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Bloomberg


Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.


Odd Lots

Even before Trump's victory in 2024, it was becoming clear that the Fed would come under political pressure like never before. The first year of the new administration bore that out. Not only had Fed Chairman Jerome Powell come under tremendous pressure over interest rate policy and the cost of office renovations, Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Cook case will soon be argued in front of the Supreme Court, but now we have another earthquake. On Sunday night, the news broke that Powell had been served with a subpoena from the DOJ, raising the potential for criminal charges. Powell himself, who has assiduously tried to avoid the controversy, blasted the move as a form of revenge for the administration's displeasure with his interest rate policy. So where does this leave us now? On this episode, we speak with Lev Menand, a professor at Columbia Law School at the author of the Fed Unbound. He explains where things sit not with Fed independence, and why the DOJ's role here takes the fight to a whole new level.
 
Read more:
Dollar Drops Most in Three Weeks as Fed Gets Subpoenas
‘Sell America’ Trade Is Revived by Trump’s Latest Fed Attack
 
Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
 
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The Fight Over Fed Independence Just Got Taken To a Whole New Level

For a long time, you could make plenty of money and sleep easy at night with a simple 60/40 portfolio. You put 60% of your money in stocks and 40% in Treasuries. The stocks generally went up. The Treasuries cushioned you during times of volatility and provided income. Then we got the worst inflation in 40 years, and the Treasury part of those portfolios got obliterated. So does it still work? And if not, how should an investor think about their own personal allocations to various asset classes. On this episode, we speak with Cullen Roche, the founder and CIO of Discipline Funds and the author of the new book, Your Perfect Portfolio: The ultimate guide to using the world's most powerful investing strategies. His book goes through a number of different ideas in portfolio construction, talking about their pluses and minuses, as well as their history. In this conversation, he explains his general philosophy and how one should think about evaluating a person's circumstances to optimally design an investment portfolio.

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Cullen Roche on the Art of Building a Perfect Portfolio

In some sense, the arrest of Maduro is nothing unusual. For over 200 years, the US viewed the entirety of the Western hemisphere as its legitimate domain for intervention. And of course, there's a long history of the US getting involved with Latin America specifically. But what is the Monroe Doctrine? And how does Trump's foreign policy fit into it. On this episode, we speak with Greg Grandin, a professor of history at Yale and author of America, América. Greg has extensively researched American activity in Latin America across his career. He explains the historical patterns of when America asserts its dominance in the region, and how that fits into other American policy priorities both abroad and at home.
 
Read more:
Post-Maduro 124% Rally Stuns Venezuela’s Battered Stock Exchange
Trump’s Team Orders Big Oil Into Venezuela: ‘Do It for Our Country’
 
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Greg Grandin on how the Monroe Doctrine Became the Donroe Doctrine

There are a bunch of questions right now about the future of Venezuela, and one of the big ones is what's going to happen to its circa $170 billion pile of debt. Some investors have been snapping up defaulted Venezuelan bonds, betting that a future restructuring could hand them a hefty payout. Others argue that the Venezuelan people shouldn't be saddled with debt issued by an authoritarian regime. In this episode, we speak with the legendary lawyer Lee Buchheit. Lee has worked on more than two dozen sovereign debt restructurings over the course of a 40-year career, including those of Iraq and Greece. He explains how a Venezuelan debt workout might unfold and the unique challenges that arise when trying to restructure the obligations of a sovereign nation.
 
Read more:
Santander, BBVA and Deutsche Lead $3 Billion Repo for Argentina
Donation From Century-Old Fund Cuts UK Debt by £607 Million
 
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Here's What Could Happen to Venezuela's Messy $170 Billion of Debt

Venezuela is sitting on, by some measures, the biggest oil reserves in the world. And yet, in the immediate wake of Maduro's capture by US forces, the actual price of oil has moved very little. So what gives? And what are the stakes for the industry? On this episode, we speak with Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group. Greg has the perfect background for this conversation, because in addition to closely monitoring both the oil industry and the global geopolitical environment, he's a trained historian. So we talk about the long history of the Venezuelan oil industry, starting in its boom years, and then its ultimate decline amid nationalization, corruption, sanctions, and blockades. He explains to us the potential huge costs of restarting production, the actual logic behind the arrest, as well as potential fallout across Latin America, and with Venezuela's friends, such as Iran, China, and Cuba.
 
Read more:
Trump Says Venezuela to Send US Up to 50 Million Barrels of Oil
Slumping Mideast Oil Market Adds to Signs of Global Weakness
 
Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
 
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This Is What Maduro's Arrest Means for the Oil Market

Every year, regional Federal Reserve banks host some of the most substantive — and under-the-radar — events in the central banking world: research conferences. Behind the formal papers and dense macro models, this is where much of the Fed’s intellectual groundwork for monetary policy first starts to take shape. On this episode, we take you inside the Boston Fed's 69th annual Economic Conference to hear what the economists are actually debating, how they choose the questions that matter most, and what happens when the evidence — or egos — clash. Along the way, we talk to Fed researchers, outside academics, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins about how this kind of work influences policy in the real world.
 
Watch all the presentations at the Boston Fed's website
 
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What Really Happens at a Fed Research Conference

When the Odd Lots team was down in Washington DC earlier this year, we had a phenomenal meal at a restaurant called Butterworth's. As it turns out, the restaurant is one of the hottest hangouts for the MAGA crowd, with Steve Bannon and others frequently seen in its dining room. Of course, restaurants are difficult businesses in normal conditions, but in DC, you have the added factor that political cycles are changing all the time, and different bars and restaurants become associated with specific parties who go in and out of power. On this episode, we speak with Bart Hutchins, the chef-owner at the restaurant. We talk about everything from sourcing ingredients from small Amish farms, to acquiring beef tallow, and dining room logistics. We also talk about food costs, labor availability, and how the intense worker shortages and price inflation of the post-2020 period still affects how the restaurant is run today.
 
Read more:
A Former Soho House Executive Is Changing London’s Restaurant Scene
DoorDash Tests AI Social App to Help Users Find Restaurants
 
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The Business of Butterworth's, the Hottest New Restaurant in Washington DC

It's that time of the year. On this episode, Tracy and Joe answer questions from listeners that were submitted via voice note. We talk about everything from Chinese history to whales to whether or not we ever hold an episode without publishing it.
 
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Tracy and Joe Answer All Your Questions

2025 was an extraordinary year, with the real economy defying recession worries and equity markets putting up monster returns. So can this be repeated again in 2026? On this episode, we speak with two of the top minds at Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius is the bank's chief economist and head of research and Ben Snider is its chief US equity strategist. We review what really happened in 2025, talking about the impact of both AI and the tariffs, as well as how these factors will impact the real economy and stocks next year.
 
Read more:
Larry Ellison, Not Elon Musk, Was The Tech Titan Who Defined 2025
Why 2026 Is Poised to Be Another Rocky Year for Global Trade
 
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Goldman's Hatzius and Snider on the Outlook for 2026

Hello Odd Lots listeners! As we take a break for the holidays we'd like to take a moment and bring you an episode by one of our sister shows here at Bloomberg Podcasts, Merryn Talks Money. 
 
In this special two-part series, John Stepek and Merryn Somerset Webb tell the extraordinary story of John Law: a fugitive Scots gambler who became the most powerful financier in France and helped invent the modern monetary system. From murder and exile to paper money, banking revolutions and spectacular collapse, Law’s life reveals why today’s financial system works the way it does—and why it sometimes blows up. It’s history, scandal and monetary theory rolled into one irresistible tale.
 
We used a range of sources for this podcast but two key books to read if you'd like to find out more are:
John Law: A Scottish Adventurer of the Eighteenth Century (2018), by James Buchan
John Law: Economic Theorist and Policy-Maker (1997), by Antoin Murphy

Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Merryn Talks Money podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcasts

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Merryn Talks Money: John Law, The Gambler Who Invented Modern Money (Part 1)

For a long time, the world of derivatives trading was a niche thing, largely occupied by professional investors who used them for hedging purposes. During the pandemic and the Robinhood boom, the retail masses started discovering them, and activity exploded. Since then, the use of options, swaps and other levered positions has grown among both individual traders and the big professionals on Wall Street. There are countless influencers on social media promising "guaranteed" returns from various options selling strategies. New ETFs have been launched that embed derivatives inside them. And institutions which might historically have employed simple, sleepy investments, are now making them part of their core mix. So how did this happen, and what effect is it having on the market? On this episode, we speak with Benn Eifert, partner at QVR Advisors, about the evolution of this world, why you should not get your trading advice from Instagram, and how this trend has reshaped the entire market.
 
Read more: World’s Largest Options Market Weathers Indian Regulatory Curbs
 
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This Is How Derivatives Trading Swallowed the Entire Market

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