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The Investor's Podcast Network

Presented by The Investors Podcast Network with over 10 million downloads — home to the popular We Study Billionaires podcast, The Intrinsic Value Podcast is a new show focused on breaking down businesses, estimating their intrinsic value per share, and deciding whether they should be added to an ongoing portfolio of stocks built out each week. From assessing the monopoly power of Google to determining the fair value of publicly-traded sports franchises, no topics is off limits in the pursuit of understanding as many different businesses as possible and putting together the ultimate long-term stock portfolio.

Every week, The Intrinsic Value Podcast will you help get smarter about business, valuation, and investing — don’t miss out on the journey!
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Millennial Investing - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), the advertising machine behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp that reaches 3.6 billion people every day — over 40% of the world's population — and just grew ad revenue 27% to a nearly $240 billion annual run rate. Yet the stock trades more than 20% below its highs, because the money is going out even faster than it's coming in: operating margins fell from 43% to 31% in a single year, quarterly free cash flow collapsed from $8.5 billion to $784 million, and capex guidance now sits at $130–145 billion this year — with analysts penciling in $200 billion for next.

Daniel and Shawn dig into what all that spending actually buys. Is this Mark Zuckerberg's third failed attempt to turn Meta into a platform — after the FarmVille-era Facebook apps and a $100 billion metaverse — or does AI finally make the vision real, whether through AI glasses, a personal agent, a budding cloud business, or an ad engine where every pixel becomes sellable inventory? They also cover Meta's $17 billion settlement with 47 states over teen safety, the special purpose vehicles keeping tens of billions of data-center debt off Meta's balance sheet, why Apple is quietly taking the opposite side of Meta's bet, and why Wall Street rewards Google for the same capex it punishes Meta for. In the end, Daniel rebuilds his valuation model from scratch and decides whether Meta finally earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:45) About Zuckerberg’s Platform Dream

(00:11:30) Why Meta was sued and how it settled

(00:20:53) What the regulatory risk means for Meta’s future

(00:28:33) What Meta’s AI vision looks like

(00:37:30) How AI could revolutionize Meta’s Ads Business

(00:40:47) About the optionality of WhatsApp

(00:48:13) Why AI could make Meta glasses a success

(01:02:20) How Meta is planning to build a Cloud Business

(01:18:40) Meta's valuation discussion

(01:22:47) How much Meta's stock is actually worth

(01:22:57) Whether META will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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 Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Zuckerberg’s WSJ Article – The AI Future is for Everyone.

 Ben Thompson’s Research at Stratechery.

 Check out the original Meta episode.

 Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.

 Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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TIVP099 (Video): Meta (META): What the Market Misses w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Alphabet nearly two years after Shawn's original pitch, tracing how the company transformed from a cash-rich, buyback-driven business into an aggressive spender on AI infrastructure. They walk through what changed across Search, YouTube, Cloud, and Waymo, and unpack why the market's fears around AI disrupting Google were largely unfounded. Along the way, they dig into how Alphabet is funding its buildout, what that means for shareholders, and which questions will determine whether this evolved version of the business is actually better.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:41) Why Shawn’s original Alphabet thesis needed a revisit

(00:06:55) How the AI-kills-search narrative played out in reality

(00:30:28) Why Google Cloud’s margins surprised skeptical investors

(00:43:48) How Waymo went from afterthought to major asset

(00:49:44) How Alphabet’s AI spending flows through its earnings

(01:03:12) What Berkshire Hathaway’s growing stake signals about the company

(01:03:47) Why Alphabet paused buybacks and started raising equity

(01:07:15) Which unresolved questions will define Alphabet’s next few years

(01:13:13) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add to their Alphabet in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

 Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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 Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Our original podcast deep-dive on Alphabet.

 Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: SpaceX, Microsoft, Meta.

 Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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TIVP098 (Video): Alphabet (GOOGL): The Megacap That Still Might Be Underrated w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Copart (NASDAQ: CPRT), the online salvage auction giant that turns totaled cars into a global marketplace, connecting insurers with more than a million buyers across 190 countries. Copart owns over 250 salvage yards outright — land that's increasingly difficult to permit today — and compounded earnings per share at over 20% a year for a decade. But the stock is down more than 40% from its highs, U.S. insurance volumes have fallen for four straight quarters, and its main competitor, IAA, has now outgrown Copart for six straight quarters.

Daniel and Shawn dig into what actually broke. Is the volume decline cyclical, driven by Americans dropping insurance coverage after premiums rose ~50% in three years — or structural, as Progressive becomes America's largest auto insurer while sending three-quarters of its salvage to IAA? They also cover why founder-era CEO Jay Adair returned after four years away, why Copart just bought back $1.6 billion of its own stock after five years of nothing, and what a rumored acquisition of CCC Intelligent Solutions would mean for a company that has never carried meaningful debt. In the end, Daniel updates his valuation model and decides whether Copart earns its way back into The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:46) What changed since our last episode on Copart

(00:12:42) How Copart’s moat works

(00:17:55) Whether Copart’s moat still exists

(00:20:30) Whether competition actually gained market share

(00:39:57) What new CEO Jay Adair wants to change

(00:58:23) How much Copart stock is actually worth

(01:05:32) Whether CPRT will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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 Our original deep-dive on Copart.

 Value Investor Club Long Thesis.

 Value Investor Club Short Thesis.

 Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.

 Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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TIVP097 (Video): Copart Stock (CPRT): Is Copart now a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Uber (NYSE: UBER), one of the largest holdings in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio, fifteen months after they first pitched it. In that time, Uber’s operating profits have roughly doubled, free cash flow has climbed to about $10 billion a year, gross bookings are compounding around 20% annually, and the board authorized a new $20 billion buyback. And yet the stock is flat, with its multiple of operating profits cut from 55 times down to roughly 22 times.

Shawn and Daniel discuss why the market is pricing Uber as though autonomy ends the story — Waymo raising $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation, roughly the same market cap as all of Uber, and formally ending its exclusive partnerships in Austin and Atlanta. They dig into the more than 20 AV partners Uber has lined up in response, from Nuro and Lucid to Rivian, NVIDIA, Zoox, WeRide, Baidu, and Pony.ai, plus Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero, the margin inflection driven by advertising, insurance normalization, and Uber One — and whether the market is writing down the entire company for a risk that touches maybe a tenth of its profits.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:44) Why Uber’s stock is flat while its operating profits have doubled

(00:03:53) How Uber’s operating margins swung 55 percentage points in under six years

(00:05:12) Why advertising, Uber One, and insurance reform keep pushing margins higher

(00:24:09) What Waymo ending its exclusive deals in Austin and Atlanta really means

(00:36:22) How much of Uber’s profits are genuinely exposed to robotaxis

(00:41:28) Why Uber is racing to sign more than 20 autonomous vehicle partners

(00:49:07) What Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero actually buys it

(00:57:14) Why Shawn and Daniel are happy to keep owning Uber

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

 Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Our original podcast deep-dive on Uber.

 Lewistown Capital’s Ride or Die: The Self-Driving S-Curve.

 Uber’s acquisition offer for Delivery Hero.

 Uber & Rivian’s robotaxi partnership for up to 50,000 vehicles

 NVIDIA’s plan to launch robotaxis on Uber across 28 cities.

 Uber’s investor relations site.

 Waymo’s $16 billion funding round.

 Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: 
Grab Holdings, Lyft, DoorDash.

 Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

 Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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TIVP096 (Video): Uber (UBER): The Autonomy Referendum: Is Mr. Market Completely Wrong? w/ Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley break down AppLovin, the mobile advertising platform that went from a failed app recommendation tool to one of the most profitable businesses in ad tech. They walk through how the company makes money on both sides of the ad exchange, why its data advantage has been so hard for competitors to copy, and what caused the market to turn on the stock so violently after a relatively strong quarter. Along the way, they dig into the founder's track record, the buyback program that made early shareholders rich, and whether the growth story still has room to run.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:01:46) How a failed app became a global advertising platform

(00:10:35) How AppLovin makes money from advertisers and publishers

(00:15:36) Why real-time auctions beat the old waterfall method

(00:28:36) What actually protects AppLovin from Google and Meta

(00:33:17) Why AppLovin bought mobile game studios, then sold them

(00:53:11) How buybacks created enormous value

(01:04:13) Details on the executive comp structure

(01:09:31) What we think triggered the post-earnings collapse

(01:14:55) Where the next leg of growth could come from

(01:24:39) Valuation discussion of AppLovin

(01:26:07) Intrinsic Value of AppLovin

(01:26:31) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add AppLovin to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

 Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠
Alphabet, Meta, Reddit, Trade Desk, Uber.

 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Kyle on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Follow Shawn on ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠.

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TIVP095 (Video): Applovin (APP): The 30-Bagger Down More Than Half w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Comfort Systems USA, a business Shawn originally passed on at $320 that has since appreciated fivefold due to explosive data center spending. The company shattered original projections, with accelerating organic growth, expanding margins, and exceptional capital efficiency. Despite acknowledging the business quality, the hosts discussed whether the original decision reflected a flawed investment process or was the natural outcome of applying a strict investment framework.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:07:16) How AI data center spending transformed a boring contractor into a multi-bagger
(00:22:43) How to use the backlog to be directionally correct about the company’s future
(00:27:59) About the tailwinds behind their organic growth
(00:41:13) Why surety bonding capacity creates a widening competitive advantage
(00:49:39) About how the return on incremental invested capital has improved
(01:02:20) About their exceptional incentive plan
(01:05:06) Why are we uncertain about Comfort’s high growth metrics 5-10 years from now
(01:09:11) Valuation discussion of Comfort Systems
(01:12:21) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add Comfort Systems to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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Constellation Software⁠, ⁠Dell⁠, ⁠Alphabet⁠, ⁠Constellation Software Spinoffs⁠.

 Follow Kyle on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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TIVP094 (Video): Comfort Systems (FIX): The Five-Bagger We Passed OnComfort Systems w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a deep dive into Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), the data and AI platform behind everything from battlefield targeting systems to Airbus’s A350 production line, with customers including the U.S. Army, the NHS, Ferrari, and Airbus. Palantir is growing revenue at over 90%, with net dollar retention at 157% and adjusted operating margins above 60% — a Rule of 40 score of 155%, roughly double what the best software companies in the world achieve. It also trades at around 60 times sales, which is why The Economist called it possibly the most overvalued firm of all time.

Daniel and Shawn discuss whether the ontology layer is a sustainable moat now that Microsoft and Google have launched competing products, what Alex Karp and Peter Thiel’s politics mean for a company selling to Western governments, and why twenty years of losses turned into the fastest-accelerating software business on the market. In the end, Daniel values the business and decides whether PLTR deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:02:29) How Palantir’s Ontology actually works 

(00:16:26) How AI turned around Palantir’s business

(00:20:59) Why Palantir has the best margins in the industry

(00:34:22) Why no one seems to be able to copy Palantir’s Ontology

(00:38:01) How Palantir grows its customer base

(01:07:36) Palantir's valuation discussion

(01:11:37) How much Palantir stock is actually worth

(01:12:52) Whether PLTR will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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 Satish Terala’s ⁠AI Masterclass⁠.

 Future Investing’s ⁠Interview with a Palantir FDE.⁠

 Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠Constellation Software⁠, ⁠Dell⁠, ⁠Alphabet⁠, ⁠Constellation Software Spinoffs⁠.

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TIVP093 (Video): Palantir Stock (PLTR): Palantir is Cheaper than I Thought! w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley analyze Domino's Pizza, the world’s biggest pizza franchisor built on a royalty-driven, asset-light business model. They walk through Domino's shift toward franchising and away from Company-owned stores, and what that means for the company's future revenue mix and cash generation. Along the way, they dig into whether Domino's royalty engine can keep running at the pace investors have come to expect.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:01:09) Reviewing the Domino's royalty engine thesis
(00:13:30) Why Domino's has moved away from Company-owned stores
(00:26:05) The role of royalties versus supply chain revenue in Domino's earnings
(00:33:21) How Domino's utilizes a fortressing strategy and its effect on store growth
(00:41:16) The competitive landscape in delivery, carryout, and aggregator platforms
(00:43:27) How the franchise model keeps Domino's asset-light and cash-generative
(00:48:47) Domino's capital allocation and approach to share buybacks
(00:56:47) International franchising and Domino's global store growth
(00:58:30) Risks facing Domino's from labor costs, competition, and changing consumer habits
(01:06:29) Valuation discussion of Domino's
(01:07:40) Intrinsic value of Domino's
(01:09:00) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add Domino's to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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 Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠⁠.

 Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

 Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠
Uber⁠, ⁠Grab⁠, ⁠Coupang⁠.

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TIVP092 (Video): Domino's Pizza (DPZ): Is the Royalty Engine Still Running? w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley

After looking at companies that tanked in recent months in the last episode, Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley now take a look at the best-performing stocks of the pitches of the last two years. Google, Amazon, and Reddit are companies that generated great returns for the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, but there were also companies on the watchlist that turned into multibaggers in the past year.

Daniel and Shawn discuss the patterns of the stocks that gained most in value, what one can learn from that, and how they think about selling and holding positions that went up past their fair value estimate.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:35) About Google’s stock rise and valuation
(00:14:09) How the massive capex changes the Mag7
(00:26:41) Why Amazon might be more attractive than Google
(00:38:54) Why Daniel and Shawn decided to sell some Reddit
(00:56:54) Why Remitly wasn’t added to the Portfolio
(01:05:35) How TSMC, Dell, and Comfort Systems became multibaggers
(01:18:02) What the future holds for the AI trade

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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TIVP091 (Video): Google, Reddit, Amazon – Are Our Biggest Winners Still a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a trip down memory lane and look back at the pitches of the last year and a half – especially the ones that didn’t work out as hoped. Many companies that were seen as best-in-class businesses not too long ago experienced massive drawdowns in the last year. Some of them were covered on this show, and others even made it into the portfolio. 

Daniel and Shawn discuss the patterns of the stocks that lost most in value, what one can learn from that, and how the market shift towards AI changed how they invest. The companies discussed today are Adobe, Lululemon, PayPal, Trade Desk, and CoStar.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:03:36) Why Lululemon had to leave the portfolio
(00:21:59) What made us sell PayPal
(00:34:01) About Adobe’s downfall and future outlook
(00:52:55) Why Trade Desk never made it into the portfolio
(01:00:56) Whether Daniel’s and Shawn’s conviction in CoStar is broken
(01:10:47) What Daniel and Shawn learned from the companies above

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

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TIVP090 (Video): Adobe, Lululemon, PayPal – Are our Biggest Losers a Buy Now? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

The Intrinsic Value Podcast by The Investor’s Podcast Network is hosted by Shawn O’Malley.
This podcast is inspired by 10 years of interviews with the world’s best investors here at The Investor’s Podcast Network. Shawn applies those lessons while breaking down and valuing a different business every week.
From outlining how companies make money to understanding their competitive advantages, competitors, growth opportunities, and, of course, estimating their intrinsic value, this podcast will help you think smarter about business and investing.
Tune in each week and start growing your knowledge and wealth today!
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(Trailer) The Intrinsic Value Podcast

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