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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

October has a reputation as Bitcoin’s strongest month, and so far 2025 is no exception. After a choppy September, BTC is already pushing back toward new all-time highs, shrugging off a government shutdown and showing signs of strong demand. Analysts are debating whether this is the setup for another monster Q4, with some even eyeing $200,000 by year end. We also look at how the shutdown is stalling crypto ETF approvals, new IRS guidance that saved MicroStrategy billions, Stripe’s stablecoin launch, and why some believe Tether could become the world’s most profitable company.

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Bitcoin’s Favorite Month Has Arrived

As of midnight, the U.S. government has officially shut down after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a last-minute deal. In today’s Breakdown, NLW explores the political brinkmanship behind the shutdown, how the White House may use it to reshape federal programs, and the macroeconomic fallout as millions of workers go unpaid. From consumer confidence and labor market risks to gold at all-time highs, Bitcoin resilience, and AI’s outsized role in holding up U.S. growth, we examine whether this shutdown could be the shock that tips the economy into recession—or just another political spectacle markets shrug off.

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Government Shutdown Hits as Politics Markets and AI Collide

After years of turf wars, the SEC and CFTC are finally signaling a new era of collaboration. At their first joint roundtable in 14 years, agency heads emphasized coordination over consolidation, while industry voices clashed over tokenization standards and compliance. We also break down the SEC’s first crypto no-action letter in five years, Binance’s new white-label push for TradFi, SWIFT’s blockchain integration plans, and the latest on Bitcoin’s September slide and October ETF outlook.

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SEC & CFTC Call a Truce on Crypto Regulation

Fortune revealed that Kraken quietly raised $500 million at a $15 billion valuation—its first significant raise in over a decade—as the exchange eyes a 2026 IPO. Bloomberg followed up with reports of another potential $200–300 million round at a $20 billion valuation. We dig into what this means for Kraken’s future, the escalating scale of Tether’s $500 billion fundraise, growing scrutiny of crypto treasury companies, and SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s farewell vision for a new era of crypto regulation.

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Kraken’s $15B Secret Raise and the Race to IPO

In this week’s Friday Five, we dive into Tether’s jaw-dropping $500B valuation bid, the SEC’s surprise innovation exemption, bipartisan momentum on a market structure bill, Ethereum’s latest Wall Street narrative, and breaking news that even Vanguard is finally letting customers buy crypto ETFs. Plus, what Bitcoin’s bloody September tells us about the cycle ahead.

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Friday Five: Tether’s $500B Play, SEC Opens the Door, and Vanguard Bows to Crypto

Coinbase and Cloudflare are pushing forward with X402, a new crypto-powered payments protocol for AI agents. Could agent-to-agent transactions reshape e-commerce and the web itself? Meanwhile, Tom Lee is pitching Ethereum as Wall Street’s neutral chain of choice—even as critics push back—and Michael Saylor doubles down on Bitcoin as the true foundation of digital capital markets.

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Agentic Payments and the Next Internet Economy

Tether is reportedly courting outside investors for the first time—at a staggering $500 billion valuation. In today’s Breakdown, NLW digs into Bloomberg’s report on Tether’s $15–20 billion fundraise, why Cantor Fitzgerald is leading the deal, and what this unprecedented move could mean for crypto, stablecoins, and global finance. Plus, updates on CZ’s venture fund and new SEC and CFTC regulatory initiatives.

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Tether’s Half-Trillion Dollar Valuation

Bitcoin’s September rally finally stumbled, with a 3.5% drop triggering $1.7B in long liquidations—the biggest of the year. While traders were caught offside, on-chain data shows holders aren’t selling, ETF flows remain mixed, and big treasury buys continue. NLW breaks down why this reset matters, how leverage is shaping the market, and what it means as we head into Q4.

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Bitcoin’s September Shakeout: $1.7B in Liquidations Sets Stage for Q4

On today’s Breakdown, NLW looks at the latest twists in the crypto market structure bill. A group of 12 Senate Democrats is pushing for true bipartisan authorship, raising the stakes as time runs short to move the legislation forward this year. We examine what their demands could mean for stablecoins, DeFi, and the overall momentum of U.S. crypto regulation. Plus, updates on Treasury’s next steps for the Genius Act, Greyscale’s new crypto index fund, and Bito’s IPO filing.

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Senate Democrats Push for Bipartisan Role in Crypto Market Structure Bill

In this week’s Friday Five, NLW digs into why Bitcoin’s September performance is surprising markets, what the Fed’s anticlimactic rate cut means for the economy, and how new SEC approvals are reshaping the ETF landscape. He also breaks down Google and Coinbase’s new agent payment protocol for stablecoins, explores fresh token news from Base and MetaMask, and looks at the latest stablecoin and crypto policy moves in the US and UK.

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The Five Most Important Stories in Crypto This Week

NLW explores macro turmoil, including the growing (at least in analysts' estimation) possibility of a recession. He also looks at how it's impacting the crypto markets.

Sponsored by: 

Ledger
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors The Breakdown podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world’s crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now on Ledger.com.

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Markets Get Spooked By Recession Possibility

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