Polling vs. The 2024 Election

Polling – the very inexact science that is the lifeblood of political analysis and guesswork – is very much with us. Built upon a series of queries that asks respondents, essentially, “What do you think about X,” polling aims to make the intangible, concrete. It is the stuff from which predictions are made, the data that fuels a political marketplace aiming to artfully respond to voter’s preferences and priorities. But polling, via its siblings – “focus groups” and “messaging” – also aspires to shape voter’s preferences; to, in the best interpretation, understand and serve them with greater clarity. In the worst interpretation, messaging makes voters more malleable, more easily swayed. Frank Luntz is a political and communications strategist and pollster who has spent most of his career working for Republicans and specializes in leveraging the emotional content of language to win campaigns.

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