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Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 
Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Forward Guidance

AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand.

Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute.

We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging

06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows

14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency

18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value?

22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand

27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening

32:03 The Memory Bottleneck

37:07 AI’s Next Phase

FOLLOW STEVE

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

› Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou

The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear.

This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade.

We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels

06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets

12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits?

16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade

19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze

23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure

29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk?

35:29 Can Value Finally Win?

40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk

48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup

Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it.

This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading.

We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:00 Trading Outside The Box

06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk

12:46 AI As A Trading Tool

19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets

25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed

33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook

41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable?

43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?

FOLLOW BRENT

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent

› Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

› Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd 

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari 

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly

Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack.

This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once.

We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack

07:14 What Triggered The Selloff?

10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking?

12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive

14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report

18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky?

24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed?

27:54 How We're Trading This

32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning?

38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech

40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto

44:17 July 4th And The World Cup

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh.

This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing.

We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:04 Bob's Macro Background

09:21 Data-Driven Macro

13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead

16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility

21:13 Why Data Matters Even More

25:35 The Two Trades In Rates

33:16 Balance Sheet Games

37:42 The Fiscal Doom Loop

43:32 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW BOB

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LHMacro

› Research – https://lighthousemacro.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari 

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan

The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve.

This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next.

We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:16 FIFA World Cup

04:24 Peak Hawkishness Fading

09:53 Oil, Gasoline, And Disinflation

12:28 Why Inflation Stays Sticky

14:22 Monetary Policy vs AI CapEx

19:43 Warsh: Balance Sheet & Rates

25:22 Hyperscalers Hit The CapEx Wall

29:38 Passive Investing Cracking?

33:37 Market Leadership Rotating

42:07 The Productive Capital Cycle?

44:24 MicroStrategy Hits Reality

50:09 Bitcoin, AI, And Power

55:26 Do Things IRL

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cLd9ck8EM77hJz9ZlnB_5VKd8ai1Sb2d/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup

A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?

This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.

We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead

08:28 Rate Volatility Returns

13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen

18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight

26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed

35:55 The Summer Market Setup

42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test

46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost

53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt

01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup

A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision.

Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve.

We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a meaningful repricing of risk assets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:22 Warsh Kills Forward Guidance

05:57 Markets Price The Warsh Fed

11:19 The New Fed Task Forces

17:10 Impact On Rate Volatility

19:12 Warsh’s Balance Sheet Fight

23:13 Rethinking Fed Data

27:46 Weighing AI Productivity

31:52 Rethinking Inflation Target

36:17 Warsh’s Hawkish Market Signal

FOLLOW JOSEPH

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/josephwang

› Website – https://fedguy.com/

› YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance 

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari 

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph Wang

In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.

Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks

Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto

Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

Blockworks Acquires Messari

Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.

This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.

We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook

08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap

12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds

17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed

21:48 Mag Loses Leadership

28:54 The AI Capex Risk

30:17 The Best Rates Trade

34:20 Policy Powers The AI War

38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?

43:52 The AI Access Divide

50:34 The Centralization Trade

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc 

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp 

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks 

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou

Lyt når som helst, hvor som helst

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