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Cato Institute

Power Problems is a bi-weekly podcast from the Cato Institute. Host John Glaser offers a skeptical take on U.S. foreign policy, and discusses today’s big questions in international security with distinguished guests from across the political spectrum. Podcast Hashtag: #FPPowerProblems.
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Power Problems

Joshua Landis, professor of Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the recent rebel advances in Syria, the causes and conditions that paved the way for the fall of the Assad regime, the many mistakes of US policy since the start of the civil war, and the regional politics wrapped up in Syria’s future. 

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The Fall of Assad & Syria's Uncertain Future

Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, discusses how the international politics of the Ukraine war have changed since Trump’s election win, how to move towards negotiations to end the war, and the various issues - from territory to NATO membership - to be resolved in any peace deal. 

Show Notes

Anatol Lieven, “Three Conditions for a US-Backed Peace Agreement in Ukraine,” UnHerd, November 30, 2024.

Anatol Lieven, George Beebe, “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine,” Quincy Paper #13, February 16, 2024.

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Negotiating Peace in Ukraine

Julia Gledhill, Research Associate for the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center, discusses the “permanent war economy” and ongoing efforts to increase military spending. She also talks about perverse incentives for defense contractors, the myth that military spending is properly construed as a jobs program, and the lack of strategic thinking in policy debates on how to confront China, among other issues. 

Show Notes

 • Julia Gledhill, “
The Truth about the Permanent War Economy, • ” Stimson Center Issue Brief, December 2, 2024.

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Perverse Incentives in the Permanent War Economy

Sam Bresnick, Research Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, discusses artificial intelligence in the context of the US-China relationship. He explains how AI will be used by states in coming years and compares different obstacles and advantages that both the US and China have in their competition to develop AI and its various applications. Among other topics, he also discusses diplomatic pathways for the US and China to avoid dangerous AI scenarios. 

Show Notes

Sam Bresnick, “The Obstacles to China’s AI Power,” Foreign Affairs, December 31, 2024

Sam Bresnick, et al., “Which Ties Will Bind?” CSET Issue Brief, February 2024

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The AI Competition with China

Oona Hathaway, professor of international law at Yale University, addresses President Trump’s plans to expand US territory into Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Canada. She discusses international law, the causes of the decline in interstate war, the difference between norms and laws, the problem of enforcement, tensions between norms against conquest and the need for a negotiated peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, among other topics. 

Show Notes

 • Oona A. Hathaway, Scott J. Shapiro, 
The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World • , Simon & Schuster, 2017.

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Trump, Conquest, & the Laws of War

Miranda Priebe, senior political scientist at RAND, discusses US strategy towards Europe and Asia and how to manage relations with Russia and China. She talks about changes to US posture towards Europe and Russia following the Ukraine war, NATO strategy, how to manage the Russia-China relationship, and potential changes to US posture in Asia, particularly towards Taiwan. She also touches upon the ‘isolationist’ label, the complicated politics of restraint, and how to put diplomacy at the forefront of US foreign policy, among other topics. 

Show Notes

 • Miranda Priebe, Jasen Castillo, “
Here’s why Trump’s foreign policy is hard to pin down • ,” MSNBC.com, December 28, 2024.
 • Miranda Priebe, John Schuessler, Bryan Rooney, Jasen Castillo; “
Competing Visions of Restraint • .” 
International Security • 2024; 49 (2): 135–169.
 • Miranda Priebe and Sam Charap, :”
Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That’s the Wrong Question • .” 
The Washington Quarterly • , 47(3), 143–159.
 • Miranda Priebe, et al. “
Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan • .” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023.
 • Miranda Priebe and Sam Charan, “
Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War • .” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024.

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Reconsidering US Strategy in Europe & Asia

Jennifer Lind, Associate Professor at Dartmouth College, argues that China’s rise now means the world is back to a bipolar balance of power. She provides insight into how U.S. foreign policy should manage this new reality and discusses why polarity is important, how to measure the balance of power, how stable unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems are, the major points of conflict between the US and China, and what to do about Taiwan, among other topics. 

Show Notes

 • Jennifer Lind, “
Back to Bipolarity: How China's Rise Transformed the Balance of Power • ,” 
International Security • 2024; 49 (2): 7–55.

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The Return of Bipolarity

Barry Posen, professor of political science at MIT, argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 qualifies as a preventive war and was motivated in part to thwart U.S.-led efforts to expand NATO in Europe. He responds to detractors from this view and also discusses the partial political responsibility of U.S. leaders, the difference between explaining the war and justifying it, the lack of strategic empathy in U.S. foreign policy, how best to negotiate the end of the war, and whether the U.S. is making a similar mistake in incentivizing preventive war logic in Beijing with respect to Taiwan.

Show Notes

 • Barry R. Posen, “
Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine • ,” 
International Security • 2025; 49 (3): 7–49.

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Strategic Empathy & the Roots of the Ukraine War

T.V. Paul, professor of international relations at McGill University, talks about his recent book Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi. Paul discusses India’s international status, the push for permanent membership on the UN Security Council, India’s military capabilities and “reactive grand strategy,” India’s complex relations with Russia and China, how some of India’s domestic problems hamper its international ambitions, and strategic management of the U.S.-Indian relationship, among other topics. 

Show Notes

 • T.V. Paul, 
Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi • , (Oxford University Press, 2024). 

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India’s Quest for Major Power Status

The Stimson Center’s Christopher Preble and Geoff Wilson argue that nuclear weapons modernization programs are wasteful boondoggles that undermine deterrence and stability while serving as a give-away to parochial interests. They discuss a “deterrence first” posture on nuclear weapons, perverse incentives in the bureaucracy, profligate waste and inefficiency, the risks of nuclear escalation, the consequences of eroding nuclear deterrence, and threat inflation on China, among other issues. 

Show Notes

 • Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “
Gambling on Armageddon: How US Nuclear Policies are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War • ,” Stimson Center Report, February 19, 2025.

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Why America Needs to Change Its Nuclear Weapons Posture

Common but unsound conceptions of credibility and reputation in international politics have persistently promoted unnecessary militarism and prevented the United States from shedding even unnecessary security commitments abroad. Boston College assistant professor Joshua Byun explains the concepts of reputation and credibility in international politics and uses survey data to undermine the conventional wisdom that a reputation for resolve is necessary for a country’s credibility. He also discusses the implications of situational resolve and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies’ opinions of US credibility.

 

Show Notes

Joshua Byun bio • D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, 
“U.S. Alliance Credibility after the 2021 Afghanistan Withdrawal,” • 
Contemporary Security Policy • Blog, September 6, 2023.
 • Joshua Byun and Do Young Lee, 
“The Case against Nuclear Sharing in East Asia,” The Washington Quarterly • 44, no. 4 (Winter 2021): 67-87.
 • D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, 
“Remember Kabul? Reputation, Strategic Contexts, and American Credibility after the Afghanistan Withdrawal,” • 
Contemporary Security Policy • (September 5, 2023).

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"Credibility" Is Not What You Think It Is

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