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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/

The Breakdown

After hitting new all-time highs above $124,000, Bitcoin is showing its first signs of weakness. Traders are watching closely as a six-week rally cools off, with historical cycles suggesting a pullback could be near. We look at seasonal market patterns, analyst expectations for Q4, and the growing influence of Bitcoin treasury companies. Plus: the latest on China’s slowdown, altcoin season signals, and Gemini’s surprise IPO plans.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Correction Watch 2025: Bitcoin Pullback or Just Another Bull Run Pause?

On this week’s Long Read Sunday, NLW reads two essays exploring the intersection of Bitcoin, crypto, and politics. The first, Red Coin Blue Coin: The New Politics of Exposure, looks at the rise of politically branded Bitcoin treasuries—from Michael Saylor’s Strategy to Trump Media’s $2 billion BTC bet—and asks whether investors are buying the coin or the campaign. The second, A Regulator’s Radical Defense of Privacy by Byron Gilliam, covers SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s surprising embrace of cypherpunk ideals and her challenge to the financial surveillance status quo.

Sources: 

https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2025/08/01/red-coin-blue-coin-the-new-politics-of-exposure

https://blockworks.co/news/hester-peirce-defense-of-privacy

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Bitcoin, Politics, and Privacy

In this week’s Friday Five, NLW and Scott break down U.S. Treasury comments that rattled Bitcoin markets and offered a rare glimpse into America’s BTC holdings, then dive deep into Circle’s launch of a layer one blockchain—and why it’s sparking debate about the return of private chain walled gardens. The conversation explores how rate cuts could hit Circle’s revenue, potential ripple effects for Coinbase, and the shifting competition between crypto-native giants and fintech incumbents. Plus, frothy IPOs like Bullish, Ethereum ETF momentum, and what BlackRock’s $100B in crypto assets means for the market.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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The Five Most Important Stories in Crypto This Week

Bitcoin hits $124K and Ethereum surges close to a new record as altcoin mania returns. Meanwhile, institutional exchange Bullish rockets 200% in its IPO before plunging—raising questions about froth in the crypto cycle. NLW unpacks the wild price action, the macro forces driving the rally, and whether this bull run is overheating or just getting started.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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 Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8

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Crypto Froth Watch: Bullish IPO Pops 200% as Bitcoin and Ethereum Near Highs

Circle has announced Arc, its own EVM-compatible layer 1 blockchain powered by USDC, joining Stripe, Tether, and Robinhood in the corporate app chain trend. Critics warn it could fragment crypto and undermine decentralization, while supporters see potential for commercial finance use cases. Plus, a mixed CPI report keeps September rate cut hopes alive despite stubborn inflation, as political battles heat up over Fed appointments and proposed changes to U.S. jobs data reporting.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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 NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw

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Circle’s Corporate Chain Gamble

NLW breaks down the brewing Senate battle over the crypto market structure bill, with Elizabeth Warren signaling a shift toward acknowledging the need for legislation. We explore Democratic critiques of the Lummis proposal, the strategic implications for regulation, and how this fight could shape the industry’s next chapter. Plus, updates on the Genius Act’s impact on stablecoins, Stripe’s stealth blockchain project, and the red-hot Bullish IPO.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Democrats Gear Up for Fight Over Crypto Market Structure Bill

Bitcoin starts the week near all-time highs after a surprise Sunday night rally, even as rumors swirl of another China crypto ban. NLW unpacks why the reports are misleading, the real story of Beijing’s growing unease over Hong Kong’s new stablecoin regime, and what it could mean for capital controls. Plus, Harvard’s $116M Bitcoin buy signals a shift in institutional attitudes, and the White House crypto council sees a leadership change.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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It Wouldn't Be A Bitcoin Cycle Without a China Ban Rumor

A new long read argues that crypto’s biggest weakness is its inability to tell its own story—an issue magnified by the mainstream media’s fixation on outdated narratives. NLW agrees with much of the piece, but brings a unique perspective as the former architect of FTX’s high-profile marketing push, including stadium naming rights, Super Bowl ads, and celebrity campaigns. He explains the strategy behind those controversial moves, why they made sense at the time, and how FTX’s collapse wiped out the industry-wide narrative gains they might have brought. This is a candid look at the intersection of crypto PR, media coverage, and one of the most infamous brand-building plays in the industry’s history.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2025/07/29/crypto-has-a-comms-issue

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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What FTX Marketing Was Actually Trying to Accomplish

This week’s Friday Five is packed with U.S. government moves that signal crypto policy has shifted from rhetoric to action. NLW and Scott break down the SEC’s surprising guidance that puts liquid staking outside securities law, Hester Peirce’s call to enshrine financial privacy in the digital age, and the Tornado Cash verdict’s implications for developers. They also cover Trump’s executive orders opening 401(k)s to Bitcoin and other private assets, targeting bank discrimination, and appointing a crypto-friendly Fed governor—all part of a broader trend toward tangible pro-crypto measures.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In a closely watched case for crypto developers, a New York jury found Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm guilty of operating an unlicensed money transmitting business, while deadlocking on money laundering and sanctions charges. NLW unpacks the strange twists of the trial, the judge’s controversial rulings, and why the verdict sets a troubling precedent for DeFi.

Brought to you by:

Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. 

To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Hung Jury Delivers Mixed Verdict in Roman Storm Tornado Cash Trial

The conversation about whether bitcoin is a safe haven asset continues in the wake of Iranian missile strikes, which saw the price of BTC both surge and retrace in parallel with crude and gold. To help explain what’s going on, we feature comments from Ikigai Asset Management’s Travis Kling. 
 Also in today’s episode, we look at newly published priorities from the SEC around crypto including investor suitability, trading practices, and compliance program effectiveness. We also discuss former Bakkt CEO and now Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler’s appointment to the committee that oversees the CFTC. Is it a conflict of interest, something good for the crypto industry, or both?

Travis Kling on the BTC Bump and Safe Haven Status

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