Crime Trends vs. Statistics – and Reality

After many years of reassuring declines, some crime rates, like homicides and violent assaults, soared nationwide during the Covid-19 pandemic. These trends weren’t geographically or politically specific: Residents in cities, suburbs, and rural areas all suffered through that shift, and it didn’t matter if they lived in a city run by a Democrat or a Republican – more murders, the data showed, plagued every urban area. On the other hand, robberies, burglaries, and larcenies dropped during the pandemic’s onset. Crime statistics are subject to spotty methodology and reporting gaps, making it hard to rely on the data with absolute certainty. Public safety isn’t a trivial topic and there’s no question that many Americans say they feel less safe on some streets than they once did – despite the fact that violent crime rates are well below where they were during the 1990s. Ames Grawert is a lawyer and expert on crime statistics at the Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU Law School.

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