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Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 
Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Forward Guidance

Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear.

This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.

We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?

06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%?

11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap

18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche)

20:05 Will The Fed Hike?

26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough?

30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking?

33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running?

37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking?

43:22 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup

The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural?

This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction.

We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken?

10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance

12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again?

18:30 Sizing Bitcoin And Gold

23:59 Why Gold Miners Look Attractive

27:56 The Opportunity In Silver

29:53 Will Central Banks Buy Bitcoin?

32:24 Who Buys $12T Of Treasuries?

36:28 Can AI Solve The Debt Problem?

41:01 Are Bond Investors The Patsy?

FOLLOW GUESTS

› Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan

› Bitwise – https://x.com/Bitwise

› Bob/Proficio – https://proficiocap.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber

The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields.

This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention.

We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent

05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent?

08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed

13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks?

16:05 Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement

19:52 Ads (TOKEN2049, DAS Asia, Avalanche Summit)

21:28 Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma

27:20 America’s Term-Premium Problem

30:43 Anthropic And The AI Bubble

37:48 AI Repeats Crypto’s 2021 Playbook

42:48 Will The Government Bail Out AI?

47:03 The Debasement Endgame

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zmm4uy9nhYi3TrTaq20oyFD61Uq8anYg/view?usp=sharing 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup

Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade.

This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.

We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game

12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist?

19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go?

24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets?

29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish?

33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection?

37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next?

41:25 Where Should Investors Hide?

46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom?

51:58 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup

Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets.

Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.

We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime

06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder

14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market

20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope

29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing?

37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold

43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible

FOLLOW DARIUS

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42

› 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale

Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next.

This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression.

We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

00:58 Tyler's Farewell

04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime

06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility

15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle?

20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade

24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks?

28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot

33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft

40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms?

44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat

46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase

50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows

55:34 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup

Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention.

This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns.

We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy! 

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 The Awesome Portfolio

04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk

11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift

14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data

17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting

20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight

22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun

27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold

FOLLOW JARED

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/dailydirtnap

› Pre-Order The Awesome Portfolio –https://a.co/d/01yslEpJ 

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian

AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates.

This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection.

We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation

04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom

07:51 Price Drives The Narrative

12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh?

21:08 Why The Long End Matters

25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem

29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole?

33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection

38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics

45:46 August Slowdown Risks

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup

AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand.

Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute.

We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging

06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows

14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency

18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value?

22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand

27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening

32:03 The Memory Bottleneck

37:07 AI’s Next Phase

FOLLOW STEVE

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

› Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou

The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear.

This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade.

We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels

06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets

12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits?

16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade

19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze

23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure

29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk?

35:29 Can Value Finally Win?

40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk

48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:36) The High-Yield Bond Market
(10:08) VanEck Ad
(10:48) Putting Money To Work When Credit Is Priced Optimistically
(19:27) The Bank Loan Market (i.e. Leveraged Loans)
(25:04) How Are Loan Borrowers Handling 500 Basis Points Of Increased Debt Costs?
(28:59) Permissionless Ad
(29:58) The Rise of Private Credit: Are We In The Golden Age?
(41:34) Is Private Credit An Untested Asset Class In A Potential Recession?
(46:53) What Is The Private Credit Money Used For?
(52:57) Why Do Active Managers Manage To Outperform The Index In Credit, When In Equities So Many Underperform?
(58:51) Loan Refinancings Are Occurring At A Record Pace
(01:03:02) Structured Credit And Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities)
(01:04:40) Specialty Retail and Emerging Markets
(01:07:02) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Why Credit Conditions Have Actually Eased Over Past Year | Oaktree’s Wayne Dahl on High-Yield Bonds, Leveraged Loans, Private Credit, and the Recession Yet To Arrive

Why Credit Conditions Have Actually Eased Over Past Year | Oaktree’s Wayne Dahl on High-Yield Bonds, Leveraged Loans, Private Credit, and the Recession Yet To Arrive

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