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Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money

Actionable insights on building wealth from the top experts in money & the markets

Hosted by Adam Taggart

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Stephanie Pomboy returned this morning for her biweekly macro session on Thoughtful Money and shared how it won’t surprise her that, if the Federal Reserve does indeed cut rates in September, the market could enter a correction soon after.In fact, were this to happen, it would be extremely consistent with the past pattern of rate cut regimes.Much more often than not, it’s once the Fed starts cutting that substantial market corrections and recessions often follow.How is she positioning for this risk?Find out by watching this video.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #interestrates #inflationhedge __________________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce & distribute educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Stephanie Pomboy: The Next Fed Cut To Mark The Peak In Stocks?

The dollar has weakened considerably so far this year.Amidst the new US Adminstration's hardball trade tactics, critics claim that foreigners are ramping up their de-dollarization efforts, buying less US debt, and that the days of the dollar as the dominant world reserve currency are ending.How much truth, if any, underlies this?For answers, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Brent Johnson, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Santiago Capital, developer of the Dollar Milkshake Theory.Brent thinks the dollar has become quite oversold, so don't be surprised to see it rally.Also, he thinks it's more likely than not that a stock market correction will happen by September.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#dollar #marketcorrection #geopolitics _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Expect A Market Correction By September | Brent Johnson

Trillions in investor capital has been locked up in the "T-bill and Chill" trade for several years now.But will the Fed expected to cut rates materially over the next year, that trade is coming to an end.Where should all that capital consider going next?Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I dive into this key question in this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#interestrates #federalreserve #bondyields 

0:00 - Welcome and Introduction

2:09 - Discussion on Speculative Market Trends and Dot-Com Echoes

4:00 - Comparison to Meme Stocks and Cathie Wood-Type Tech Stocks

5:40 - Historical Context of 1998-2000 Dot-Com Boom

7:11 - Analysis of High-Beta vs. Low-Beta Stocks1

1:50 - Growth vs. Value Performance During Dot-Com Era1

4:22 - Speculative Mania and Risk Management Strategies

18:03 - Importance of Diversification and Active Management

19:41 - Growth vs. Value Index and Historical Trends

22:01 - Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap and Profitability Trends

25:06 - Recent Market Trends and High-Beta Outperformance

29:03 - Potential Triggers for High-Beta Stock Correction

33:12 - Economic Slowdown as a White Swan Risk

38:01 - Critique of BLS Data Reliability

43:31 - Need for Real-Time Data and Fed Reform

47:51 - Model-Based Fed Policy and Transparency

50:21 - Bond Market Dynamics and Yield Curve Strategy

56:26 - Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Cuts

58:39 - End of T-Bill and Chill Trade Considerations

1:02:17 - Closing Remarks and Call to Action

1:04:14 - Michael’s Advice on Separating Politics from Investing_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The "T-Bill & Chill" Era Is Ending. What Should Investors Do Next? | Michael Lebowitz

The great engine of American success was built by generations of pioneers, entrepreneurs, scholars, soldiers and immigrants defined by their grit, strength and resilience.Contrast that indomitable spirit with today's generational cohort of special snowflakes who seek 'safe spaces', rush to 'cancel' any discomfiting realities, and demand desired outcomes without putting in the effort to achieve them.What happens to a society when it loses its backbone?And once lost, how if at all, can it be regained?For insights, we're fortunate to speak with Gregory Lukianoff president of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, and co-author of the NYT best-selling book The Coddling Of The American Mind.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#genz #millennials #demographics _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The Coddling Of The American Mind: Good Times Have Created Weak Men | Greg Lukianoff

2026 forward corporate earning estimates are the farthest they have ever been from historical averages.This makes a future downward revision a near-guarantee at this point; which will in turn force stocks to reprice downwards as well.So warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.While he doesn't see much on the immediate radar to suggest the market is in any near-term trouble, he's concerned this lurking repricing risk will grow the more that earning estimates distort to the upside.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#corporateearnings #aistocks #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Dangerously Rosy Earnings Estimates Will Plunge Stocks When They Adjust | Lance Roberts

Today, you're in for a real treat folks.We welcome back to the program one of my all-time favorite humans, Joel Salatin.Named "the most famous farmer in America", Joel has spent his career advocating for sustainable farming practices, and pioneering models that show how food can be grown & raised in ways that:- are regenerative to our topsoils- are more humane to livestock- produce much healthier, tastier food- contribute profitably to the local economyWho wouldn't want that?Well, the government and Big Ag for starters.Joel refers to himself a "lunatic farmer" because so many of the changes he thinks our food systems need are either illegal under current law or mightily resisted by the deep-pocketed corporations controlling production and distribution.But that doesn't stop him from his passion of inspiring others to take a better path. He co-owns and operates, with his family, Polyface Farm in Swoope, Virginia. Featured in the New York Times bestseller Omnivore’s Dilemma and award-winning documentary Food Inc., the farm services more than 5,000 families, 50 restaurants, 10 retail outlets, and a farmers’ market with produce and pastured beef, pork, poultry, as well as forestry products. On the farm, Joel and his staff pilot new practices, mentor young farmers, educate the public, and produce an excellent set of workshops for those looking to truly 'get their hands dirty' learning how to farm sustainably.He's a true hero to many, including me. And I predict he'll be one of yours, too, by the end of this discussion.For a very important look into the failures & promise of our nation’s food system, watch this video

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#farming #organicfood #healthyfood _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Breaking Our Slavery To The Industrial Food Complex | Joel Salatin

When the precious metals enter into a bull market, the shares of the companies that mine them usually outperform the price gains of gold and silver -- sometimes wildly.Well, a precious metals bull market is currently underway and the mining shares are indeed starting to come to life.How much farther do they likely have to run?And when investing in precious metals mining companies, what should investors look for?For answers, we have the good fortune to welcome analyst Jeff Clark back to the program. Jeff is the publisher of the Gold Advisor family of mining stock newsletters and author of the book Paydirt: Mining for Profits with Gold & Silver Stocks.While Jeff says the "easy money" has now been made in the mining stock sector, don't fret if you've missed it -- because he also predicts the "big money" still lies ahead.

HOW SHOULD MINING STOCKS FIT INTO YOUR OVERALL PORTFOLIO? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE CONSULTATION with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comTo find out why and how to position for it, watch this video.#gold #silver #miningstocks _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The "Big Money" Still Lies Ahead | Jeff Clark

In his appearance at Thoughtful Money's Spring online conference back in March, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, warned of an oncoming liquidity air pocket.Which was why the market's subsequent plunge of nearly 20% in the following month wasn't a surprise to him.So, where does he see liquidity headed for the rest of 2025?To find out why, we'll sit down today with the man himself.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#liquidity #debt #federalreserve _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Bullish For Rest Of 2025, But Bearish For 2026 | Michael Howell

The market has been in a "bullish stampede" for an impressive while now.

But with corporate earnings deviated by a record amount from their historic averages, extreme stock valuations, and now clear signs the economy is slowing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees the odds of a market correction -- and a recession -- rising.

Is there a chance that correction began on Friday?

Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as breakdown the latest economic data, this week's FOMC decision, recession chances, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #bullmarket #bearmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Did The Rally In Stocks Just End? | Lance Roberts

The initial Q2 2025 GDP growth number was just released and it beat expectations handily, coming in at a "strong" 3.0%But...when looking just a little bit beneath the surface, the data doesn't look as impressive as on first glance. For example, the biggest contributor by far to the "beat" was shrinking inventories relative to the massive Q1 pre-orders that were made as corporations front-ran the Trump tariffs.So, just as the negative Q1 GDP number wasn't truly as bad as it seemed, similarly the Q2 number isn't as robust as the headline suggests.The team from New Harbor Financial and I dig into what the true reality likely is, as well as discuss the latest FOMC release, the tremendous amount of speculation in the markets today, and the latest price action in gold, silver and Bitcoin.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#economy #federalreserve #gdp _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

"Strong" Q2 GDP Growth Not Actually As Robust As It Sounds? | New Harbor Financial

Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. 

And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days.

Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as the week progressed. Whether or not this is the beginning of a Great Rotation from Big Growth into Small Value remains to be seen.

But more interesting to Lance is that credit spreads are starting to widen in lower-quality bonds. This is the first rumblings of concern we've seen in the part of the market that truly matters.

Is a sleeping dragon awakening here?

Lance and I discuss that as well as the likely economic implications of Trump's economic plan, whether the Fed will really cut rates in September, and Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#creditspreads #trumpeconomy #interestrates

Rough Week For Stocks As Credit Spreads Issue Warning | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

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