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Bloomberg

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday

Odd Lots

Last August, President Trump made the unprecedented choice of moving to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The administration claimed she was being terminated with cause, citing an ongoing investigation in alleged mortgage fraud committed by Cook. The legal battle between Cook and the administration has been tangled in the courts for the last year, eventually reaching the Supreme Court. This June, in a 5-4 decision, the court ruled in favor of Cook. However at the same time, in a different case, the court allowed the President to fire individual members of the FTC, undermining its role as quasi-independent body not beholden to the executive branch. So what are the implications here? How can the court change the status of a body like the FTC while allowing the Fed to continue operating as is? And for how long will the Fed maintain some amount of operational autonomy? On this episode we speak with Columbia Law School's Lev Menand who just wrote a piece on these two cases for Just Security called The Federal Reserve Exception to the Slaughter Rule as well as Nathan Tankus (writer and president of Notes on the Crises). The two of them lay out the consequences of these two decisions and they dig into the generations-long legal history, starting with Alexander Hamilton, that explains how we got here.

Read more: Can Trump Still Fire Lisa Cook After Her Supreme Court Win?

 
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Lev Menand and Nathan Tankus on Why Fed Independence Is Now Hanging by a Thread

American sports fans have long been comfortable talking in the language of stats and analytics. Soccer embraced the 'moneyball' revolution later; the sport was once perceived as too complex to model analytically — there were too many players on the pitch, the game's progression was too random and chaotic to reliably predict. That's no longer the case, and soccer watchers are well aware of stats like xG (Expected Goals) and each match is an opportunity for a team to mine data, whether its tracking data, on-ball data, or even analyzing body poses and movement. Today, we speak with two soccer analytics veterans, Mike Treacy (head of risk at Apex Fintech Solutions) and Joris Bekkers (a soccer analytics consultant). Treacy's background includes a stint in analytics for a Premier League team and he's currently advising the MLS team Austin FC while Bekkers has built software that analyzes raw soccer data and he's worked with the US Soccer Federation. We talk to them about how VAR has affected the sport, how data analytics can capture ineffable things like hustle, how European leagues and the MLS differ in their analytics strategy, and why chess and soccer are not so dissimilar.
 
Read more:
The Lawyer Taking On StubHub Over World Cup Ticket Sales
Polymarket Partners With Crypto Firm During World Cup
 
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Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading

On July 14, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a one-year moratorium on new large data center projects in the state. It's the nation's first such pause at a time when anti-data center politics is on the rise around the country. But Hochul insists that she's not anti-AI, and that she's an avid user of the technology, as well as a believer that it can be a force for economic growth. On this episode, we talk to Hochul about the logic of the pause, and what she hopes it will achieve. We also discuss energy and housing stress in the state, and what it would take for New York to welcome in driverless cars.

Read more: Meta’s Louisiana Data Center to Surpass $250 Billion Price Tag

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NY Governor Kathy Hochul on Her One Year Data Center Moratorium

It seems obvious that among the many industries that AI might disrupt, the legal profession might face some of the most adverse outcomes. When clerical, research-based tasks like searching through databases and reading contracts are automated, what is left for lawyers to do and how might they justify all those billable hours? In this episode we speak with Gary Wingens, chair and partner at the law firm Lowenstein Sandler. He talks about how his firm is using AI and why he thinks the technology could end up increasing legal work for lawyers as costs come down, creating a sort of “Jevon's paradox” for lawsuits, deals and litigation. We also talk about the billable hours model and training junior talent.

Read more: AI Legal Startup Norm Valued at $1.2 Billion Funding Round

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Why AI Might Actually Create More Work for Lawyers

Retail participation in the stock market is booming. And of course the biggest story in markets is the AI trade, which has created an incredible amount of demand for chips and memory. These two broad themes have come together in the form of leveraged, single-stock ETFs. And while these products are popular in the US, the scale coming out of Korea is enormous. It's a good week to talk about this intersection, because some of the biggest stories of the week include Samsung's earnings and SK Hynix's new US listing. Barclays's Global Head of Equities Tactical Strategies Alexander Altmann has used the word “terrifying” to describe the amount of notional exposure coming from these levered ETFs. He explains to us why that is and we talk to him about why, in such a short period of time, the world of levered ETFs has gotten to be so large, with AUM increasing threefold in Asia alone. He also us gets into how he is thinking through risk management and how we as society — and retail investors in particular — got to be overexposed on equities and why that keeps him up at night.
 
Read: SK Hynix’s $26.5 Billion Listing Reopens Asia Route to US Market

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The Korean Levered ETFs Shaking Markets All Around the World

We've gone through a number of a technological revolutions in investing, whether it was the dawn of the high frequency trading era or the introduction of robotraders. When it comes to AI, the big question that remains in the investment context is whether or not the technology will be implemented like those past tech innovations — meaning it will be integrated into the flow of the business without upending everything as we know it — or if AI will transform the very nature of investing. Right now, AI's use in investing is a mixed bag: People are excited about its potential, but several firms are still trying to figure out its value. Today, we speak with Man Group's CTO Gary Collier and Head of Data and AI Tushara Fernando about how one of the largest publicly-traded hedge funds in the world is actually implementing AI into its work. We speak with them about empowering their quants with AI tools, the challenge of integrating AI safely, and the creative ways their staff is thinking about token spending, which is up 86-fold this year.
 

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One of the World's Largest Hedge Funds on Its 86x Growth in Token Spending

Here's a couple things about prediction markets. A lot of it is pure gambling and speculation, much of it on things with very little economic relevance. Another fact is that in all likelihood, if you yourself started trading right now, you'd probably lose your shirt. But there is money being made by some dedicated traders, really focused on areas like politics and economics. On this episode, we speak with Brian Golden and Daniel Reichman, who are part of a private Discord called Maga Kiwi Club, where serious prediction markets traders swap ideas and make real money. We discuss the remarkable efforts they go to in order to spot opportunities, the systematic biases among traders, how they feel about insider trading, and other major issues that surround the space. Alongside Brian and Daniel, we also speak with NYC-based journalist and producer Adam Iscoe, who recently profiled these traders for The New York Times Magazine.
 
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These Are the Sharps Actually Making Money on Prediction Markets

In June, grocery giant Aldi opened a store just off of Times Square in Manhattan. It's the company's first location in Midtown and, according to their US Chief Commercial Officer Scott Patton, Aldi has to orchestrate a "logistical symphony" to get groceries into the middle of one of the busiest places in America. For instance, they use shorter trucks to navigate the tight corners of New York City streets. On this episode, we speak with Patton about what it took to open this specific Aldi and why they chose a busy tourist location like Times Square. He also explains how the company — famous for its low prices — is able to sell even wagyu ground beef at a consumer-friendly price point, how the mostly private-label grocer thinks through which name brands to incorporate into their stock, Aldi's cult-favorite "Aisle of Shame," a short history of barcode innovation, and how GLP-1s are changing consumer habits.
 
Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

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How a Major Grocery Store Chain Can Dramatically Lower the Cost of Food

There's this weird contradiction that hovers almost all conversations regarding the Chinese economy. On the one hand, the growth and rising material prosperity is undeniable. And of course, Chinese industrial giants are at the frontier in all kinds of things, like batteries. On the other hand, you always hear about a soft domestic market, and a general state of unease among workers who fear that precarity is around the corner. So how is this contradiction explained? And how does it affect day-to-day life? On this episode, we bring back one of our regular guests Dan Wang, who recently returned from a long trip to Shanghai. We discuss his observations, the general ennui he saw, the signs of domestic weakness, and the way in which phone culture is reshaping Chinese society.

Read more: It’s Too Soon to Breathe Easy on China’s Economy

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What Dan Wang Saw on His Last Trip to China

In the China tech space, Baidu is now a full-stack player in the AI industry. The company makes its own chips, has its own AI models (Ernie), its own cloud system, and it's integrating AI into its self-driving car business, Apollo Go. But before all this, Baidu was known for being China's leader in search. Things, obviously, have changed a lot since the company was founded in the late 1990s. In today's episode, we speak with Baidu CFO Henry He about the company's AI ambitions. He talks to us about maximizing token spend, how Chinese tech firms are thinking about safety and alignment, the global robotaxi competition, and how the core search business fits into the company now.
 
Read more:
Chinese AI Stocks Rally on Demand Optimism and Policy Support
US Seeks AI Partnership With EU on Regulation, Supply Chains
 
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Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

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NY Governor Kathy Hochul on Her One Year Data Center Moratorium

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