Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman

In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 Implied Forward Rates 03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession 07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance 11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields 13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity 18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread 23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate 26:11 The Fed's Master Plan 29:43 Permissionless Ad 30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation? 35:19 Labor Market & Immigration 38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced? 40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt 42:03 Market Opportunities 44:33 Equities & Rates 47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work

__ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets