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Nate Hagens

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens explores money, energy, economy, and the environment with world experts and leaders to understand how everything fits together, and where we go from here.

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

As America marks its 250th birthday, Nate takes a moment to step outside of the celebrations to seek out a wider boundary perspective on this week's holiday. He poses the question of whether the United States has truly matured as a nation over two and a half centuries, particularly through the lenses of energy, ecology, history, and culture. Nate walks through the extraordinary inheritance of fossil fuels that simultaneously shaped the American story while masking the real foundations of prosperity. He points out that even the symbols of this holiday – from backyard barbecues to fireworks lighting the night sky – are products of complex supply chains that are created by drawing down the living biosphere. 
 
Overall, this conversation reflects on what it means to become an "adult nation" in an age of limits. Alongside the costs of endless expansion, like declining wildlife and lower mental wellbeing, come reasons to hold hope for this nation – our traditions of reinvention, our conservation legacy, and our growing movement toward stronger local communities based in resilience and reciprocity. As the era of "more" begins to fade, perhaps the next chapter of this country will be measured not by what we consume, but by how well we learn to share the table with one another and the rest of life. 
 
How did geography and fossil deposits shape both America's greatest successes and greatest blind spots? What would it mean for America to "grow up" as a nation after 250 years? And if the age of endless expansion is ending, what kind of future might we be capable of building in its place? 
 
(Recorded June 29th, 2026)
 
 
 
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A Legacy Worth Celebrating? Reflecting on 250 Years of the American Experiment | Frankly 149

This week, Nate continues his "How to Think About the Future" series, where he invites listeners to imagine what it's like to live in different versions of the reality that lies ahead. In today's edition, Nate builds upon the frameworks outlined in part three to create four distinct future worlds – composites that emerge from various combinations of economic conditions, geopolitical scenarios, power structures, and Earth systems stability. The resulting worlds are not meant to serve as a prediction, but as a set of thought experiments designed to stretch our imagination and to sharpen our understanding of how societal shifts show up in our everyday lives. 
 
Along the way, Nate also explores why some of these futures seem more stable than others, why economic contraction does not necessarily mean collapse, and why power distribution may matter more than the economic headlines. As Nate unpacks the logic of the four potential worlds, he emphasizes that we are not yet locked into any one outcome – the choices made by communities, regions, and institutions today still determine which valleys remain reachable tomorrow. This episode is an invitation to think beyond conventional narratives of progress and to consider what conditions make a future not just stable, but worth living in.
 
What would daily life actually feel like in a world of managed contraction, ecological overshoot, authoritarian control, or systemic breakdown? Which institutions and practices are most important to preserve today, while the future remains unwritten? And why might the most desirable future also be the one that looks least like progress by today's economic measures?
 
(Recorded June 9th, 2026)
 
 
 
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Mordor to the Long Repair: How Might Daily Life Feel in the Next Decades? | How to Think About the Future Part 4, Frankly 148

This year's projected Super El Niño forming in the Pacific could become one of the strongest climate oscillations in over a century. As regions prepare for the effects, and continue to adapt to extreme heat waves, intensifying storms, accelerating ice loss, and increasingly erratic rainfall, scientists and citizens alike are questioning what our new normal will look like under accelerated global heating. From climate basics to unfolding atmospheric research, what do we know about the trajectory our climate is currently on, and what gaps of knowledge still need to be filled? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for an exploration of the mechanics and mathematics of global heating itself. Tad explains why CO₂ has such an outsized effect in contrast to its small concentration, how water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect, and why climate models sometimes get things wrong. His new research, currently under peer review at Geophysical Research Letters, identifies a declining Earth albedo as an additional accelerant of warming over the past 26 years. Combined with accelerating ocean heat absorption, melting ice sheets, and the dynamics of an approaching Super El Niño, Tad argues the warming curve itself may be bending upward.
 
Is the projected Super El Niño a signal of more extreme climatic swings to come? What sort of research is being done to explore and predict climate feedback dynamics that are only partly understood? And if the warming curve is indeed bending upward, what does it mean to plan, prepare, or adapt when the system itself may be moving faster than our models anticipated?
 
(Conversation recorded on June 18th, 2026) 
 
 
 
 
About Tad Patzek:
 
Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee.
 
Patzek's current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 (Preprint available now)
 
 
 
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We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores a pattern of thinking that permeates so many of our conversations: we often decide what we think before we've fully heard what's being said. Using the metaphor of a chessboard, he invites listeners to examine how we process information through a series of expanding perspectives. At the closest range, we instinctively assess people and ideas through lenses of threat, familiarity, and belonging. Soon after, conversations become filtered through ideologies, tribes, and cultural labels. That makes it harder to separate the argument itself from the person or source presenting it. From renewable energy to geopolitical conflicts, Nate presents real-world examples of how these deeply human shortcuts can limit our ability to learn from one another and shape the trajectory of our civilization itself.
 
As the camera continues to pull back, a larger picture emerges. Beyond personalities and factions lie the structural forces shaping our world: energy, economics, and the biophysical realities that underpin civilization. The view widens again to include the living Earth itself, along with the possibility of a different future beyond the trajectory of our current social and economic game. Nate argues that the work of our time is learning to hold those instinctive ways of thinking alongside broader systems perspectives, so we can see the whole board without feeling pushed across it.
 
Are our strongest convictions helping us understand the world, or narrowing what we're able to see? How does the scale of our perspective shape the futures we believe are reachable? And if a more resilient future is possible, what kinds of thinking will help us find a path toward it?
 
(Recorded June 16th, 2026)
 
 
 
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How to Play 5D Chess: It's Not What You Think | Frankly 147

Self-fulfilling prophecies; manifestations; the Oedipus Effect: Humanity has long had an intuition that the stories we tell ourselves the most are often the stories we make come true. Science has found more and more evidence to back this up, through both historical cultural analysis as well as unexpected neurological connections in our brains. If we fully accept this, then what sort of future are we telling with our current cultural narratives, and is there still time to write a new one? 
 
In this episode, Nate welcomes Rob Hopkins, co-founder of the Transition Network and author of "How to Fall in Love with the Future," for an exploration of what tips people over the edge and into action to build more livable futures, and what role imagination plays in cultural motivation and agency. Rob explains the neuroscience behind envisioning the future, explaining the link between memory and imagination, and how chronic stress and cortisol can shrink our capacity to picture the future. Drawing on research showing that creativity and imagination scores have been declining for decades, he argues that our collective inability to vividly picture a better future may be the deepest barrier to building one. Throughout the conversation, Rob and Nate wrestle with a central tension: how to be honest about the scale of the predicament while still cultivating the kind of longing that moves people to act, and what role grief, limits, and slowing down might play in that process. 
 
In a culture that puts many of us in constant states of anxiety and stress, what happens to our ability to imagine and dream of the future? What would it take for more of us to feel, not just intellectually understand, that a lower-energy, more localized future could also be a more beautiful one, if only we plant the seeds for it to grow? And if the tools for building more local, resilient futures already exist, but the first step is to create a sense of longing for them, then what gap does that open up in each of our communities, today, to start putting these ideas into action?
 
(Conversation recorded on April 21st, 2026) 
 
 
 
 
About Rob Hopkins:
 
Rob Hopkins is the co-founder of Transition Network and of Transition Town Totnes, and author of several books including "The Transition Handbook" and most recently, "How to Fall in Love with the Future: A Time Traveller's Guide to Changing the World." He is an Ashoka Fellow, has spoken at TED Global and at several TEDx events, and appeared in the 2015 French film phenomenon "Demain." 
 
He holds a PhD from the University of Plymouth as well as 2 Honoris Causas, and hosted 100 episodes of his podcast "From What If to What Next." In November 2022 he was made an Honorary Citizen of Liège in Belgium. His collaborative music project with artist Mr Kit, "Field Recordings from the Future" is now available, and is being developed as a live show which will tour in 2026. His website is robhopkins.net. 
 
 
 
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No More Dystopian Stories: How to See a Future Worth Living In with Rob Hopkins

This week's Frankly is another in Nate's recurring series Uncomfortable Questions for Unsettled Times, in which he poses questions about our shared future. Today, he uses headlines regarding a potential ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran to confront a subject that has re-entered public discourse with a quiet but startling force: nuclear warfare. Through a wide-boundary lens, Nate outlines how the renewed discussion of nuclear force raises questions that extend far beyond the current conflict, including important (and uncomfortable) questions about nuclear proliferation, human psychology, and the erosion of long-standing taboos. He considers the possibility that many of today's geopolitical tensions are symptoms of deeper shifts underway in the global balance of power, and asks what happens when societies begin revisiting assumptions that once seemed settled.
 
While renewed public discussion around nuclear weapons provides the immediate context, this episode is ultimately less about any single weapon or conflict, and more about the forces shaping human decision-making during periods of uncertainty and transition.
 
Why do societies tend to realize the importance of a norm only when it is being broken? Are today's conflicts fundamentally about ideology and security, or are they about power, resources, and influence in a changing world? And what happens when established assumptions about global leadership, cooperation, and stability are put to the test?
 
(Recorded June 15th, 2026)
 
 
 
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The Ultimate Alternative: Are You Okay With Nuclear Warfare? | Frankly 146

This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation.
 
In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what's happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait's closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos.
 
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical power? How does everyday life change when price signals stop working and access is defined by availability rather than cost? And if this crisis truly accelerates the fracturing of our hyper-connected, globalized world into polarized blocs of energy and production, how might the disruption, for better or worse, shake up nearly a century of the macroeconomic theory that has shaped every part of our lives? 
 
(Conversation recorded on June 9th, 2026)

 
 
 
About Michael Every:
 
Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank with over two decades of experience. He analyzes major financial developments and contributes to the bank's various economic research publications.

 
Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.
 
 
 
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The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every

Many of us lack meaningful community in our lives, either from a complete absence of relationships or simply the sense of disconnection from those around us. In response, a growing number of people attempt to cultivate community based on shared values and interests, which inadvertently reproduces the very labeling that keeps real connection forming. The systemic forces that created this separation are real, but what if the deeper problem is that most of us have never actually learned how to commune with each other in the first place?
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by Nora Bateson, creator of Warm Data Labs, alongside her colleagues Jonathan Goldsmith and Lucas Jackson, for a rich conversation about what it actually takes to build community and why so many of our attempts fail. Drawing on Nora's concept of "communing" as the necessary precursor to community, the group explores how genuine human connection is being undermined by algorithmic fragmentation, scripted discourse, and cultures rooted in transaction and individualism. Rather than offering a formula for community-building, they make the case for something older: practices of mutual learning, radical hospitality, and a way of relating to others that breaks us out of the confines of our perceived roles. Together, they argue that the first step to being part of community is letting go of preconceived notions of what you are owed from the people around you, instead taking the first leap of giving more of oneself, and subsequently setting in motion the cycles of trust and generosity that keep a system alive.
 
 
 
What fundamental pieces get lost when communities skip directly to organizing, logistics, and shared objectives? Why do the dark triad traits find less hold in spaces built around curiosity and mutual learning? And how does the act of generosity shift when it comes from a sense of shared aliveness and the knowledge that tending to the broader whole is how we must also tend to ourselves? 
 
 
 
About Nora Bateson
 
Nora Bateson is a filmmaker, writer, researcher, and educator, and the founder and president of the International Bateson Institute. Her work focuses on the study of complex living systems and the development of "Warm Data" – a methodology for understanding the relational and contextual dimensions of systemic health. She is the author of Small Arcs of Larger Circles, and the creator of the acclaimed documentary An Ecology of Mind, a portrait of her father, systems thinker Gregory Bateson. Nora's work spans education, ecology, health, organizational change, and community, with the unifying thread of asking how we perceive and tend to the complexity of life together.
 
 
 
About Jonathan Goldsmith
 
Jonathan Goldsmith is a therapist, facilitator, and educator working at the intersection of systems thinking, relational practice, and community wellbeing. As a core member of the International Bateson Institute team, Jonathan brings the lens of mutual learning and ecological awareness to his work with individuals, groups, and organizations. He is a trained Warm Data host and has facilitated labs internationally.
 
 
 
About Lucas Jackson
 
Lucas Jackson is an educator, facilitator, and Warm Data host based in Vermont. He found his way to the International Bateson Institute through the Warm Data host training in 2020, and has since woven the practice of Warm Data into his teaching, community work, and relational life. His work centers on learning, perception, and the conditions that allow people to genuinely encounter one another.
 
 
 
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Why 'Community' Fails: Everyone Wants a Village, Nobody Wants to Be a Villager with Nora Bateson, Jonathan Goldsmith & Lucas Jackson | RR 26

This week's Frankly is part three of the series How to Think About the Future. Today, Nate builds a framework for understanding the pathways that connect today's choices to tomorrow's realities. Drawing from biology, ecology, history, and systems thinking, he introduces a civilizational terrain of ridges and valleys that is constantly shifting as we are moving through it. Nate also uses the concepts of switchbacks and erosion to explain why some futures emerge by default from existing incentives and momentum, while others require deliberate effort, coordination, and sustained commitment.
 
Through examples that range from cell development to lake ecosystems to political systems, Nate examines how complex systems settle into stable states, and why some transitions are far easier to make than to reverse. As economic, geopolitical, and ecological pressures reshape the landscape we traverse, knowing which futures are downhill and which require climbing becomes increasingly important. The episode offers a conceptual tool for interpreting the composite worlds Nate will outline in the next part of the series, and invites listeners to consider both where they stand in the terrain and whether their daily actions are building pathways toward a more desirable future, or letting those paths erode.
 
How do societies become trapped in self-reinforcing systems, and what does that look like in our current reality? Which futures seem most likely if present incentives and momentum hold? And which social, cultural, or ecological switchbacks are being built today that could open new possibilities tomorrow
 
(Recorded May 22nd, 2026)
 
 
 
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How to Think About the Future (Part 3): Uphill Futures in a Downhill World | Frankly 145

The Dust Bowl of the 1930s is one of the worst ecological disasters in American history. Across the great plains, roughly 2.5 million people left the region over the decade, amid severe crop failures, livestock losses and widespread hunger. Caused by drought and extreme land degradation, this regional collapse is also an example of what is now happening in ecosystems across the globe. The glimmer of hope in this story lies in the equally remarkable recovery of the Dust Bowl region, which has continued on as one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. What if we could name and replicate the techniques used to rehabilitate this once inhospitable landscape and use them to restore and regenerate local ecosystems across the planet? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by regenerative change practitioner Brett KenCairn for a conversation that reframes the dominant narrative about climate change, emphasizing that it was never just a carbon problem but also one centered on living systems degradation. Brett explains that the desolation of foundational, life-supporting ecosystems has resulted in our planet now operating at roughly half its biological productive capacity. Remarkably, this reframing also clears the way for a path forward: because most degradation is due to how humans have used the land, it means – if we act soon – altering our use of the land can also help regenerate lost capacity. Brett describes how his team and other regenerative experts are attempting to do just that by restoring biodiversity, water cycles, photosynthetic capacity, and (most importantly) opening the door to broad community participation through training, compensation, and meaningful work. 
 
What sorts of regenerative techniques might help bolster our local ecosystems' capacities to buffer, absorb, and cycle energy in order to support life during the extremes ahead? How could we alter our economic and social incentives to better support those doing the critical work to stabilize local ecology? And lastly, could the principles of living systems regeneration also act as an opportunity to reconnect with our place among the web of life, paving the way toward a humanity rooted in stewardship and reciprocity? 
 
(Conversation recorded on May 13th, 2026)
 
 
 
About Brett KenCairn:
 
Brett KenCairn is the Founding Director of Center for Regenerative Solutions and Senior Policy Advisor for Climate and Resilience in the City of Boulder's Climate Initiatives Team. He coordinates the city's nature-based solutions work. Brett has worked across the western US in community-based initiatives in rural, Native American, and other marginalized communities. He is the co-founder of multiple organizations including the Rogue River Institute for Ecology and Economy, Veterans Green Jobs, and Community Energy Systems.
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
 
 
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Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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How to Think About the Future (Part 3): Uphill Futures in a Downhill World | Frankly 145

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