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Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
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Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Forward Guidance

In this episode, Harris (Kuppy) Kupperman joins Tyler to discuss why markets may look strong, but beneath the surface they’re being run for asset holders, not workers. We explore how policy choices, market structure, and AI hype are driving asset-driven feudalism. Enjoy!

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Follow Kuppy: https://x.com/kuppyskorner 

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Kuppy’s Feudalism Piece: https://pracap.com/feudalism/ 

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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:35) Economic Feudalism

(06:51) Why Is Wage Growth Bad?

(09:14) Malice Or Negligence?

(12:28) Grayscale Ad

(13:06) Global Feudalism

(18:27) How Does This Unwind?

(22:07) No Uses For Productive Capital

(25:46) Positioning For Political Revolution

(31:05) Grayscale Ad

(31:52) Where Do You Invest?

(38:27) Biggest Story In Macro

(41:50) The Problems With US Allocators

(48:50) Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market

(53:50) AI Boom Winners & Losers

(57:27) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Why Today’s Economy Serves Assets, Not Workers | Harris Kupperman

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar’s models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy!

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Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:29) Risk-Off Pivot

(07:28) Unpacking System Triggers

(12:26) Grayscale Ad

(13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses

(17:13) Inflation Expectations

(23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy

(25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs

(32:17) Grayscale Ad

(33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity

(40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions

(47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic

(50:49) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime | Market Radar

This week, we discuss a pivotal FOMC day, the Fed’s new liquidity injections, shifting market leadership, and why inflation, credit, and social pressures are all converging into a “run-it-hot” regime. We also weigh the implications for Main Street, metals, Bitcoin, and 2026 positioning. Enjoy!

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JCTPNIa3J3RutQTuPU37_vfPqIUpcKZ3/view?usp=sharing 

—

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:02) FOMC Takeaways

(07:29) Small Cap Rotation Underway?

(09:45) Psychology Of Inflation

(11:39) The Fed’s Economic Projections

(14:50) Grayscale Ad

(15:28) China’s Trade Performance

(17:45) Mag7 Ceiling Reached?

(18:22) Yields Diverging & Fiscal Stimulus

(22:12) CPI Volatility, K-Economy & Messy Politics

(27:36) Grayscale Ad

(28:24) “Run It Hot” Vs The Dollar

(30:47) Short Mag7, Long Main Street?

(33:08) Credit Markets & Correlations

(36:08) Are We Getting A Santa Rally?

(40:27) Consequences of Wealth Disparity

(46:58) We’re In The Financial Repression Endgame

(50:24) Crypto’s Disappointment

(54:03) Hope For The The Youth

(57:49) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Fed Embraces "Run It Hot" For Powell's Final Months | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Founder & CIO of IceCap Asset Management and host of The Loonie Hour podcast Keith Dicker breaks down why global markets now depend on constant stimulus, why Canada looks fragile as the U.S. strengthens, and how fiscal expansion and bond-market stress could shape the future of macro. Enjoy!

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Follow Keith: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:23) Everything Revolves Around U.S. Macro

(06:17) Repeat of Powell Repo Pivot?

(13:15) Grayscale Ad

(13:55) Fed QE: Past vs Present

(18:30) Did We Bypass Recession?

(23:21) Canada’s Comeback & Global Markets

(26:30) Unpacking Canada’s Bullish MOU

(29:37) Grayscale Ad

(30:23) Fixed Income vs Growing Debt Burden

(38:21) Precious Metals & Commodities

(40:44) Hedging Tail Risks

(43:09) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Global Economy Runs on Perpetual Stimulus | Keith Dicker

This week, we discuss why the economy feels strong on paper but fragile underneath, from debt-fueled spending and AI-driven growth to rising concentration and growing policy distortions. We also explore where the pressure is really building, the metals trade, and what could break next as 2026 approaches. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BhzyBXj0Qt7LhUlDrb1MYor_iLLP-LQP/view?usp=sharing 

—

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:21) Consumer Spending & K-Economy

(09:50) Labor, Small Businesses & the Macro Endgame

(16:01) Grayscale Ad

(16:39) Market Concentration & CapEx Cycle

(23:47) AI Cycle Stage & Race with China

(27:44) The Metals Trade

(32:14) Grayscale Ad

(33:01) Canada’s Big Pivot

(37:41) New Fed Chair & Rates

(44:10) Vol Dynamics & What to Own

(50:33) Centralization & The Race to Zero

(55:00) 2026 Fed Games

(57:59) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI & Central Planning Are Propping Up the Economy | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro digs into why the economy feels strong on the surface but uneasy beneath it, the AI investment boom propping up profits, and why the bond market can’t find its footing. We also explore why traditional recession playbooks are breaking down, the transmission of liquidity and monetary into markets, and what actually matters if you’re trying to find an edge in trading macro. Enjoy!

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Follow Aahan: https://x.com/AahanPrometheus 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) The Real State of the Economy

(06:08) Consumption & Real vs Nominal Growth

(16:51) Grayscale Ad

(17:29) AI CapEx's Economic Impact

(26:59) Grayscale Ad

(27:47) Fiscal & Monetary Policy Transmission

(34:21) Understanding & Trading Liquidity

(40:25) Finding Edge in Macro Trading

(45:24) Turning Macro into Money

(52:30) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Hidden Fractures Behind America’s “Resilient” Economy | Aahan Menon

This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy! 

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing 

—

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw

(09:48) Grayscale Ad

(10:27) Market Structure & Positioning

(15:14) Debating the AI Race

(23:59) Gameplan for Next Year

(31:31) Grayscale Ad

(32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision

(38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities

(42:18) Oil & Energy Policy

(46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy

(55:17) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The AI Economy Is Leaving Labor Behind | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the usual data releases and how Bitcoin fits into this evolving world. Enjoy!

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Follow Jordi: https://x.com/jvisserlabs 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(05:15) Why Tech is Breaking Old Macro

(12:04) Grayscale Ad

(12:41) How to Think About AI Disruptions

(19:14) Transition From FCF to Debt-Funded

(25:04) .Com Comparisons & Infinite AI Demand

(29:05) The Genesis Mission

(31:10) Grayscale Ad

(31:58) The New Reality of Today’s Markets

(36:47) Deflation vs Inflation Risks

(39:58) Mike Green’s Viral Post

(41:52) Debt Doom Loop & Curing All Diseases

(45:35) Fed Buying Corporate Bonds

(47:25) Bitcoin’s Digital Moat

(54:25) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI Is Ushering in an Entirely New Economic Paradigm | Jordi Visser

This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy!

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19pmtdWgHFQaXqjjkBeuM89VtGWCLa9qo/view?usp=sharing 

—

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) NVDA Earnings & Debt-Fueled Capex

(09:46) Rising Real Rates & Fed Pivot

(12:05) Grayscale Ad

(12:45) Private Credit Warnings

(14:18) Fed in the Dark & Midterm Setup

(19:54) Trump, Bessent & the Fed

(22:20) Hawkish Balance Sheet, Dovish Rates

(27:12) Grayscale Ad

(28:00) Currency Markets & the Carry Trade

(36:48) Bitcoin Quant Corner

(48:22) Geopolitical Implications of Bitcoin and Stablecoins

(53:52) Political Reflections

(58:54) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle

(05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth

(09:43) Grayscale Ad

(10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot

(13:41) Recession Odds

(16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy

(20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7

(21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics

(25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows

(29:28) Grayscale Ad

(30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)

(35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints

(40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets

(47:21) View on U.S. Equities

(50:57) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows

Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters

Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun.

Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270

Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948

__
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__

Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession?
(08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008
(15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession
(25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China
(33:26) Permissionless Ad
(34:25) China's Trade Surplus
(38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It
(45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo
(01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Richard Koo: China’s “Balance Sheet Recession” Has Already Started | (Jack’s Final Episode)

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