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Nate Hagens

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens explores money, energy, economy, and the environment with world experts and leaders to understand how everything fits together, and where we go from here.

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores the relationship between technology and wealth when viewed through a global biophysical lens. He uses the visualization of a straw, siphon, and sieve to describe how technology enables the acceleration of physical resource extraction and the concentration and filtering of resulting 'wealth' towards the human species. Running contrary to the commonly-held idea that technology automatically creates monetary wealth (and therefore prosperity), this episode asks listeners to view real wealth as the underlying stocks and flows that make life on Earth possible – whether in the form of forests, social trust, or entire functioning ecosystems. 
 
Nate also discusses the ways that technologies have been deployed to rearrange natural systems around narrow, growth-centric priorities throughout much of human history. Utilizing examples regarding agriculture, finance, and artificial intelligence, he suggests that tools effective at small scales might behave very differently when applied globally – setting us on the path to overshoot that we find ourselves walking today.
 
If technology reflects human priorities, what does current innovation and development reveal about what we currently value? What would it mean to shift towards prioritizing life-giving flows within natural systems and away from accelerating the liquidation of Earth's stocks? Finally, how can societies and individuals begin to distinguish between innovation that serves to borrow from our future versus genuine progress toward a more stable world?
 
(Recorded December 25, 2025)
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
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Technology and Wealth: The Straw, the Siphon, and the Sieve | Frankly 119

For decades, the West has outsourced its own material production to other countries, in favor of lower costs and short-term returns over more expensive, long-duration investments like mining and manufacturing. But while this has seemed like a success on the surface, it has left us with a society based on consumption, unable to produce what we need on our own. What are the deeper costs of this long-term offshoring – including for our geopolitical, climate, and technological ambitions?
 
In this conversation, Nate is joined by materials expert and investor Craig Tindale, who explores the profound vulnerabilities facing Western economies by what he calls "Industrialization 2.0." Craig argues that decades of central banking policies favoring consumption and short-term returns have led the West to offshore virtually all materials production and processing to China – limiting the West's ability to defend itself, as well as rebuild industrial capacity to address the growing technological needs of climate and AI. Tindale also introduces his "four clocks" framework, which describes how corporate quarterly cycles, 10-20 year climate urgency, immediate defense needs, and continuous consumption addiction are all ticking at different speeds and pulling society in incompatible directions. Furthermore, he posits that Silicon Valley's "unspoken bet" is on human obsolescence, with capital flowing to robot owners rather than human workers.
 
How do all of these pieces – monetary policy, critical materials, climate action, geopolitical risk, and technological displacement – fit together to create a perfect storm for humanity's future? Why might the only path to a circular economy be "through the valley of death" – forced by necessity rather than choice? And what types of practical investments and technological innovations are needed to make our societies more resilient in the face of impending geopolitical and economic turbulence?
 
(Conversation recorded on December 10th, 2025)
 
 
 
About Craig Tindale:
 
Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies. 
 
He's now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships. 
 
 
 
Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Why the West Can't Defend Itself: How Material Scarcity Is Reshaping the World Order with Craig Tindale

In this week's Frankly, Nate shares reflections on what we take for granted in life at multiple scales: from personal health to meaningful work to relative ecological stability. The things that keep our everyday lives functioning often go unnoticed until they're needed or suddenly absent, suggesting that real wealth might come in the form of reliability rather than material gain. Nate also considers what has happened to our attention in an age of constantly-available stimulation, reflecting on how moving towards a quieter and slower lifestyle (whether by choice or by external circumstances) might engage us with small joys that have been forgotten in pursuit of quick dopamine.
 
 
 
When do you most acutely notice the (mostly) invisible supports that make our lives feel effortless, if ever? How has constant access to dopamine and stimulation shaped how your mind conceptualizes and responds to rest or relief? Finally, what does it mean to live freely and with autonomy in systems that increasingly shape our behavior without requiring consent or awareness?
 
(Recorded January 6, 2026)
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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The Things We Take for Granted | Frankly 118

Dopamine: the most famous neurotransmitter that regulates pleasure, motivation, and (perhaps most importantly) addiction. When examining why our society is hooked on consuming more and more of everything – food, clothes, videos, news, vacations – it's imperative to look at how our modern environments hijack our brain's dopamine, sending it into overdrive at nearly every turn. Could taking a closer look at how our societal norms make us more vulnerable to addiction help us transition to more balanced and mindful lifestyles?
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by New York Times bestselling author and professor of psychiatry, Anna Lembke, to explore how modern society has "drugified" our lived experience through digital media, processed foods, and instant gratification, resulting in an environment that propagates addiction. She explains how dopamine works as our brain's reward signal and why our ancient wiring is mismatched for today's level of high-dopamine stimuli in everyday life – leading to tolerance, withdrawal, and even anhedonia. Ultimately, Anna emphasizes that addiction is not a personal failing but a predictable response to an environment designed to take advantage of our brain's neurochemistry.
 
What are the key practices individuals can use to reduce their addictive tendencies, even as our culture continues to prioritize quick dopamine hits and consumption? How long does it take to see the positive effects after moving away from the stimulus related to our addictive behavior? Lastly, if we acknowledge that information alone isn't enough, what cultural shifts can we make to foster more connection, digital mindfulness, and authenticity, in order to return to a slower, lower throughput way of living?
 
(Conversation recorded on November 18th, 2025) 
 
 
 
About Anna Lembke:
 
Anna Lembke is professor of psychiatry at Stanford University School of Medicine and chief of the Stanford Addiction Medicine Dual Diagnosis Clinic. As a clinician scholar, she has published more than a hundred peer-reviewed papers, book chapters, and commentaries. She sits on the board of several state and national addiction-focused organizations, has testified before various committees in the United States House of Representatives and Senate, and maintains a thriving clinical practice.
 
In 2016, she published Drug Dealer, MD – How Doctors Were Duped, Patients Got Hooked, and Why It's So Hard to Stop, which was highlighted in the New York Times as one of the top five books to read to understand the opioid epidemic. Dr. Lembke also appeared on the Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma, an unvarnished look at the impact of social media on our lives. 
 
Her most recent book, Dopamine Nation: Finding Balance in the Age of Indulgence, explores how to moderate compulsive overconsumption in a dopamine-overloaded world and is a New York Times Bestseller.
 
 
 
Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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How We've 'Drugified' Our Entire Existence: Dopamine & Addiction In the Digital Age with Anna Lembke

In this week's Frankly, Nate takes thermodynamics out of the physics classroom, utilizing its principles to explain the invisible forces behind growth, competition, and complexity in our world. Competing life systems build organization out of chaos in order to maximize power usage today, even if it potentially undermines survival tomorrow. Within our energetic reality of finite and destabilizing fossil fuels, this tendency towards instant power accelerates us towards planetary overshoot.
 
Nate poses a question in response to this tendency: What happens when a species becomes conscious of the self-fulfilling drive to maximize energy flow? He suggests a "fifth law" of thermodynamics, which explains that a self-aware species might evolve to consciously prioritize future security over short-term gains. This "law" serves as a hopeful and mind-expanding invitation to rethink efficiency, progress, and wisdom in the world we experience today.
 
What invisible energy gradients steer your daily habits and decisions? Could a culture actually choose slower, steadier flows without collapsing creativity, freedom, or joy? And, if intelligence doesn't guarantee wisdom, what feedbacks might help us prefer enduring power over maximum power?
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future
 
 
 
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Behavioral Thermodynamics Part 1: Beyond the 4th Law?

In this week's episode, Nate reflects on four years(!) of the podcast by answering listener-submitted questions, which cover a broad range of topics related to The Great Simplification. He invites subscribers to investigate how they navigate a complex and ever-changing world, while avoiding overly prescriptive solutions that brush aside personal agency and the inherent uncertainty that exists in our world.
 
Whether it's outlining his own evolving theory of change or emphasizing the importance of self-care and psychological grounding, Nate speaks to the epistemological resilience that we will increasingly need to cultivate in the face of a changing world. He shares deeper questions that have emerged through decades of research and conversations, his own hopes and concerns for the future, and even an updated vision for this podcast going into the new year – all to help synthesize his experience creating this media space as a nexus for the vast, interdisciplinary, and essential knowledge that demystifies the human predicament.
 
Why do small points of disagreement so often overshadow what we have in common? How do we stay grounded and connected to community as disagreement and fear grow louder? And, what does meaningful change look like when traditional levers like policy, technology, and growth seem insufficient?
 
 
 
About Nate Hagens:
 
Dr. Nate Hagens is the Executive Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF), an organization focused on educating and preparing society for the coming cultural transition. Formerly in the finance industry at Lehman Brothers and Salomon Brothers, in 2003 Nate shifted his focus to the interrelationships between energy, ecology, economics & human behavior and their subsequent implications for human futures. 
 
He has co-authored the books Reality Blind - Integrating the Systems Science Underpinning Our Collective Futures - Vol 1 and The Bottlenecks of the 21st Century and has appeared on PBS, BBC, ABC and NPR, and lectures around the world. Nate holds a Master's Degree in Finance with Honors from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont. He lives on a small farm in Wisconsin with his pack of rescue dogs, as well as horses, chickens, and ducks.
 
(Recorded on December 10, 2025) 
 
 
 
Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future
 
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End of Year Reflections: Four Years of The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

In this week's episode, Nate unpacks the pervasive behavioral pull of sunk cost as a force shaping our material reality, identities, and collective expectations about the future. Past investments – in careers, possessions, and cultural narratives – lock us into patterns of defending what might no longer actually serve us. This tendency becomes more and more relevant as the world shifts in ways that demand adaptability rather than stagnancy. Deep loyalty to former choices, even as we absorb new information about our lived environments, can limit our ability to make wiser, more future-oriented decisions.
 
By widening the sunk cost lens beyond solely economic terms, Nate reveals how previous, culturally-inherited attachments influence everything from suburban infrastructure to household decision-making. Loosening the grip of sunk cost on our society may require careful pruning of our current lifestyles so that we may regain agency to build up the skills required to flourish in an uncertain future.
 
Which parts of your own life feel tethered more to past effort than present and future value? How might the built environment around you shape what feels necessary in your life? And, what new "status stories" could be told to help your community transition towards a more resilient future?
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Sunk Cost and the Superorganism | Frankly 116

While current conversations about global heating tend to center around a few well-established pieces of science, we don't often hear about the scientists and leaders working at the frontier of what is still unknown about Earth's systems. This includes unpredictable tipping points and cascading effects of our rapidly changing climate, as well as the unconventional adaptation strategies that might help us maintain a stable planet. What is the newest climate science being researched right now, and what areas are we still needing to explore as we fight for a livable future? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by climate philanthropist Kelly Erhart to discuss the urgent state of climate science and emerging response strategies beyond traditional mitigation and adaptation. Kelly explains the climate research that reveals increasingly alarming risks, including natural feedback loops such as glacier collapse, declining albedo (the reflectivity of Earth), and methane release from melting permafrost. They also discuss frontier emergency climate interventions such as oceanic carbon sequestration, atmospheric methane removal, and glacier stabilization strategies, among others – while emphasizing that none of these replace the need for the drastic reduction of emissions.
 
What are the biggest climate questions that are currently being researched? How can an interdisciplinary approach help us better understand the climate mitigation and adaptation options available to us? And finally, how do we, especially the youngest among us, maintain hope and motivation to continue working towards better outcomes for humanity and the planet? 
 
(Conversation recorded on September 26th, 2025) 
 
 
 
About Kelly Erhart:
 
Kelly Erhart is the Director of Partnerships at Outlier Projects (a climate philanthropy).
 
Her work at Outlier Projects focuses on funding teams that are accelerating research on efforts to improve forecasting of catastrophic risks, and research on tools that could help stabilize climate systems at the necessary speed and scale. Previously, she was a repeat climate non-profit founder and entrepreneur; including co-founding Vesta, a pioneering ocean-based carbon dioxide removal approach.
 
Erhart's multidisciplinary background spans climate technology development and commercialization, nonprofit leadership, entrepreneurship, and philanthropy. Erhart was also named one of Forbes 30 under 30 for Energy and Green Tech in 2026.
 
 
 
Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Fighting for a Livable Future: Exploring Frontier Climate Interventions with Kelly Erhart

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores how the prices we encounter in our daily lives are influenced by not only how much money is in the system, but also by resource depletion, technology, affordability by 'the masses,' and trust within a complex global system.
 
Prices are deeply intertwined with the biophysical reality that underpins our society, and are affected by major forces that often operate unseen to the average consumer. Other forces – like leverage, complexity, and currency reform – also have longer term repercussions within our monetary system. These have the ability to create both inflationary and deflationary effects on price, amplifying notions of prosperity and fragility within our current social contract. Ecological instability, often treated as peripheral to financial/price analysis, has emerged as another driver of prices, even as extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and breached planetary boundaries will increasingly feed directly into the cost structures of our modern civilization.
 
Where are the gaps within our existing conceptions of money and prices? What might follow the past few centuries of increasing societal and economic complexity? And how do prices – and societies – change when monetary claims and physical reality begin pulling in opposite directions?
 
(Recorded December 1st, 2025)
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Inflation, Deflation, & Simplification: The 8 Things That Influence Prices | Frankly 115

Technological development has always been a double-edged sword for humanity: the printing press increased the spread of misinformation, cars disrupted the fabric of our cities, and social media has made us increasingly polarized and lonely. But it has not been since the invention of the nuclear bomb that technology has presented such a severe existential risk to humanity – until now, with the possibility of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) on the horizon. Were ASI to come to fruition, it would be so powerful that it would outcompete human beings in everything – from scientific discovery to strategic warfare. What might happen to our species if we reach this point of singularity, and how can we steer away from the worst outcomes? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by Nate Soares, an AI safety researcher and co-author of the book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All. Together, they discuss many aspects of AI and ASI, including the dangerous unpredictability of continued ASI development, the "alignment problem," and the newest safety studies uncovering increasingly deceptive AI behavior. Soares also explores the need for global cooperation and oversight in AI development and the importance of public awareness and political action in addressing these existential risks. 
 
How does ASI present an entirely different level of risk than the conventional artificial intelligence models that the public has already become accustomed to? Why do the leaders of the AI industry persist in their pursuits, despite acknowledging the extinction-level risks presented by continued ASI development? And will we be able to join together to create global guardrails against this shared threat, taking one small step toward a better future for humanity? 
 
(Conversation recorded on November 11th, 2025) 
 
 
 
About Nate Soares:
 
Nate Soares is the President of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), and plays a central role in setting MIRI's vision and strategy. Soares has been working in the field for over a decade, and is the author of a large body of technical and semi-technical writing on AI alignment, including foundational work on value learning, decision theory, and power-seeking incentives in smarter-than-human AIs. Prior to MIRI, Soares worked as an engineer at Google and Microsoft, as a research associate at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and as a contractor for the US Department of Defense.
 
 
 
Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future
 
Join our Substack newsletter
 
 Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The Things We Take for Granted | Frankly 118

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