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The China-Global South Project

Twice-weekly discussion about China's engagement across Africa and the Global South hosted by journalist Eric Olander and Asia-Africa scholar Cobus van Staden in Johannesburg.

The China in Africa Podcast

There's growing optimism across Africa, Latin America, and Asia that abundant reserves of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel can fuel a new era of economic development. Determined to avoid the "resource curse" that enriched foreign companies while leaving local populations behind, governments are increasingly moving to ban exports of raw ores and instead promote domestic processing and refining.
 
It's an appealing strategy, but far more difficult to implement than many realize.
 
Wei Shen and Anabel Marín, senior research fellows at the Institute of Development Studies in London, argue that processing alone won't transform resource-rich economies. In a new paper, they explain why lasting prosperity depends on building the knowledge, institutions, and technological capabilities needed to move up the value chain. They join Eric to discuss what it will really take for developing countries to turn critical mineral wealth into sustainable development.
 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
 • Why critical minerals alone won't create prosperity
 • Can resource nationalism break the resource curse?
 • Why processing isn't enough to move up the value chain
 • The role of knowledge and state capacity in development
 • What China got right in building its mineral industry
 • How developing countries can capture more value from critical minerals
 
Show Notes:
 
 WATCH: • 
Critical minerals and development: Breaking the structural impasse • with Wei Shen and Anabel Marín
 Institute of Development Studies: • 
 China's role in critical mineral mining and its impacts • by Wei Shen
 Institute of Development Studies: • 
 Living in a material world: What critical minerals mean for development • by Wei Shen and Anabel Marín
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

Why Critical Minerals Alone Won't Make Countries Rich

There's good news and bad news for African countries in the latest China trade figures released this week. On the positive side, African exports to China surged in May and June, driven by strong demand for oil, metals, and agricultural products. China's new tariff-free policy for African goods is clearly beginning to make a difference.
 
The downside is that almost all of this export growth came from raw, unprocessed commodities, reinforcing Africa's position at the bottom of the industrial value chain. Today, roughly 90% of Africa's exports to China are raw materials, and the latest trade data shows that pattern remains firmly intact.
 
There are signs, however, that this could begin to change. Sanusha Naidu, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue in South Africa, joins Eric to discuss how Namibia and other African countries are pressing China to invest in local processing and manufacturing so more value is added before raw materials leave the continent.
 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
 • China's latest Africa trade figures
 • Winners and losers from zero tariffs
 • Beyond raw materials and mining
 • Namibia's new strategy with China
 • FOCAC 2027 priorities take shape
 • Can Africa capture more value?
 
Show Notes:
 
 South China Morning Post: • 
 China's imports from Africa surge after Beijing expands zero-tariff policy • by Mia Nurmamat
 China Ministry of Foreign Affairs: • 
 Joint Statement Between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Namibia on Building a China-Namibia Community with a Shared Future for the New Era Reuters: • 
 China's African Tariff Removals, Trade Surge Spur Yuan Adoption • by Duncan Miriri
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

What's Next for China-Africa Trade?

When China removed import tariffs on goods from all 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations earlier this year, many hailed the move as a breakthrough that could boost African exports and help narrow the growing trade imbalance between the two sides.
 
While tariff-free access makes it easier for African products to enter the Chinese market, experts caution that tariffs are only one piece of the puzzle. The bigger challenge, says Jing Gu, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Development Studies, is ensuring that African exporters are truly prepared to compete in one of the world's most demanding markets.
 
Jing joins Eric and Géraud to explain why African governments, businesses, and trade institutions need to strengthen their understanding of the Chinese market, build closer commercial relationships, and develop the logistics, distribution networks, and market expertise needed to succeed in China.
 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode • China's Zero Tariff Initiative
 • Market Access vs. Market Readiness
 • Exporting Successfully to China
 • Building China Market Expertise
 • African Trade Policy Gaps
 • Competing in China's Market
 • Rethinking FOCAC Trade Priorities
 • The Future of China-Africa Trade
 
Show Notes:
 
 Institute of Development Studies: • 
 From market access to strategic openness: The new China–Africa business relationship • by Jing Gu
 South China Morning Post: • 
 Coffee, chilies and cashews: a new recipe to spice up China-Africa trade relations • by Jevans Nyabiage
 The China-Global South Project: • 
 China's Zero-Tariff Promise to Africa Masks a Deepening Trade Imbalance • by Thierry Pairault
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

Africa's China Trade Challenge Isn't Market Access. It's Market Readiness.

Anti-immigrant protests in South Africa have raised difficult questions about race, class, and who gets targeted during waves of xenophobic anger. While Black African migrants have faced growing hostility, Chinese migrants and other foreign communities have largely avoided the same scrutiny.
 
This week, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud examine why that is, and what it reveals about poverty, politics, and state dysfunction in South Africa. They also unpack a new set of China-South Africa trade protocols that could quietly expand bilateral trade, especially as Pretoria's relationship with Washington becomes more strained.
 
Finally, they reflect on recent conversations in Nairobi, South Africa, Beijing, and New York about China, Africa, and the Global South's place in a rapidly changing world order.
 

 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
South Africa's anti-immigrant protests
 Why some migrants are targeted
 Are Chinese migrants part of the backlash?
 China-South Africa trade protocols
 Africa's trade imbalance with China
 African agency in U.S.-China competition
 

 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

South Africa's Protests, China-Africa Trade and Global South Politics

Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs.
 
Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself.
 
AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest.
 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
 • Kenya's landmark China debt deal
 • Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion
 • Why AidData challenges the narrative
 • Ethiopia's restructuring prospects
 • China's evolving lending strategy
 • The future of sovereign debt relief
 
Show Notes:
 
 AidData: • 
 Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring • by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey
 The China-Global South Project: • 
 Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

Kenya's China Debt Restructuring Explained

The Chinese government this week unveiled a new vision for the emerging post-American-led international order. In a new white paper, Beijing argued that the existing global system does not need to be replaced or rebuilt. Instead, it called for the United Nations to remain at the center of global governance while giving developing countries a greater voice in international decision-making.
 
Eric and Cobus discuss China's push for global governance reform and why many African countries are backing Beijing's position. Plus, Kenya becomes the latest front in the contest between China and Taiwan after Nairobi acquiesced to Beijing's pressure and blocked Taiwanese delegates from attending an oceans forum in Mombasa.
 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode • China's new vision for global governance
 • Why African countries support Beijing's proposal
 • The UN's role in a changing world order
 • China's growing influence in the Global South
 • Kenya blocks Taiwanese delegates from oceans forum
 • The escalating China–Taiwan contest in Africa
 
Show Notes:
 
 Full text: • 
 More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China's Principles, Proposals and Actions South China Morning Post: • 
 The white paper making China's case for new rules for the world's new frontiers • by Orange Wang
 Al Jazeera: • 
 Taiwan accuses Kenya of deporting conference delegates on China's behalf 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

China Unveils Vision for a New World Order

Taiwan's delegates to the Our Ocean Conference scheduled to take place in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa next week will not be permitted to participate, according to a well-placed source. If this is the case, it would mark the third major setback for Taiwan in Africa over the past several weeks.
 
Last month, the digital rights conference Rightscon was canceled in Lusaka, in part due to pressure from the Chinese embassy to block the participation of a small group of delegates from Taiwan. Around the same time, three African Indian Ocean island states refused to grant Taiwan President Lai Ching-te permission to overfly for a scheduled trip to Eswatini.
 
Plus, Eric, Cobus & Géraud discuss how a labor dispute at a massive Chinese-run cobalt mine in the DRC came to an end and the latest in the U.S.-China critical minerals competition in Africa.
 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
 • Taiwan's shrinking diplomatic space in Africa
 • Kenya, China, and the Taiwan question
 • Congo's critical minerals and coltan smuggling
 • Labor unrest at a major Chinese-owned mine
 • Resource nationalism vs. mining investment
 • The global race for critical mineral supply chains
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

Africa Is Closing The Door On Taiwan

Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.
 
Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
 • Trump's changing approach to Africa
 • The China "debt trap" debate
 • U.S.-China competition in Africa
 • Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
 • What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?
 
Show Notes:
 
 Sign up to The Expatriach Substack Expatriarch: • 
 USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending • by Dan Kobayashi
 Expatriarch: • 
 My Resignation from the State Department • by Dan Kobayashi
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Former State Department Insider on Washington's Muddled Africa Policy

In this week's China in Africa podcast episode, which also serves as a Round Table episode, C. Geraud Neema and Cobus van Staden break down why Europe is increasingly concerned about Chinese investment in Morocco's electric vehicle industry supply chain, and whether Brussels is ignoring Morocco's own industrial strategy.
 
The conversation then turns to the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda, comparing the U.S. quarantine response with China's medical aid approach. The controversy in Kenya over a proposed U.S. Ebola facility shows how African public opinion toward Washington may be shifting in the post-USAID era.
 
Finally, new Afrobarometer data from Seychelles reveals howshows that India and China are gaining positive influence in the Indian Ocean, while the U.S. continues to fall behind.
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@chinaglobalsouth
 
Now on Bluesky!
 
Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social 
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
 
French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
 
Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
 
Join us on Patreon!
 
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug!
 
www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

WEEK IN REVIEW: China's Africa Influence Test - Trade, Ebola & Perception

The U.S. is rapidly reshaping its trade and industrial policies to build new critical mineral supply chains as part of a broader effort to reduce the country's dependence on China for these strategic resources. So far, however, most of Washington's deals have focused primarily on securing access to raw materials such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earths.
 
That alone may not be enough to compete with China, which has spent decades investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the infrastructure, processing capacity, and skilled workforce needed to build resilient supply chains.
 
Zainab Usman, senior research scholar and managing director of international programs at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, recently published a new paper examining how the U.S. is adapting its trade policies to strengthen its critical minerals strategy. She joins Eric and Géraud from Washington to discuss whether these efforts can realistically help the United States narrow the gap with China.
 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
 • America's critical minerals strategy
 • U.S.-China supply chain competition
 • Why extraction alone isn't enough
 • The infrastructure and workforce gap
 • Trade policy as industrial policy
 • Africa's role in the minerals race
 • Can the U.S. catch up to China?
 
Show Notes:
 
 United Nations University: • 
 The International trade dimensions of the United States critical minerals security strategy • by Zainab Usman
 Bloomberg Originals: • 
The $10 Billion Hunt for the Rocks That Power the World Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions: • 
 Assessing the U.S.-China Competition for Minerals Crucial to the Development of Emerging Technologies 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

What's Next for China-Africa Trade?

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