Historical Prediction – Michelle Aroney

How do people cope with uncertainty? What differentiates ways of predicting the future from scientific study of patterns – be that in epidemiology or forecasting weather? Might techniques of divination reveal as much about the past and the present as what happens next?

Michelle Aroney is a historian at Magdalen College, Oxford, and co-curator – with David Zeitlyn – of an exhibition at the Bodleian Library titled “Oracles, Omens and Answers”. As we discuss, there are fascinating links between modern sciences and older approaches – particularly astrology. Yet we also examine what distinguishes their methods, and how different cultures do similar things.

The exhibition focuses more on social function than predictive accuracy – though it does say all systems have limits. You can find out more in an accompanying book that covers two dozen disciplines – or see recent articles by the co-authors here and here. Michelle also posts on X, and the Bodleian Library shares pictures on Instagram.

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