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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

Markets are selling off across the board as stocks, bonds, and the dollar all fall together, signaling something bigger than a routine drawdown. This episode unpacks why the latest crash feels like a true regime shift, tying together the Japanese bond market shock, escalating trade and geopolitical conflict, and explicit declarations from global leaders that the post–Cold War rules-based order is breaking down. From Greenland to Davos to Tokyo, the common thread is uncertainty about what comes next—and what it means for risk assets, rates, and the global financial system.

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The Macro Market Crash and the End of the Old Order

Today’s episode digs into the deepening market structure fallout in Washington, tracing how Coinbase’s withdrawal from the bill triggered White House anger, exposed fractures across the crypto lobby, and reignited bipartisan resistance in the Senate, particularly around DeFi liability and stablecoin yield. The episode explores why stablecoin yield has become the central fault line between banks and crypto, with banks warning of deposit flight while critics argue the real issue is banks protecting profits at the expense of consumers, leaving the bill stuck between irreconcilable interests. The result is a pessimistic moment for crypto legislation, where momentum still exists but the path forward increasingly looks like it will require one side to cave—or the effort to collapse entirely.

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The Stablecoin Yield Standoff

Bitcoin finally delivered a jolt of life, surging to $96,000 in its biggest move of 2026 and breaking a long stretch of boredom for crypto markets. The episode unpacks why this rally may matter less for its specific catalysts and more for what it signals about liquidity, positioning, and market psychology, with reactions ranging from technical optimism to deep skepticism. It also digs into new data from Wintermute and Bitwise that suggest crypto’s market structure is maturing, liquidity is concentrating in the majors, and financial advisors are more committed than ever, even after volatility. Whether this move has legs or fizzles out, it marks a notable shift in tone for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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Bitcoin Wakes Up

Bitcoin has spent the opening weeks of 2026 trading sideways, but beneath the surface a second phase of institutional adoption is taking shape. This episode unpacks why Morgan Stanley’s move toward a Bitcoin ETF matters, how this “round two” differs from the first era of arm’s-length distribution via ETFs, and why structured products signal deeper strategic intent from Wall Street. The conversation then turns to the fragile state of U.S. market structure legislation, the fight over stablecoin yield, and why regulatory clarity is now the gating factor for the next wave of adoption. Finally, the episode explores the growing influence of ratings agencies on Bitcoin-linked products and what that means for institutional demand as the window for a true inflection point rapidly narrows.

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Phase Two of Institutional Bitcoin Adoption

A seismic escalation in the clash between the White House and the Federal Reserve as reports emerge that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation, raising unprecedented questions about central bank independence, the credibility of US institutions, and the future of the dollar. This episode breaks down what the investigation is actually about, why Powell is framing it as political retaliation, how lawmakers and markets are reacting, and what a direct assault on Fed autonomy could mean for equities, bonds, gold, Bitcoin, and America’s position at the center of the global financial system.

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Powell Under Prosecution and the End of Fed Independence

Morgan Stanley makes a major bet on crypto adoption by filing for in-house Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, a sharp reversal that signals real demand inside its massive wealth management network and another step toward crypto becoming table stakes for traditional finance. The episode also covers MSCI’s decision to keep MicroStrategy in its indexes, the resulting rebound across crypto treasury companies and miners, and why index inclusion still matters so much for price action. Finally, there’s an update from Washington, where a crypto market structure bill heads toward a contentious committee vote, with stablecoin yield, AML provisions, and banking lobby pressure setting up one of the clearest regulatory showdowns yet.

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Morgan Stanley Goes All In on Crypto

Bitcoin is off to a quietly strong start to the year, notching its longest green streak in months and pushing back toward key resistance levels, but conviction remains conditional as traders debate whether this is the start of a new leg higher or just another trap. Today’s episode looks at the mix of narratives behind the move, from options market shifts and ETF inflows to geopolitical uncertainty and simple new-year portfolio resets. It also digs into Coinbase’s renewed push to become an everything financial app, the intensifying rivalry with Robinhood, Washington’s increasingly uncertain path toward crypto market structure legislation, China’s first hard regulatory signal of the year, and why physical security risks are becoming a more central part of the crypto conversation.

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Bitcoin’s Cautious Green Start to 2026

The capture of Venezuela’s president marks one of the most aggressive geopolitical moves in years, and markets are racing to figure out what it actually means. This episode unpacks why oil barely moved despite Venezuela’s enormous headline reserves, why those reserves may be far less economically meaningful than advertised, and how the real strategic target may be China rather than energy prices. It also looks at why gold and silver surged, why Bitcoin barely flinched, and how a more openly transactional US approach to statecraft could reshape global risk pricing in the months ahead.

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Venezuela Shockwaves and the New Geopolitics of Markets

Bitcoin enters 2026 in a strange and unfamiliar place, coming off a flat year, a post-halving cycle that never caught fire, and a market defined more by boredom than euphoria or panic. This episode catches up on everything that happened over the holiday break, from Bitcoin’s muted price action and crushed altcoins to ETF flows, institutional positioning, and the growing sense that the four-year cycle may be fading.

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Bitcoin Starts 2026 in Uncharted Territory

The final episode of the year looks back at the forces that actually mattered for Bitcoin and crypto in 2025, and it’s not price. The conversation unpacks how institutional adoption turned Bitcoin into a normalized asset class across TradFi, how the regulatory environment shifted from crackdown to clarity through guidance, enforcement reversals, and stablecoin legislation, and how Trump-era crypto politics shaped the narrative without fully derailing the agenda. Then the focus turns forward to the three themes most likely to define 2026: tokenization and stablecoin implementation battles, the return of quantum risk as a real investor-facing question, and a macro setup dominated by Fed leadership uncertainty and a wide distribution of rate-cut outcomes. In the headlines: a year of normalization sets the stage for a year of infrastructure.

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The 2025 Bitcoin Year in Review

Raoul Pal is the CEO of Real Vision. On this “Paradigm Shift” episode of The Breakdown, NLW and Raoul discuss:
 Raoul’s concept of “The Everything Code” and “The Exponential Age”
 
 Debt monetization
 
 The multipollar world
 
 De-dollarization
 
 Money for a trustless world
 
 AI and consensus reality 
 
 AI as the Biggest Disinflationary shock ever 
 
 And much much more
 
 
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 NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw
 
 Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW
 
 “The Breakdown” is written, produced and hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW. Research is by Scott Hill. Editing is by Rob Mitchell and Kyle Barbour-Hoffman. Our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach.

Raoul Pal Previews the Future: AI, Crypto, QE and the next Phase of Human Flourishing or Upheaval

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