The 2025 Macro Playbook: Central Banks, Crypto & Chaos ft. Andreas Steno Larsen from Real Vision Pro & Steno Research

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Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen joins Raoul Pal to explore how central banks and governments are now openly coordinating to manage debt and engineer economic cycles, why this effectively removes left-tail risk from markets, and how investors can position themselves to profit from the long-term macro implications.

From inflation, crypto, and AI-driven deflation to the inevitability of currency debasement, Raoul and Andreas lay out a blueprint of what markets could look like in the future. Recorded on April 8, 2025.

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Timestamps: 00:00 SuperAI Singapore 2025 01:17 Intro 02:58 Andreas Steno’s career path 04:49 FX as macro playground 07:02 Macro lessons from QE 08:48 QE vs bond yields 10:27 Central banks and asset impact 11:39 Launching Steno Research 12:54 Governments + central banks = one 14:12 SVB proves full backstop 16:04 Fed needs lower yields 18:36 Forcing banks to buy bonds 20:19 Fed delay on QE 21:38 Everyone wants debasement 22:55 Hedge funds fund the deficit 24:14 QT is basically over 25:34 China dumping Treasuries? 26:48 U.S. follows Japan’s path 28:32 GDP vs debt trap 29:51 AI boosts productivity 31:41 Human value vs AI 32:51 How to tax AI? 34:11 Tariffs are permanent 36:07 Consumption tax over income tax 37:31 Inflation fears overstated 38:57 AI makes services cheaper 40:13 Tariffs didn’t cause CPI spike 42:08 Q1 slowdown is optical 44:01 Tariffs distort the cycle 45:51 No return of factory jobs 47:03 Robots + UBI future 49:00 Tariffs tax the middle class 50:26 No EU decoupling 52:18 European tech opportunity 53:39 Will EU stimulate? 55:31 China’s tariff strategy 57:18 No yuan deval, no selling 59:07 Bonds up, commodities down 1:00:57 Crypto = macro asset 1:03:33 SVB changed the game 1:06:06 Trading fund vs personal 1:08:43 System vs conviction 1:10:33 Market bottom window 1:12:18 Final thoughts + stock picks

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