First Friday: Jobs Are Cooling, Prices Are Climbing, and NYC is Freezing the Rent

#729: The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June. Economists expected 115,000.

Meanwhile, inflation hit a three-year high. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index - the Fed's favorite inflation gauge - jumped 4.1 percent year-over-year.

That combination creates a problem. Weak jobs usually push the Fed to cut rates. Hot inflation pushes them to hike. In this First Friday episode, we break down which way the Fed might lean at its September meeting, and why traders see an 80 percent chance rates stay frozen for now.

We also dig into Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chairman. His first official statement ran only 132 words, one of the shortest in Fed history. He cut forward guidance – the practice of making guesses about what the Fed will do next. He removed the names of dissenting voters. His statement mentioned price stability but skipped maximum employment, and we explain why that omission matters.

Central banks around the world moved in the opposite direction. The European Central Bank raised rates for the first time since 2023, responding to a 10.9 percent surge in energy prices. The Bank of Japan hiked rates to their highest level in 31 years. Australia, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines and Israel joined in. Brazil was the only country to cut rates – down to 14.25 percent.

We cover China's consumer spending decline, the first since the pandemic ended, driven by a 16.1 percent drop in auto sales and a real estate crash that drained middle-class wealth.

We end the episode with a deep dive into NYC's rent freeze – who gets the benefit, and who pays the price?

⏱️ Timestamps:

Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising segments.

(00:00) US Job Market Cooling Off

(04:52) Fed’s Stance on Interest Rates

(07:29) New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Priorities

(17:21) Global Interest Rate Hikes

(21:47) Impact of Stable US Rates & Global Trends

(26:24) Inflation Data and Predictions

(30:38) Consumer Sentiment: US vs. China

(40:00) NYC Rent Freeze: History, Policies, and Today

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