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The China-Global South Project

The China-Global South Podcast

Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs.
 
Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself.
 
AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest.
 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
 • Kenya's landmark China debt deal
 • Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion
 • Why AidData challenges the narrative
 • Ethiopia's restructuring prospects
 • China's evolving lending strategy
 • The future of sovereign debt relief
 
Show Notes:
 
 AidData: • 
Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring • by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey
 The China-Global South Project: • 
Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas

Kenya's China Debt Restructuring Explained

Two very different narratives about China's economy emerged this week. In France, G7 leaders pushed back against what they see as China's growing dominance in key industries. In Beijing, meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry urged observers to look beyond data showing acute economic weakness.
 
The reality is that China's economy is so large and complex that both narratives can be true at the same time.
 
Ker Gibbs, a longtime China-based executive and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, explores this contradiction in his new book, The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities. Ker joins Eric from San Francisco to discuss his decades of experience working in China and what companies in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere need to understand before entering the Chinese market today.
 
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
 
 • China's competing narratives of economic strength and weakness
 • Why weak consumer demand remains a major challenge
 • The role of exports in sustaining China's growth model
 • How Xi Jinping's policies are reshaping the economy
 • What foreign companies need to know before entering the China market
 • Why China's economic trajectory matters for the Global South
 
Show Notes:
 
 Amazon: • 
 The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities • by Ker Gibbs
 The New York Times: • 
 China's Spending Slowdown Deepens as Households Tighten Their Belts • by Keith Bradsher
 Reuters: • 
 G7 Leaders Tackle Reliance on China for Critical Minerals 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China's Economy Is Stronger and Weaker Than You Think

Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.
 
Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
 • Trump's changing approach to Africa
 • The China "debt trap" debate
 • U.S.-China competition in Africa
 • Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
 • What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?
 
Show Notes:
 
 Sign up to The Expatriach Substack Expatriarch: • 
 USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending • by Dan Kobayashi
 Expatriarch: • 
 My Resignation from the State Department • by Dan Kobayashi
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Former State Department Insider on Washington's Muddled Africa Policy

On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries.
 
Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies is surging, especially across developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa.
 
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a CGSP non-resident fellow, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how disruptions to global oil and gas supplies are accelerating the shift toward Chinese renewable energy and mobility solutions.
 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode • China's potential gains from the Iran war
 • Energy insecurity and the global transition shift
 • Rising demand for Chinese EVs and solar tech
 • Southeast Asia and Africa's growing role
 • The geopolitics of clean energy supply chains
 • Is China the biggest winner of the crisis?
 
Show Notes:
 
 The China-Global South Project: • 
 "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory The China-Global South Project: • 
 Why the Global South Will Become New Champions of Climate Action • by Li Shuo
 The China-Global South Project: • 
 Leading from the "Global Middle": China's Bid to Host the New Ocean Treaty • by Li Shuo
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The Iran War is Boosting China's Green Energy Sales

China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan.
 
But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are investing record amounts in South America's largest economy and buying up more of the country's vast reserves of natural resources, including oil, soybeans, and critical minerals.
 
Tulio Cariello, research and content director at the China-Brazil Business Council, joins Eric from Rio de Janeiro to discuss his latest report on Chinese investment trends in Brazil and explains why the country is now the top destination in the world for Chinese FDI.
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • Why Brazil became China's top investment destination
 • BYD, EVs, and China's growing auto dominance
 • Chinese investments in Brazil's energy and mining sectors
 • How U.S.-China tensions are reshaping Latin America
 • Brazil's role in China's Global South strategy
 • The future of China-Brazil trade and industrial ties
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China-Brazil Business Is Booming

One of the most common talking points among policymakers and analysts in Washington is the belief that China aims to replace the United States as the world's dominant power. Variations of that narrative are also widely shared in many European capitals.
 
There is little doubt that China is asserting itself more forcefully in global affairs, especially amid a new era of Great Power competition. But senior officials in Beijing have also made clear that they have little interest in taking on the full responsibilities and obligations that come with traditional global leadership.
 
In a recent Foreign Policy article, Jeremy Friedman, an associate professor at Harvard Business School, explored the limits and ambitions of China's expanding international power. He joins Eric to discuss what China wants… and what it does not want from a changing global order.
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • China's global ambitions
 • The future of U.S. power
 • Why Beijing rejects hegemony
 • Taiwan and regional security
 • Trade, tech, and critical minerals
 • The emerging world order
 
Show Notes:
 
 Foreign Policy: • 
 How Far Do China's Ambitions Reach? • by Jeremy Friedman
 East Asia Forum: • 
 China's ambitions are narrower than Washington thinks • by David Kang, Jackie Wong & Zenobia Chan
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Why China Doesn't Want to be an American-Style Hegemon

President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week hoping China could help contain the escalating U.S.-Iran crisis, but the summit underscored how limited Beijing's influence over Tehran actually is.
 
In Washington, many policymakers assume China can pressure Iran because it buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. But the reality is far more complicated, and there is little evidence the Iranian leadership would make major national security concessions at Beijing's request.
 
William Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to unpack what U.S. officials misunderstand about China's relationship with Iran, why Beijing is reluctant to use its economic leverage aggressively, and how China itself is vulnerable to the broader economic fallout from the war.
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • Why Trump wanted China's help on Iran
 • The limits of China's leverage over Tehran
 • How Iran views Beijing and Washington differently
 • Why oil is only part of China's concern
 • The economic risks of a prolonged war
 • What the Trump-Xi summit revealed about global power dynamics
 
Show Notes:
 
 The China-Global South Project • : 
 China and the Iran War: The Logic and Limitations of China's Middle East Diplomacy • by William Figuerora
 The China-Global South Project: • 
 Through Allegory, China Uses AI to Shape Its Narrative of the Iran Conflict • by William Figuerora
 The China-Global South Project: • 
 Social Media Commentators Are Misreading the China Angle in the U.S.–Israeli War • 
 With Iran • by William Figuerora
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

What Most People Get Wrong About China's Iran Strategy

China operates the world's largest fleet of deep-sea research vessels, with more than 40 ships officially tasked with civilian scientific missions. But an investigation by CNN and the environmental news outlet Mongabay found that many of these ships appear to operate in ways more in line with intelligence gathering than with purely scientific research.
 
The CNN/Mongabay investigation tracked eight vessels over a five-year period and found that they spent very little time conducting their stated objective to do deep-sea mining research and instead, according to marine trafficking data, logged extensive trips in strategic waterways and sensitive military zones that could prove critical in the event of a future maritime conflict with the United States.
 
Kara Fox, a senior reporter at CNN, and Elizabeth Alberts, a senior staff writer at Mongabay, led the joint investigation and join Eric to discuss what their findings do... and don't reveal about China's fleet of deep-sea research vessels.
 
Show Notes:
 
 CNN: • 
 China's growing influence in the Pacific is 5,000 meters deep • by Kara Fox, Elizabeth Alberts, Lou Robinson and Byron Manley
 Mongabay: • 
 China's deep-sea mining fleet may also track US submarines • by Elizabeth Alberts and Kara Fox
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • China's growing fleet of deep-sea research vessels
 • Allegations of dual-use scientific and intelligence activities
 • Deep-sea mining and the race for critical minerals
 • Why India, the U.S., and others are increasingly concerned
 • The strategic importance of undersea mapping and maritime routes
 • Environmental risks linked to deep-sea mining exploration
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Why China's Research Ships Worry Other Countries

When Panama's Supreme Court ruled that Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison's operation of two ports on either side of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, President Jose Raul Mulina said at the time that he wasn't too concerned about China retaliating.
 
Now, several months later, Mulina and other Panamanian officials are becoming increasingly concerned that this is precisely what's happening after China detained dozens of Panamanian-flagged vessels or "inspections." Separately, China called on the two shipping companies, Maersk and MSC, slated to take over operations of the Panamanian ports vacated by CK Hutchison, to reconsider — insinuating there could be severe consequences if they don't comply.
 
Pedro Armada, managing partner at Armada Risk Consulting, is following the events closely from Panama City and joins Eric to discuss the increasingly difficult position the government finds itself in between the U.S. and an increasingly assertive China.
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • China's response to Panama's port ruling
 • Rising tensions around the Panama Canal
 • Delays targeting Panamanian-flagged ships
 • U.S. pressure on Chinese influence
 • Maersk and MSC caught in the middle
 • The bigger U.S.-China rivalry
 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China Flexes Power In Panama Canal Clash

The U.S. created the post-World War II international order that it no longer wants to lead today. But what replaces it is still unknown. So, in the meantime, small and medium-sized countries, so-called "middle powers," are scrambling to form new partnerships to insulate themselves from the inevitable instability that will arise from this transition.
 
We're seeing this play out daily now as leaders from South Africa, Brazil, Australia, Vietnam, Japan, and dozens of other countries crisscross the globe at a frenetic pace to build what many are describing as a new middle-power coalition.
 
But Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute, argued in a Foreign Policy column that it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for a coalition like this to succeed. Sarang joins Eric to explain why divergent north-south interests will be very hard to overcome.
 
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
 
 • Rapid global realignment among middle powers
 • Declining trust in U.S.-led institutions
 • BRICS and alternative power coalitions
 • China's growing Global South influence
 • Transactional diplomacy and diversification
 • What the next world order may look like
 
Show Notes:
 
 Foreign Policy: • 
Can Middle Powers Gel? • by Sarang Shidore
 The New York Times • : 
American Supremacy Is Over, and Something New Is Coming • by Sarang Shidore
 Politico: • 
Trump Is Demolishing the Global Order. Here's What Might Come Next. 
Join the Discussion:
 
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander 
 
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
 
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
 
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 
 
 • French: 
www.projetafriquechine.com • | 
@AfrikChine • Spanish: 
www.chinalasamericas.com • | 
@ChinaAmericas 
Join us on Patreon!
 Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Kenya's China Debt Restructuring Explained

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