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Know Your Risk Radio

Do you know how much risk your retirement portfolio is actually exposed to? Whether it’s preservation of capital or an aggressive growth strategy, every investor needs a clearly defined RISK PROFILE. Host Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer at Bulwark Capital Management, will cover all types of investment vehicles and you’ll learn what investing looks like when portfolios aren’t influenced by the corporate objectives of the big banks and Wall Street brokerage houses. Subscribe to the podcast here. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Any references to performance of securities are thought to be materially accurate and actual performance may differ. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Investment advice cannot be given without a client service agreement. Bulwark Capital Management is an Investment Adviser Representative of Trek Financial, LLC., an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/disclosures/

Know Your Risk Podcast

August 7, 2026 – AI is generating enormous amounts of revenue—but Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue investors may be confusing the money being made building AI with the money ultimately generated using it. They revisit the AI bull case, the extraordinary capital spending behind the buildout, and why the companies selling the picks and shovels may be telling a very different story from the businesses expected to eventually justify the investment. They also break down the latest jobs report, inflation risks, oil-market tightness, developments around Iran, and what the market may be overlooking heading into the second half of the year.

AI Is Making Money...Just Not Where You Think

August 6, 2026 – Has the AI debate reached a turning point? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor revisit one of their biggest investing themes after hearing a compelling counterargument from venture capitalist Gavin Baker. They discuss why the AI buildout may be more durable than skeptics expected, whether capital spending is actually creating long-term value, rising Treasury yields, oil's rebound, and why changing your mind when the facts change is a strength—not a weakness.

The AI Bear Case Just Got Much Harder

August 5, 2026 – One of the most dangerous investing mistakes isn't believing someone else—it's believing yourself too much. Flying solo, Zach Abraham discusses why the best investors constantly challenge their own assumptions, revisits the AI investment debate with a surprising counterargument, explains why chip companies may deserve a second look, and why separating conviction from confirmation bias is critical in today's market. He also covers oil, geopolitics, and why great investing often starts by asking, "What if I'm wrong?"

The Biggest Investing Mistake Might Be Your Own Conviction

August 4, 2026 – Stocks pushed to fresh highs as investors embraced optimism around the Middle East, falling oil prices, and lower Treasury yields. But has anything fundamentally changed? Chase Taylor discusses why markets may be reacting more to headlines than reality, whether the recent drop in oil prices is justified, how negotiations with Iran could actually unfold, and why Japan's currency intervention may not solve its underlying problems. They also break down market leadership, Treasury yields, Bitcoin as a liquidity indicator, and why investors should separate short-term narratives from long-term fundamentals.

The Headlines Changed. Reality Didn't.

August 3, 2026 – Markets continue climbing even as long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, geopolitical risks persist, and investors pour even more money into the biggest AI winners. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why the latest hyperscaler rally may be one of the strangest market moves they've ever seen, how market structure is overwhelming traditional price discovery, whether AI spending is creating a dangerous feedback loop, and why political incentives continue to complicate both monetary policy and global energy markets. They also cover negotiations with Iran, oil prices, the Fed's increasingly difficult position, and why understanding incentives matters more than chasing headlines.

This Might Be the Dumbest Market We've Ever Seen

July 31, 2026 – Amazon's earnings, Apple's selloff, soaring Treasury yields, and AI spending continue to send conflicting signals across the market. So what's actually driving prices? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why hyperscaler valuations continue to climb despite rising rates, whether Microsoft's accounting changes reveal a deeper issue with AI economics, why Amazon's capital spending could create opportunities elsewhere, and what today's market structure says about price discovery. They also break down developments in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Fed's growing challenge as long-term yields rise, and why political incentives continue to shape economic decisions.

The AI Bubble Has a Bigger Problem Than Valuations

July 30, 2026 – Microsoft surged after earnings, Amazon rallied, Meta stumbled, and the market celebrated another wave of AI optimism. But beneath the headlines is a much bigger question. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine what Microsoft's results actually mean, why extending data center depreciation schedules caught their attention, whether Wall Street is properly valuing AI infrastructure, and why long-term Treasury yields may still matter more than the latest earnings beat. They also discuss Japan's currency intervention, bond market signals, commodities, and why markets often look strongest just as investors stop asking the hard questions.

Microsoft Just Changed the AI Math

July 29, 2026 – Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the latest Federal Reserve meeting, why rising long-term Treasury yields may be doing the Fed's job for them, and what that means for investors. They discuss the implications of 5%+ long bonds, market liquidity, AI infrastructure spending, Apple's valuation, Japan, and why today's market may be entering a very different phase than investors have grown accustomed to.

The Bond Market Just Took Control

July 28, 2026 – Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine a different way to understand the AI boom: not simply as a technology cycle, but as a debt-financed real estate and infrastructure buildout. They discuss data centers, construction lags, rapidly depreciating assets, hyperscaler debt, and what could happen if demand growth slows after the supply has already been built. They also cover falling oil and metals prices, tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, Apple’s valuation, opportunities in Japan, and the continued unwind across memory and semiconductor stocks.

What If AI Is Really a Real Estate Cycle?

July 27, 2026 – Chase Taylor flies solo to break down a dramatic reversal in oil prices following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. He explains why the market sold off despite major infrastructure damage, what to watch next, and why the duration of supply disruptions matters far more than the initial headlines. Chase also covers Nvidia, Chinese AI, software, semiconductors, and the key market themes investors should be watching this week.

Daily Dots - March 10, 2025

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