The ex-ballerina betting big on prediction markets

On Meet the Founders, we meet Luana Lopes Lara, creator of Kalshi, a prediction markets startup that allows users to trade on the outcome of real-world events - from inflation and interest rates to elections and geopolitics.

Kalshi drew attention for showing Zohran Mamdani as a favourite in the NYC mayoral race, as prediction markets gain traction as political barometers. But the wider industry has also faced scrutiny: a trader on rival platform Polymarket reportedly made nearly half a million dollars betting on the capture of Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro before it was announced.

The controversy around prediction markets has placed Lopes Lara and her company at the centre of a growing regulatory and ethical debate in the US. In this episode, the Brazilian founder explains how the discipline and resilience of ballet has shaped her approach to building a business, and why she believes markets can often forecast the future better than experts.

(First broadcast/podcast on 06 February 2026)

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Presenter: Sam Fenwick Producer: Amber Mehmood Sound mix: Toby James

(Picture: Luana Lara Lopes, founder and Chief Operating Officer of Kalshi.)