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All-In Podcast

Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath
 
Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason
 
 
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
 
 
0:01 Jason intros Chamath and Episode 0 of All-In and they discuss their current self-quarantine
 

 0:55 Jason intros David Friedberg
 

 1:35 Chamath gives the inaugural (& potentially final) All-In ad read
 

 2:17 As a Warriors owner, Chamath gives his reaction to the NBA postponing & uncoordinated actions of government & private sectors
 

 4:37 Why was the US so slow to react on both an individual & governmental level? What did the OpenTable data show?
 

 9:03 David explains the actions he would take if he was president
 

 12:37 Thoughts on Trump’s private sector involvement
 

 16:58 Has the press failed in its coverage, or are they just feeding people what they want?
 

 23:52 What will the next few weeks in the US look like? Why has the virus spread severely in Italy, but not yet in India?
 

 37:20 How the COVID-19 viral coefficient compares to the early days of Facebook’s numbers
 

 40:26 Chances of Trump testing positive for the virus? What effect would that have on markets?
 

 48:53 What should we do differently next time?
 

 53:13 Will there both more deaths due to second order effects of the virus than direct deaths?
 

 1:01:06 Should there be a global stimulus package? Effect of low-volatility during recent bull run?
 

 1:11:26 Chances of a quick resolution?
 

 1:16:48 How are Jason & Chamath advising their portfolio companies? How are IPO’s of companies like Airbnb & DoorDash being effected?
 

 1:21:17 How to approach the next year in startups & VC?

E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath
 
Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason
 
 
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
0:01 Jason & Chamath intro David and check in on each other's quarantines
 

 2:26 Has the US overreacted or underreacted so far? David & Chamath give their opinions on new directives & statistics
 

 13:15 Thoughts on potential treatment options & policy changes
 

 22:25 Chamath explains the circumstances of recording a podcast while the Stock Market tanks in real-time
 

 25:03 Should the US adopt Chinese & South Korean quarantine strategies?
 

 29:53 What do the current market conditions mean for startups & VC?
 

 41:24 Chamath explains what is currently happening in the capital markets
 

 45:05 How close is the US on being able to do mass-testing?
 

 54:13 Thoughts on bailouts for companies that manipulated their earnings-per-share ratio by stock buybacks? Impact on the global economy
 

 1:03:14 Impact on luxury goods? Should there be a monthly stipend for low-income citizens?
 

 1:12:10 COVID-19 exposing holes in the US healthcare system
 

 1:17:44 Should we ban wet markets globally?
 

 1:24:12 Over/Under: when Americans will be allowed to go out to restaurants again
 

 1:28:18 When will the weekly poker game resume?

E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, Venture Capital & Public Markets with David Friedberg

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath
 
Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason
 https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
0:01 Jason & Chamath catch us up on their quarantines
 

 1:20 Chamath intros David Sacks
 

 4:40 David explains what their poker group chat has been like since COVID-19 started, and how Jason, Chamath & himself fall on the optimistic/pessimistic spectrum
 

 6:58 How have the past few months defined David's view on the world, and what is his reaction to the US government's response?
 

 12:22 Did the US health apparatus do its job? How could it improve? Why aren't masks already mandated?
 

 19:33 Culture clash between scientific experts & entrepreneurs, thoughts on Chloroquine as a treatment method
 

 27:00 Are US bureaucrats taking the intelligence of US citizens for granted? How liable is Trump?
 

 30:08 David gives his plan to reboot the economy: what now? How does the US avoid a recession/depression?
 

 36:22 Chamath & Jason assess David's plan
 

 43:21 Have the stimulus packages & SMB loans been enough? Will the trickle-down approach work?
 

 49:21 Should the US be allowing companies to declare bankruptcy? How should they decide who gets aid and who does not?
 

 52:02 Chamath explains how corporate debt works through the lens of Ford
 

 56:42 Why is the US not giving a larger % of the stimulus to average Americans? Chances of unrest if quarantine continues?
 

 1:02:17 Trump vs. Biden: who has the edge in 2020 right now?
 

 1:11:24 Was Jack Dorsey's $1B donation the strongest move of 2020 so far?

E2: Rebooting the economy, understanding corporate debt, steps to avoid a depression & more with David Sacks

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath
 
Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason
 

 https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
0:01 Jason & Chamath intro David Sacks & David Friedberg
 

 1:15 Everybody gives their quarantine update: Sacks is in Mexico while running Craft remote, Chamath got a new poker table & is excited for shelter-in-place to end, Friedberg is getting back into a rhythm
 

 8:04 Chamath & Sacks reflect on the coming return to normalcy & politicization of the virus
 

 12:41 Sacks on 3 major data-driven discoveries about the virus
 

 15:54 Friedberg on fatality rate data, overestimating the lockdown's impact on stopping the virus
 

 19:32 Getting back to work
 

 21:05 Chamath on the stock market not reflecting the economy, Sacks on what an economic recovery might look like
 

 28:00 Friedberg on potential of another NYC-level outbreak, Chamath on negative impact of left/right culture war
 

 34:05 Sacks on democratic hesitation to end lockdowns giving Trump a strategic advantage, Friedberg on Hydroxychloroquine's benefits/risks
 

 37:57 Sacks on potential resorting of the Bay Area & Silicon Valley due to remote work
 

 41:51 Chamath on benefits of working remote, why San Francisco might lose large numbers of people
 

 45:18 Tesla/Fremont situation a microcosm for politicization of the pandemic, benefits of people starting to distrust inept bureaucrats
 

 49:33 Chamath on the beginning of the modern Cold War, dealing with market conditions considering China's standing in the world, ideological issues
 

 53:46 Sacks on US/China relationship, how US can penalize China
 

 59:25 Friedberg on how US can leapfrog China in manufacturing by using modern, automated solutions

E3: Modern Cold War between US & China, economic recovery, potential mass migration out of San Francisco, pandemic politicization & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath
 
Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
0:01 Jason checks in on Chamath, Sacks & Friedberg, opening up their social circles, outdoor activities & more
 
9:31 Issues with politicizing matters of public health, deaths decreasing while new cases spike, masks, lockdowns & more
 

 20:56 Viral videos, doxxing bad behavior & cancel culture
 

 25:39 Reforming law enforcement, separating police from the military, changing police incentives
 

 36:42 Are public unions too powerful? How a lack of leadership has led us here
 

 41:49 Facebook vs. Twitter on free speech, Zuckerberg's relationship with Peter Thiel, valuing comfort over freedom of expression
 

 59:24 John Bolton's book controversy
 

 1:03:14 Movements in the COVID vaccine space
 

 1:07:38 Trump vs. Biden: Who has the upper hand?
 

 1:14:24 Who should Biden pick as VP?

E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Biden's ideal VP, Twitter vs. Facebook on free speech & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

Follow the crew:
 
https://twitter.com/chamath
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
 
https://twitter.com/friedberg
 
Follow the pod:
 
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
 
https://bio.fm/theallinpod

E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing America's efficiency

Follow the crew:
 
https://twitter.com/chamath
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
 
https://twitter.com/friedberg
 
Follow the pod:
 
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
 
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
 
Referenced in the show:
 
Brian Armstrong's Blog - Coinbase is a mission focused company
 
 https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-is-a-mission-focused-company-af882df8804
 
President Trump's medical treatment
 
https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1312126100286271488
 
Show Notes:
 
0:00 The besties reflect on Trump testing positive for COVID-19: treatment, impact on society & the election
 
9:06 What treatment is Trump receiving & is it scalable to everyone? Is this the future of disease mitigation?
 
16:55 What happens to the election if Trump is incapacitated & cannot run?
 
20:36 Debate reaction - who won, who misfired?
 
29:05 Live reaction to Trump being flown to Walter Reed hospital
 
30:43 Has the economy began to separate from political influence?
 
36:25 Reflection on the execution & reaction to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's letter
 
41:19 How Chamath would have reframed the letter, how Slack & company forums have platformed non-work discourse inside companies
 
49:30 Reflection on Jack Dorsey & Dick Costolo's reaction, what this means for Coinbase going forward
 
59:04 Predictions for 2021

E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more

Follow the crew:
 
https://twitter.com/chamath
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
 
https://twitter.com/friedberg
 
Follow the pod:
 
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
 
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
 
Sacks' blog post on Section 230:
 
https://medium.com/craft-ventures/rip-section-230-1112dfad3fac
 
Referenced in the show:
 
NY Post Hunter Biden Story
 
 https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/
 
Twitter's explanation for censoring it
 
https://twitter.com/TwitterSafety/status/1316525303930458115
 
Facebook's explanation for censoring it
 
https://twitter.com/andymstone/status/1316395902479872000
 
Updated CDC survival rates
 
 https://twitter.com/adam_creighton/status/1308652790823051264?s=21
 
Show Notes:
 
0:00 The besties catch up on the news
 
1:29 NY Post Hunter Biden story & censorship by Twitter/Facebook
 
7:27 What is section 230 & how does it play into the publisher vs. distributor debate
 
13:23 Distinguishing between publishers & distributors
 
28:30 Why Twitter & Facebook's actions with the NY Post were a huge blunder & crossed a line, should the laws be rewritten?
 
37:21 Trump beats COVID, what that means for better treatment options, dueling town halls
 
46:14 Sacks explains his stance on Prop 13 & Zuckerberg's pro-Prop 15 lobbying
 
54:34 Thoughts on Amy Coney Barrett & Biden's large lead in the polls

E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more

Follow the crew:
 
https://twitter.com/chamath
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
 
https://twitter.com/friedberg
 
Follow the pod:
 
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
 
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
 
Follow the bestie guesties:
 
https://twitter.com/bgurley
 
https://twitter.com/phil_hellmuth
 
https://twitter.com/altcap
 
https://twitter.com/jcpolls
 
Show Notes:
 
0:00 The besties & Phil Hellmuth on Trump’s early lead, live betting odds, the Latinx reversal
 
10:09 Sacks intros political expert Michael Newman on vote tally timing discrepancies, why some states skew a certain way early & more
 
20:33 Assessing the 180 in the gambling markets & equity markets towards a pro-Trump outcome
 
24:18 SurveyMonkey Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen joins the show to talk about polling updates from 2016 to 2020, understanding the race so far, electoral college & more
 
41:51 Biden losing Florida, tax policy, cultural repudiation of the elites in 2020
 
50:43 Chamath on the stupidity of the establishment, socialism, Democratic ideology for 2024 if Biden loses
 
55:40 Mid-show predictions, Jason goes off on Trump
 
1:07:58 What will happen in the time until we have a clear winner, Trump as a middle finger
 
1:17:55 Brad Gerstner joins the show to talk about stock futures, what the Democrats keep getting wrong - coastal elites losing touch with normal people, rebuking lockdowns
 
1:38:24 Reviewing the race swing state by swing state
 
1:47:28 Bill Gurley joins the show to talk about divisiveness, urban/rural rapture & more
 
1:55:53 Pete Buttigieg as the future of the Democratic Party, Chamath calls out the democratic leaders
 
2:00:43 Reconciling middle America & the coastal elites, respecting each other’s differences, understanding Prop 22
 
2:11:34 Diagnosing states that flipped from Biden to Trump, anti-business California state propositions failing, union impact on legislation
 
2:23:01 Senate races, market talk, which Democratic candidate had the best chance of beating Trump, voting for character over policy
 
2:34:32 Jason & Sacks debate Russian election interference legitimacy
 
2:41:34 Sacks unveils his Trump Derangement Score tracker, updated outcome scenarios & more
 
2:51:51 Trump declaring victory could tank markets, live reaction to Joe Biden’s election night address

E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

Follow the crew:
 
https://twitter.com/chamath
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
 
https://twitter.com/friedberg
 
Follow the pod:
 
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
 
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
 
Show Notes:
 
0:00 Besties reflect on the election night special, comparing Trump's case to Al Gore's in 2000
 
4:44 Was this election devastating for extreme-ism in politics?
 
12:13 Pfizer vaccine, withholding the vaccine from the political news cycle
 
21:54 COVID endgame scenarios
 
28:45 Public markets ripping, gridlock great for the economy
 
34:43 Analyzing exit polls, death of identity politics
 
50:57 Biggest loser of the election: Journalism
 
57:43 When will Trump concede? What will his next move be?
 
1:07:37 San Francisco's collapse - will it eventually go bankrupt?

E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more

This talk was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist
 
0:00 Nate Silver gives a presentation on how gamblers think
 
19:25 Bestie Q&A with Nate Silver: building probabilistic models, getting blamed for Trump winning in 2016, polarization reality, 2022 midterms
 
Follow Nate:
 
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538
 
Follow the besties:
 
https://twitter.com/chamath
 
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
 
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
 
https://twitter.com/friedberg
 
Follow the pod:
 
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
 
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
 
Intro Music Credit:
 
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
 
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
 
Intro Video Credit:
 
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think

#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think

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