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Goldman Sachs

In each episode of "Exchanges," people from the firm share their insights on developments shaping industries, markets and the global economy.

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Markets may be pricing in more tightening by the Federal Reserve than is warranted due to a divergence playing out in the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan. In the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast, Kaplan notes that while artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and defense spending are continuing to boom, interest-rate sensitive parts of the economy, such as housing and autos, are already straining under higher rates. Taken together, these crosscurrents are creating a more muted response from the Fed. 

Key takeaways:

 The Fed may still hike, but not much: Kaplan expects the Fed to raise rates one more time to bring rates to roughly 4%–4.25%, then pause to reassess. The markets, however, are pricing in more hikes, which Kaplans attributes to a risk premium from investors that may be related to uncertainties over oil prices and how Fed Chairman Warsh would adjust policy in reaction to economic data. 

 The neutral rate still matters: Kaplan says this policy rate, while not the “be all,” is still relevant. Kaplan thinks another rate hike would probably push Fed policy above the neutral rate and be “slightly restrictive” for the economy.

 A shock without a playbook: Kaplan describes an economy with a "low fire, low hire" labor market where tariffs, immigration-driven labor constraints, and an oil shock are coinciding with a historic capex boom—a supply-side setup with no textbook precedent. That shock is forcing the Fed to focus on containing the "bleed" of inflation into other goods, he says. 

Date of recording: September 22, 2026

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action or be used as a basis for any other investment decision, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. Any forward-looking statements, case studies, computations or examples set forth herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any sponsorship, affiliation, endorsement, ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. 

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. 

© 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. 
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Why Markets May Be Pricing in Too Many Fed Rate Hikes

Rich Friedman, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says there are still plenty of investment opportunities in private equity, even as private markets have grown far larger than he would have imagined a few decades ago. In this conversation with Alison Mass, chairman of Investment Banking in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, on Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors, he explains why he expects the payoff in artificial intelligence to arrive later than the market assumes, and how the discipline he used to build the firm's merchant banking business over 45 years shapes where he is investing now. 

 This episode was recorded on July 28, 2026. 

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action or be used as a basis for any other investment decision, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. Any forward-looking statements, case studies, computations or examples set forth herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any sponsorship, affiliation, endorsement, ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. 

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. 

© 2026 Goldman Sachs. 

All rights reserved. 
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Rich Friedman on the Rise of Private Markets and AI Investing

Government bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs across the US, UK, Germany, and Japan. George Cole, head of European Rates Strategy for Goldman Sachs Research, says there is a range of factors behind the bond sell-off—from swelling fiscal deficits and borrowing tied to investment in artificial intelligence (AI) to resilient economic growth and an energy-price shock. In this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, he also explains what could bring yields back down. 

Key takeaways:

 Low volatility signals a fundamental move: While global yields have been climbing, bond market volatility has been notably low. Cole says this makes it harder to dismiss the sell-off as technical noise and points instead to fundamentally driven factors. 

 Everyone is borrowing from the same pool of savings: Governments raising money for deficits and defense spending are now competing with companies borrowing heavily to fund AI buildouts, Cole says. With more borrowers chasing the same pool of global savings, rates get pushed up almost mechanically, regardless of what any single government does.

 Bonds could become a better hedge: Over the next few years, Cole says five-year bond yields could have more room to decline, making those securities a better hedge for portfolios. 

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. 

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. ⁠ 

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html 

© 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. 
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Why Global Bond Yields Are Surging

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has steered the central bank into an era of less transparency. Former Fed governors Donald Kohn and Stephen Miran, as well as Goldman Sachs Chief Economist and Head of Goldman Sachs Research Jan Hatzius, discuss on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast the merits of Fed communication and how it affects financial markets. The episode is based on the latest Top of Mind report. 

Key takeaways: 

 Kohn says there is a “golden mean” in which financial markets have some information from the Fed, such as a narrative that helps investors process incoming data, without central bank officials providing too much specific information about their policy plans.

 Reducing forward guidance would improve the signal that financial markets provide, and the additional volatility is worth the trade-off, Miran says. He argues that too much guidance from Fed officials can increase volatility in the longer run.

 Hatzius says markets will always price what they think the Fed will do—not what they think the Fed should do—even if the central bank provides less information about how it adjusts policy in reaction to economic data. 

This episode was recorded in August 2026. 

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any
liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and
identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. 

 A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. 

 Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. 
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How Will Less Fed Transparency Affect Markets and the Economy?

Dipan Patel, co-CEO of Permira, joins Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors to discuss how Permira’s sector-specialized investment approach and private partnership structure differs from firms which have grown through platform scale and breadth. He also discusses Permira’s strategy for transforming portfolio companies and what has made those assets attractive to strategic buyers, and he shares how Permira assesses technology risk in its portfolio.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. 

© 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.
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Dipan Patel on Permira’s ‘Artisanal’ Approach to Private Equity

Global data center power demand could rise 170% by 2030 from 2025 levels according to Goldman Sachs Research’s Brian Singer and Carly Davenport. They joined hosts Allison Nathan and George Lee on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast to discuss how data centers will source that power, the key bottlenecks, and the impact of growing pushback from some local communities. 

Key takeaways: 

 The rise in power demand from AI more broadly is forecast to be the equivalent of adding another Japan to the world’s power consumption by 2030 compared to the start of 2024. 

 Goldman Sachs Research sees seven key binding constraints for data center power today including price, policy, and people. Delays for connecting data centers to regional US power grids are as long as seven years. 

 The Mid-Atlantic region should remain the largest US data center power market until at least 2030, but the Midwest is set to overtake Texas for second place. 

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.
Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

© 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

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The Outlook for Data Center Power Demand as AI Token Use Grows

Key takeaways:

 The "demo versus product" gap: An AI demo is judged on its best day, but an institutional-grade product is judged on its worst. Building reliable financial tools requires rigorous, auditable grounding frameworks to avoid hallucinations and ensure every output can be traced back to a verified source.

 Don't bet against the model: Developers should avoid wasting resources on complex workarounds for temporary constraints on models that are evolving rapidly. Instead, they should focus on elements that models cannot natively learn: details specific to the firm, such as proprietary data or how data sets are connected to each other.

 Tackling legacy constraints: Successful innovation lies in redesigning workflows from first principles rather than simply automating legacy bottlenecks to do the same tasks faster.

In this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Chris Churchman, head of Marquee, Goldman Sachs’ digital platform for institutional and corporate clients, talks about building effective artificial intelligence (AI) products for institutional investors.

Churchman, who is also co-chair of the Global Banking & Markets AI Working Group, describes an ongoing shift from a world where users must learn software to one where software learns the user. He tells hosts Allison Nathan of Goldman Sachs Research and George Lee, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, about the challenges of grounding generative AI in hard facts, and emphasizes the need to design systems that enhance human reasoning rather than outsourcing critical thinking to machines.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action or be used as a basis for any other investment decision, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. Any forward-looking statements, case studies, computations or examples set forth herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any sponsorship, affiliation, endorsement, ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

 

Disclosures applicable to information relating to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, if any, mentioned herein, are available: https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclaimer/salesandtrading 

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

 

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.

 

Date of Recording August 11, 2026

© 2026 Goldman Sachs.

All rights reserved.

 

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Building AI Systems for Capital Markets

Jean Hynes, CEO of Wellington Management, has more than 35 years of experience at the firm. But she spends most of her time looking ahead, trying to envision what the world might look like in a decade and building portfolios around nascent opportunities. In an interview with Goldman Sachs’ Alison Mass on the Great Investors podcast, Hynes discusses innovation in the biopharma sector, how Wellington is using AI, and her path to the C-Suite. 

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action or be used as a basis for any other investment decision, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. Any forward-looking statements, case studies, computations or examples set forth herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any sponsorship, affiliation, endorsement, ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

 

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.

 

Date of Recording: July 20, 2026

© 2026 Goldman Sachs.

All rights reserved.

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Wellington’s Jean Hynes on the Art of Investing and Finding New Markets

The US and Japan coordinated on the biggest currency market intervention in 15 years, helping to stabilize a weakening yen. Karen Fishman, senior FX strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, and Praneet Shah, global head of FX options trading in Global Banking & Markets, discuss why the US joined the action, why the yen still appears undervalued, and whether another intervention might follow.

Key takeaways: 

 The scale of Japan’s intervention was historic, but the US role was symbolic. Japan's operation, estimated to be worth up to $85 billion over July 30 and July 31, was its largest two-day intervention on record outside of October 2011. The US leg was much smaller, but pushed the yen further by signaling the US’ willingness to help. 

 Washington's involvement was likely aimed at limiting volatility in US markets. The timing of US support coincided with some volatility in US interest rates, in addition to other factors. 

 Intervention may buy time, but it is a short-term measure. In the longer term, policy measures convincing Japanese investors to shift back towards Japanese assets could help reverse the yen's low valuation. 

This episode was recorded on August 10, 2026.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at ⁠http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html⁠

Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party.
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What the US-Japan Currency Intervention Means for the Yen, Rates, and the Dollar

Goldman Sachs President John Waldron speaks with Steven Tananbaum, CIO of GoldenTree Asset Management, about how GoldenTree became a credit-focused asset manager overseeing $70 billion. They discuss how credit markets have evolved during Tananbaum’s career, his framework for analyzing investments, and how financing for artificial intelligence is affecting credit markets. 

This episode was recorded on July 23, 2026.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at ⁠http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html⁠

Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party.

Copyright 2026. All rights reserved.
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Steven Tananbaum: The Evolution of Credit Investing and AI Opportunities

The global oil market is experiencing a massive demand shock, with demand for transportation fuels sitting in the crosshairs of the coronavirus crisis. At the same time, major oil producers have engaged in a war for oil market share, resulting in a sizable supply shock. The impact of these simultaneous shocks on oil prices, OPEC+, the oil industry, and credit and financial markets more broadly are Top of Mind.

In this episode, Allison Nathan interviews three energy experts, Pulitzer Prize-winning author, Daniel Yergin, PIRA Energy Group Founder, Gary Ross, and our own head of Global Commodities Research, Jeff Currie. They discuss the enormity of the current oil shock, how we got here, and what’s in store—namely, sharply lower, and even negative, crude oil prices as oil infrastructure is overwhelmed by the supply surge. But they also argue that the sharper the price decline, the sharper the eventual rebound as oil production is shut in. 
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Oil’s Seismic Shock

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