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The Lawfare Institute

A weekly discussion of national security and foreign policy matters featuring Lawfare senior editors Scott R. Anderson, Quinta Jurecic, and Alan Rozenshtein.
 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rational Security

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Eugenia Lostri, and Tyler McBrien to break down the week's big national security news, including:

 • “The Long Road to Damascus.” Syria’s Assad regime collapsed suddenly last week in the face of a rebel offensive, ending thirteen years of revolution. What comes next, however, is anyone’s guess. How will this shift impact regional security? And how is the incoming Trump administration likely to respond?
 • “Pardonez-Moi.” President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to nominate unabashed loyalist Kash Patel—a person who has published a book listing political enemies he thinks should be prosecuted by the Justice Department—for the soon-to-be-vacant position of FBI Director has renewed concerns that the incoming Trump administration will use the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies. President Biden may have responded in part by pardoning his son Hunter for a wide range of conduct—and some are arguing he should extend similar protections to others the Trump administration may target. How real is the threat of such targeted prosecution? And are preemptive pardons the right protection?
 • “Not in Kansas Anymore.” The Fifth Circuit recently issued what may prove to be a landmark sanctions decision, holding that certain Tornado Cash automated cryptocurrency contractual mechanisms sanctioned by the Treasury Department do not constitute “property” within the meaning of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and thus cannot be sanctioned. It’s also one of the first appellate court decisions to apply the Supreme Court’s recent 
Loper Bright • decision, which ended 
Chevron • deference to agency interpretations of ambiguous statutes, in the national security context. How persuasive is the court’s opinion? And what impact will it have on U.S. policy in this area?

For object lessons, Ben endorsed(?) Kash Patel's three childrens' books as confirmation must-reads. Eugenia amped up everyones' holiday parties with a surefire recipe for maple cookies. Scott recommended the Lion's Tail as a surprisingly seasonal tiki-ish cocktail. And Tyler celebrated transition season with three recommended political profiles, specifically of Kash Patel, Ron Desantis, and Donald Trump circa 1997.

Also, Rational Security will be saying goodbye to 2024 in its traditional fashion: by discussing listener-submitted topics and object lessons! To submit yours, call in to (202) 743-5831 to leave a voicemail or email rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org. Just do it by COB on December 18!

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The “Tornado Kash” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower and Natalie Orpett and Lawfare Contributing Editor Michel Paradis to talk about the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:

 • “A Justice Delayed Still Has Justice on the Mind.” After weeks of waiting, New York state court judge Justice Juan Merchan has finally become the first judge to apply the Supreme Court’s 
Trump v. United States • immunity decision, holding that incoming President Donald Trump’s convictions under New York state law may stand and did not unduly rely on conduct for which he is immune. How persuasive is his ruling? And what can it tell us about the future of both Donald Trump’s criminal case and the Supreme Court’s immunity holding?
 • “A Break in the Case.” Tectonic shifts in Syrian politics over the past few weeks that has led, among other consequences, to the release of thousands of former prisoners, have brought back to the fore the case of Austin Tice, an American journalist who has been missing in Syria for more than a decade. Believed to have been held by the Assad regime before its collapse, some are concerned that he might have been injured or killed during Israeli airstrikes over the past several weeks. What does Tice’s case tell us about the challenges of wrongful detention cases like his? And what should we make of allegations that the Biden administration is not doing enough to bring him back?
 • “Gym, Tan, Low-flying Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.” The state of New Jersey has a new signature activity, as Americans and politicians of all stripes have been voicing concern over reports of mysterious drones of unknown origins operating in the state’s skies. What might explain this phenomenon? And what should we make of the reactions around it? 

For object lessons, Anna recommended “Intermezzo,” by Sally Rooney as a read over the holiday. Natalie Orpett endorsed Washington, D.C.’s Eastern Market as a worthwhile visit for holiday shopping, and Scott doubled down with another local recommendation of Middleburg, VA, as a holiday wonderland not to be missed. And Michel wrapped things up with a final endorsement of Weike Wang’s dryly comedic book “Rental House,” for those needing to commiserate over managing family relations over the holiday.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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The “Trashed on Trash Mountain” Edition

For the podcast’s annual end-of-year episode, Scott sat down with co-hosts emeritus Alan Rozenshtein and Quinta Jurecic to talk over listener-submitted topics and object lessons, including:

 • How will the collapse of the Assad regime impact the region? And can the United States help create a secular, democratic Syria?
 • How is the pending TikTok ban even enforceable (if it is)?
 • What national security story from 2024 deserved more attention?
 • Won’t the Fifth Circuit’s recent Tornado Cash opinion simply lead the Treasury Department to sanction the cryptocurrency Ethereum as a whole?
 • What are the most underrated threats to U.S. national security in the last half of this decade?
 • What will be the Trump administration’s first major national security misstep?
 • How worried should the United States be about the BRIC countries’ recent discussions of forming their own reserve currency?

For object lessons, Trevor recommended insightful indie video games for our three hosts based on their interests: “Bury Me, My Love” for Scott; “We. The Revolution” for Alan; and “Not for Broadcast” for Quinta. Thomas endorsed the podcast and associated media company “Popular Front” on uncovered conflict issues. Keith threw his support behind the podcast “It Did Happen Here” about Portland’s anti-racist skinhead movement. Connor recommended the books “The Queen of Cuba,” by Peter Lapp, and “The President’s Book of Secrets,” by Lawfare alum David Priess, as well as the docuseries “FBI True.” Keenan followed up with another book recommendation, Daniel Immewahr’s “How to Hide an Empire.” And Liz endorsed Gayle Tzemach Lemmon’s “Ashley’s War,” about women who deployed to Afghanistan as cultural support teams for special operations units.

And that’s it for 2024! But don’t worry, Rational Security and the whole Lawfare team will be back with you in the new year to help make sense of what’s to come in national security in 2025—now back at our old release day and time, at midday on Wednesdays (D.C.-time) every week!

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The “Out of the Twenty-Twenty-Fourno, Into the Fire” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:

 • “Mike Drop (Almost).” While we are still two weeks away from having a new president, the 119th Congress is already underway. But there are signs of tension in the Republican majority controlling both chambers, with House Republicans (under pressure from former President Trump and adviser Elon Musk) having killed a leadership-negotiated compromise funding bill at the end of the last Congress and Speaker Mike Johnson just barely securing reelection by a single vote after some last minute wrangling within the Republican caucus. What do these recent events tell us about what we should expect over the next year?
 • “Will Be Mild.” The Jan. 6 that passed earlier this week went very differently than the one four years ago, with Congress peacefully recognizing former President Trump’s election back to the White House. How are the legacies of the Jan. 6 insurrection of 2021 winding to a close in 2025? And which seem likely to persist?
 • “Missed Connections.” Finland received an unwelcome Christmas present this year, after a major undersea telecommunications cable was damaged by the anchor of a suspected Russian shadow ship, in an act some believe was deliberate. And Taiwan rang in the New Year in similar fashion, with a major undersea cable getting damaged by a China-associated vessel. What is behind this set of attacks? And what tools do the affected states have to defend themselves?

In object lessons, Molly shared an excellent holiday tradition to keep in your back pocket for next year and all the years to come: a family time capsule. Scott shared his newly perfected cocktail recipe, a concoction he is calling The Little Palermo™ (see below). And Kevin went a bit darker with his recommendation of “End Times,” by Peter Turchin.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

The Little Palermo™ by Scott R. Anderson

1 oz. brandy

1 oz. cold brew concentrate

3/4 oz. Mr. Black coffee liqueur

3/4 oz. Averna

1/4 oz. rich demerara syrup

2 dashes chicory bitters

Shake vigorously over ice, double strain into a glass, express lemon oil over the top.

 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The “No Taxation Without Sledding Representation” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Roger Parloff, Renée DiResta, and Tyler McBrien to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

 • “The Art of the Heel.” As President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration nears, the various legal cases against him are gradually winding down to their inevitable end. But Trump is not letting them go quietly: instead, he has fought certain final steps tooth and nail, ranging from the (mostly meaningless) sentencing in his New York case to the final release of the report that Special Counsel Jack Smith is obligated to write. How do these various threads seem like they will resolve? And what will the legacy be for presidential accountability?
 • “Make Meta MAGA Again.” The recent election appears to be triggering a wave of changes in corporate America, as a number of leading tech companies like Meta have begun quite publicly breaking down disinformation protections, paring back DEI programs, and eliminating offices and personnel that have long peeved conservatives. And even CEOs who have not implemented such changes have seemed eager to meet with Trump at his home in Mar-a-Lago. How much of this shift is smoke and how much is fire? And what might it mean in the long term?
 • “Embracing a Growth Mindset.” President-elect Trump sent shivers through the international community last week when he refused to rule out the possibility of using economic coercion or even military force to expand U.S. territorial control, specifically over Greenland and the Panama Canal, two allied foreign territories that he has previously identified as having a direct bearing on U.S. national interests. How realistic are his threats? And what are the ramifications likely to be?

In object lessons, Tyler shared why there seem to be so many Australians in Brooklyn, as reported in “Bogans in Brooklyn,” from The Baffler (say that three times fast). Roger recommended “V13: Chronicle of a Trial” by Emmanuel Carrère, for coverage of a different trial than the ones he's been used to. Scott, in a stubborn refusal to admit that the holidays are over, was jolly about the Netflix movie “That Christmas.” And Renée reflected on AI’s potential to help people reach consensus through democratic deliberation and supernotes.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The “Working the Refs” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues and hosts emeriti Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Alan Rozenshtein to talk through the week’s big—and we mean BIG—national security news, including:

 • “Executive Disorder.” America’s once-and-future President Donald Trump hit the ground running, issuing dozens of executive actions on his first afternoon in office, from once again withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement to pardoning or commuting the sentences for almost everyone involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection. But which actions are important and which are just for the show? And what do they tell us about what to expect from a second Trump presidency?
 • “Swiping Up on Consistency.” The Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the law banning TikTok triggered an unexpected crisis last week, as TikTok users who suddenly realized the platform was in danger apparently mounted a pressure campaign against elected officials that led several, including President Biden, to waffle on the desirability of the ban. But incoming President Donald Trump, who once tried to ban TikTok himself, jumped in with an order temporarily delaying the ban—a move that TikTok thanked him for by name in a notice on the platform after service was restored. What explains the sudden about-face among supporters of the TikTok ban?
 • “Cease and Assist.” After more than a year of brutal hostilities, the parties have finally agreed to a ceasefire in the conflict over Gaza. But as Israeli hostages are gradually let free, humanitarian assistance resumes, and displaced Gazans return to their devastated neighborhoods, real questions remain. Is this just a pause or an end to the conflict? And what comes next in Gaza either way? 

In object lessons, Ben encouraged listeners to listen to Merrick Garland’s farewell speech to the Justice Department, regardless of how you feel about the former attorney general. Quinta embraced a sense of escapism with her praise of the Wallace & Gromit movies, particularly the newest addition to the franchise, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. And Scott—wondering what will become of us now—mustered up his best inner disgruntled, middle-aged Millennial voice to recommend Michael Longfellow’s plea to not ban TikTok from SNL’s Weekend Update.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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“The Next First Day of the Rest of Our Lives” Edition

This week, Scott was joined by his colleagues Kevin and Eugenia—in what is sadly her last episode before leaving Lawfare—as well as special guest Peter Harrell for a deep dive into the week’s national security news, including:

 • “Tariff or Takeoff.” The Trump administration got into what is arguably its first major international spat this week when Colombia’s refusal to accept a U.S. military flight returning migrants to that country led President Trump to threaten an array of punitive measures, from visa cut-offs to sanctions and tariffs. After Colombian President Gustavo Petro backed down, the White House was quick to claim victory. But how sustainable is Trump’s strategy? And is it really the route to restoring respect for the United States that the White House claims it is?
 • “Talk to Me When They Get To ‘Project: The Fifth Element.’” Last week, the Trump administration announced Project Stargate—an initiative not to revive ‘90s sci-fi classics, but to instead make a massive investment in the U.S. development of artificial intelligence and related technologies. But a few days later, an announcement by Chinese AI platform DeepSeek indicating it had reached comparable results at a lower cost triggered a sudden decline in the value of AI-related stocks. What do these developments tell us about the competitive dynamics surrounding AI? And how should the United States be navigating them?
 • “A Friend in Need is a Friend Shit Out of Luck.” The Trump administration has issued an across-the-board freeze of U.S. foreign assistance programs for 90 days as it reviews them for consistency with the administration’s vision of “America First” foreign policy. But what ramifications will this pause really have for U.S. foreign policy and beyond?

For object lessons, Kevin plugged the Seattle University School of Law’s Technology, Innovation Law, and Ethics Program. Eugenia got back to her roots in recommending the indie RPG video game Wildermyth, which follows a troupe of fantasy heroes from modest origins through their sunset years. Scott out-nerded Eugenia by recommending a pen-and-paper indie RPG, the physically gorgeous Thousand Year Old Vampire. And Peter kept it professional by recommending Arthur Herman’s book “Freedom’s Forge” as a case study on U.S. industrial policy that may have lessons for our current historical moment.

Use promo code RATIONALSECURITY at the link below to get an exclusive 60% off an Incogni annual plan:

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To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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The “Don’t Cry for Me, Lawfare” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Molly Reynolds, and Anna Bower to talk through another big week of national security news, including:

 • “Checked Out and Off Balance.” Over its first two weeks in office, the Trump administration has pushed against the traditional limits of congressional authority by unlawfully impounding funds, terminating federal employees contrary to statute, and seeking to dismantle at least one federal agency contrary to statute. But the Republican-controlled Congress has thus far remained almost entirely complacent, if not supportive of the president’s actions. How far will the Trump administration be able to go? And what will the long-term consequences be for the separation of powers?
 • “Jus Soli? Jus Kidding.’” As one of his first acts after returning to the White House, Donald Trump issued an executive order refusing to recognize birthright citizenship in the United States for anyone whose parents are not citizens or lawful permanent residents. All told, it seems like a clear effort to trigger a review of the traditional understanding of the 14th Amendment as implementing 
jus soli • , meaning citizenship based on place of birth. But how likely is it to work?
 • “Fo’ Drizz(coll).” The Trump administration’s promised campaign of retribution has hit the Justice Department, where senior supervisors have been reassigned and prosecutors involved in the Jan. 6 investigations have been terminated, perhaps unlawfully. But now efforts to gather the names of FBI agents involved in those same investigations for presumed retribution are facing serious pushback, including from the Bureau’s Acting Director Brian Driscoll (known as “the Drizz”). How hard can the FBI and Justice Department push back? And where are the legal limits on what the Trump administration can do?

In object lessons, Molly chose not to gamble and stayed on-brand with her recommendation of local-NPR-affiliate podcast Scratch & Win. Ben asked himself the question that many at the FBI are asking themselves these days: “WWDD?” Scott followed the sentiment with an endorsement of “Civil servants shouldn’t quit their jobs,” by Matthew Yglesias. And Anna insisted that her reverence of the TV show Severance has absolutely nothing—really, nothing—to do with belly buttons.

We value your feedback! Help us improve by sharing your thoughts at lawfaremedia.org/survey. Your input ensures that we deliver what matters most to you. Thank you for your support—and, as always, for listening!

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

Use promo code RATIONALSECURITY at the link below to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan:

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The "Law and Order: Executive Victims Unit" Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare teammates Tyler McBrien and Nastya Lapatina and Lawfare friend Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:

 • “Mi Gaza Es Su Gaza.” President Donald Trump shocked the world last week when, in a joint press briefing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he announced plans for the United States to “own” Gaza, take responsibility for reconstructing it, and ultimately renovate it into a “Riviera” on the Eastern Mediterranean—one, he later made clear, that Palestinians would no longer be allowed to live in. What of this plan is serious and what is bluster? And what impact will it have on the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the delicate ceasefire that Trump’s emissary worked so hard to secure just weeks ago in Gaza?
 • “Bullets for Bauxite.” President Trump recently reiterated his desire for a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine, a topic on which senior Trump administration and Ukrainian officials will be talking soon. But peace will come at a price—in this case, a deal guaranteeing U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, among other concessions. Is Trump’s timeline realistic? And how is his administration’s “America First” tack likely to impact the trajectory of the conflict?
 • “Quid Pro Whoa.” Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove took the exceptional step this week of directing the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York to dismiss corruption charges—arising from alleged improper contributions and relationships with foreign government officials, including from Turkey—against New York Mayor Eric Adams so that Adams could focus his energy combating high crime and unlawful immigration. What should we make of such a clear quid pro quo? And what might it mean for the Justice Department moving forward?

For object lessons, Tyler and Nastya plugged Lawfare's next big long-form audio documentary series, which they co-host and is set to debut later this month: Escalation, a podcast about the war in Ukraine. Scott recommended an incredibly touching piece in the New York Times about faith, parenthood, and reconciling the two, entitled "How My Dad Reconciled His God with His Gay Son," by Timothy White. And in honor of the man's Super Bowl victory, Joel shared one of his favorite quotes from Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, which has particular resonance with the peacebuilding community he works in: "I had a purpose before anybody had an opinion."

We value your feedback! Help us improve by sharing your thoughts at lawfaremedia.org/survey. Your input ensures that we deliver what matters most to you. Thank you for your support—and, as always, for listening!

Use promo code RATIONALSECURITY at the link below to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan:

https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity

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“The General Mattis of the NFL” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Tyler McBrien and Roger Parloff, as well as special guest Claire Meynial, U.S. correspondent for Le Point, to talk over the week's big national security news, including:

 • “Make Europe Aghast Again.” Vice President J.D. Vance stunned the Munich Security Conference last week with remarks that criticized European allies for suppressing far-right and anti-immigration voices while playing down threats from China and Russia. Combined with the Trump administration’s past hostility to Transatlantic relationships, many are taking Vance’s as a sign of a downgrade in the U.S.-Europe relationship. But is this overstating things? And how far can the Trump administration adjust the relationship on its own, even if it wanted to?
 • “I Would Do Anything for Bove, but I Won’t Do That.” (Credit to Robert Anderson, via Mike Stern.) The resignation of seven Justice Department attorneys over their refusal to move to dismiss charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams at the direction of acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove has brought national attention to the Trump administration’s apparent intent to use its discretion over criminal prosecution as a policy tool to advance its immigration and potentially other agendas. But what do these recent events tell us about the potential for—and limits on—such a strategy? 
 • “Animus Instinct.” The legal challenge to President Trump’s executive order banning transgender individuals from military service and halting gender-affirming care finally had a hearing in federal court this week. And in a barnburner, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes raked the Justice Department over the coals, querying whether the ban was the result of “animus.” But how big a difference will her line of inquiry make in the end? Is there any realistic chance the courts will intervene?

For object lessons, Roger recommended a visit to the Holocaust Museum as an opportunity for a sober reflection. Tyler passed along Noah Schachtman's portrait of the players in the Eric Adams resignation scandal in Vanity Fair. Scott passed along his new favorite vegetarian pasta recipe, pasta al sugo finto. And Claire discussed some of her work on abortion rights in advance of International Women's Day on March 8, including research into the Comstock Act. 

We value your feedback! Help us improve by sharing your thoughts at lawfaremedia.org/survey. Your input ensures that we deliver what matters most to you. Thank you for your support—and, as always, for listening!

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

Use promo code RATIONALSECURITY at the link below to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan:

https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity

 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The “These Are the Days that Never End’ Edition

We have a special treat for you in the Rational Security feed. Last week, Susan and Ben shared an Object Lesson with you: the podcast The Report, a deep dive narrative look at the contents of the Mueller investigation. We've released the first episode, here for you now on this feed. For future episodes, subscribe to The Report on whatever podcast distribution service you use.
 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Report: Part I: Active Measures

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