode also covers MSCI’s decision to keep MicroStrategy in its indexes, the resulting rebound across crypto treasury companies and miners, and why index inclusion still matters so much for price action. Finally, there’s an update from Washington, where a crypto market structure bill heads toward a contentious committee vote, with stablecoin yield, AML provisions, and banking lobby pressure setting up one of the clearest regulatory showdowns yet.

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Morgan Stanley Goes All In on Crypto

Bitcoin is off to a quietly strong start to the year, notching its longest green streak in months and pushing back toward key resistance levels, but conviction remains conditional as traders debate whether this is the start of a new leg higher or just another trap. Today’s episode looks at the mix of narratives behind the move, from options market shifts and ETF inflows to geopolitical uncertainty and simple new-year portfolio resets. It also digs into Coinbase’s renewed push to become an everything financial app, the intensifying rivalry with Robinhood, Washington’s increasingly uncertain path toward crypto market structure legislation, China’s first hard regulatory signal of the year, and why physical security risks are becoming a more central part of the crypto conversation.

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Bitcoin’s Cautious Green Start to 2026

The capture of Venezuela’s president marks one of the most aggressive geopolitical moves in years, and markets are racing to figure out what it actually means. This episode unpacks why oil barely moved despite Venezuela’s enormous headline reserves, why those reserves may be far less economically meaningful than advertised, and how the real strategic target may be China rather than energy prices. It also looks at why gold and silver surged, why Bitcoin barely flinched, and how a more openly transactional US approach to statecraft could reshape global risk pricing in the months ahead.

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Venezuela Shockwaves and the New Geopolitics of Markets

A reduction in oil output of 1.65 million barrels per day was announced by OPEC+ members on Sunday night. In the face of a global economic slowdown, analysts are debating whether the cartel is acting politically or merely anticipating softer demand. 
 Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW “The Breakdown” is written, produced and narrated by Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Michele Musso and research by Scott Hill. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. Music behind our sponsor today is “Foothill Blvd” by Sam Barsh. Image credit: by CoinDesk.

What OPEC's Surprise Oil Production Cuts Have to Do With De-Dollarization

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