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Bloomberg


Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.


Odd Lots

Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, that it's crazy to think about cutting rates. You could also argue that much of the economy is stalling, that the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically, and that with housing in the tank, we need lower rates. Then on top of this situation, layer in the fact that we have this weird bifurcated economy, with the AI sector growing like gangbusters. And then add onto that the attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve coming from the Trump administration. And furthermore, trade policy is still a moving target. To make sense of this complicated time — and to look ahead to next week's Jackson Hole conference — we speak with Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America.
 
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Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on This Moment in Macro

We're in an age where shocks can occur on both the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, the causes are well known. Pandemics, trade wars, and climate disruption have exposed the frailty of supply chains in goods too numerous to list. On the demand side, the tendency for certain goods to suddenly go "viral" among consumers can be impossible to predict. Take Dubai chocolate. The craze for pistachio-filled candy came out of nowhere, in part thanks to social media. Our guests on this episode are super bullish on a different nut. Burton Flynn and Ivan Nechunaev are managing partners at Terra Nova Capital Advisors, where they look for unusual investments in frontier markets all around the world. On this episode, they tell us about their bull case for hazelnuts, including where they're grown, the economics of hazelnut agriculture, and the limited ways of playing this popular nut.
 
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The Investors Who Think Hazelnuts Will Be the Next Pistachios

We're interested in trucking here at Odd Lots. It's one of those industries that can tell us a lot about the economy, both in terms of the short-term cycle, and also long-term structural trends. Of course, we know that the industry is prone to big boom and bust cycles. And Alaska itself -- driven so much by oil and natural resource extraction -- is also known for its boom and bust cycles. So on our trip there, we spoke with Josh Norum, the CEO of Sourdough Express, an Alaska based trucking company that's been around for over a century. We talked about how the business works, the history of the company, the current economic environment, tariffs, and the unique challenge (and opportunity) of moving freight in America's northernmost state.
 
Read more:
Uber Freight Founder Joins Autonomous Big Rig Startup Waabi
Driverless Trucks Lumber Along With Safety-First Approach
 
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How to Move Freight Across the Icy Roads of Alaska

Alaska is no stranger to supply chain issues and a higher cost of living. Almost everything has to be imported into the state, incurring longer lead times and extra transportation costs — and that’s even before adding in the new tariffs from the Trump administration. In this episode, we speak with Dave Cavitt, the founder and CEO of Furniture Enterprises of Alaska, which owns furniture stores for brands including La-Z-Boy, Mattress Firm, Ashley’s Furniture, and many more. We talk to him about the logistical challenges of selling furniture in Alaska, consumer demand right now, the impact of the tariffs, and much more.
 
Read more:
Who Loses the Most From Trump’s Tariffs? Who Wins?
US, Japan Working to Announce Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Stack
 
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What an Alaskan Furniture Company Tells Us About Tariffs

Alaska is one of the states in the Federal Reserve's 12th District, which is headquartered in San Francisco. For Mary Daly, the head of the SF Fed, the state right now is a leading indicator for the US economy overall. In an interview recorded on a trip to Anchorage, Daly tells us what she's learning from businesses in the state, how it relates to the rest of the US economy, and how she uses what she's learning on the ground in order to best guide monetary policy. We also get her big picture views on structural trends such as AI and an aging workforce, and why she's growing increasingly confident that the tariffs will not contribute to sustained upward pressure on inflation.

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Mary Daly on Why Alaska Is a Leading Indicator for the US Economy

The Chinese Communist Party is probably one of the most difficult entities in the world to grasp due to its opacity of its inner workings. A new book from Joseph Torigian, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover History Lab and an associate professor at American University, sheds light on the entity by examining the life of Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping. The elder Xi was one of the earliest and important players in the revolution, and his life trajectory -- having spent 16 years out of power during the Cultural Revolution -- offers a lens into how the party operates. On this episode, we discuss Xi Zhongxun's life, the constant pressure to stay on the correct line, and what his struggles might tell us about how his son rules China today.
 
Read more:
China Draws Red Lines on US Chip Tracking With Nvidia Meeting
The AI Showdown: How the US and China Stack Up
 
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Joseph Torigian on Xi Zhongxun and Elite Chinese Communist Party Politics

Late last week, Donald Trump shocked Wall Street by firing Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency responsible for publishing some of America's most important economic data. The firing came after the BLS released a weaker than expected jobs report for July, with just 73,000 new jobs added for the month (compared to forecasts for 103,000). The bureau also revised jobs numbers for the prior two months down by nearly 260,000 jobs. Trump called the data "rigged." But why does the BLS make these revisions, and what does the firing of the BLS chief mean for anyone trying to gauge the direction of the US economy? In this episode, we speak to Bill Beach, a former BLS chief, about the latest drama in US economic statistics.
 
Read more:
Trump to Name New Fed Governor, BLS Head in Coming Days
S&P 500 Bounces 1% After Weak Jobs Data Stokes Rate-Cut Optimism
 
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Bill Beach on How Trump Just Politicized US Economic Data

When it comes to tech startups, you often hear about VCs making a ton of money, or founders experiencing life-changing exits. But something is changing in the world of AI. Now it's the engineers themselves getting pay packages that can be in the 9-figure range. Why is this? Why is it happening? How is it changing the culture of Silicon Valley and business more generally? On this episode, we speak with John Coogan and Jordi Hays, the co-hosts of TBPN, a daily show about technology, which covers the industry in a sports-like manner. We talk about the economics of these transactions, why they make sense, and who are the industry's top superstars.
 
Read more:
Meta Seizes Its Moment to Spend Aggressively in the AI Race
Apple Rebound Looks Elusive as AI Woes Draw Investor Scrutiny
 
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The AI Industry Is Becoming Like Professional Sports

Everybody knows that New York City has a ton of pizzerias. And yet, new ones are opening up all the time. Why do we need more? And how is there still money to be made? On this episode, we speak with Alex Xenopolous, Evan Xenopolous, and James Shields, three restaurant entrepreneurs that recently opened up Xeno's Pizza, a shop close to the Bloomberg offices in Manhattan. We talked about everything from location scouting, to the cost of ingredients, to oven technology, the state of New York City, and how any given establishment differentiates their brand in the hopes of making money by selling what on the surface looks like an abundant, commoditized market.
 
Read more:
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/5-top-new-york-city-restaurants-to-try-right-now-summer-2025
 
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How to Make Money Selling Pizza in New York City

Bakeries are great microcosms of the economy. There's lots of labor involved. You need commodities like flours and eggs, plus energy for your ovens. You need capital investment to get the ovens in the first place, and you need sustained consumer demand to keep you in business. Put it all together and you have a business that tells you a lot about what's going on right now. In this episode, we speak with Andy Kadin, who is the owner of the Los Angeles-based bakery Bub & Grandma's, as well as a sandwich shop and a soon-to-open pizzeria. We talk about what the bread business entails, how much money people are spending right now, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on food costs.
 
Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox - now delivered every weekday - plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

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What an LA Bakery Says About the Economy Right Now

Zoltan Pozsar has built a reputation for covering the intricacies of money markets. For the past eight years, he published those insights as a strategist at Credit Suisse. But in this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Pozsar reveals his next career move following his departure from the Swiss bank earlier this year. He also gives us an update on his Bretton Woods III thesis, or the idea that the global financial system is going through a "monetary divorce" from US dollar hegemony and becoming more multi-polar. He also gives us his take on the recent banking crisis and what it means for global funding markets going forward.

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Zoltan Pozsar on His Next Big Move and the Coming Monetary Divorce

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