Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk

The Kenyan Treasury last month announced a breakthrough in its years-long effort to restructure billions of dollars still owed to the China Exim Bank that were used to build the Standard Gauge Railway. The two sides agreed to convert the remaining $3.5 billion of debt from higher-interest-rate U.S. dollar-denominated loans to more affordable yuan-denominated loans, which would potentially generate $215 million in savings for the Treasury. Both Ethiopia and Indonesia are also in talks with Chinese creditors doing the same kind of currency swap to restructure billions of dollars of railway loans. Yufan Huang, a pre-doctoral fellow with the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University and one of the world's leading experts on Chinese debt restructuring, joins Eric to discuss Kenya's new swap and why the promised savings could be illusory. 📍Chapters 🎙️ Introduction – Why Kenya's debt deal matters 🚄 Background – How the SGR loans were structured 💱 Conversion – What's changing: USD→RMB explained 🏆 Winners – Kenya, China Exim Bank, and Beijing ⚖️ Risks – Currency exposure and yuan appreciation 🌍 Comparisons – Lessons from Angola, Ethiopia, and Indonesia 💬 Analysis – China's evolving debt relief strategy 🏦 Policy Context – IMF, Common Framework, and next steps 📈 Takeaways – Short-term relief or "kicking the can"? JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH: • French: www.projetafriquechine.com • | @AfrikChine • Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com • | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth