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Bloomberg


Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.


Odd Lots

Trump has announced that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is going to be his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell. The responses to the news are split among some interesting lines. People like Neil Dutta have been highly critical, while at the same time, the pick has earned praise from Jason Furman, who was the Chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. So who is Kevin Warsh? And why is this pick particularly controversial? On this episode, we talk with Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, who walks us through Warsh's history of commenting on and executing monetary policy. He argues that in addition to having gotten some big calls wrong (particularly in the years surrounding the GFC), Warsh has a history of aligning his policy views with partisan consideration. We also talk about the challenges Warsh will have establishing credibility within the FOMC, as well as challenges that may arise the next time the Fed has to step in during a period of crisis.
 
Read more:
Fed’s Musalem Says It Would Be ‘Unadvisable’ to Lower Rates
Carney, Macklem Congratulate Warsh on Federal Reserve Nomination
 
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Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on the Risks of Kevin Warsh

The big story this year is the surge in metals. And it's really all metals. The ultimate industrial metal, copper, has been on a massive tear, but so has gold, which has very few industrial uses. And then, of course, silver has seen a blistering rally, in part due to massive buying in China. On this episode, we bring back the man who saw this coming years ago, Carlyle partner Jeff Currie. Prior to joining Carlyle, Currie was a top commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs, and has been calling for the emergence of a brand new supercycle for years now. In this episode, he explains the drivers of this supercycle, and why he thinks we're in the very early days of what will be a multi-year run.
 
Read more:
Gold Retreats in Sudden Selloff After Breaking Through $5,500
China’s Metals Mania Sends Copper Soaring Past $14,500 a Ton
 
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Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The Supercycle Has Years to Run

The Trump administration says it wants to kick start private investment in Venezuela now that it's captured Maduro. And Ukraine is eventually going to need a massive rebuild. But what is it like for a big multinational to actually operate in these types of places? In this episode, we speak with Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen, the cofounders of agricultural consultancy AgrisAcademy and former long-time Cargill employees. Jeff previously ran Cargill's Venezuelan business and Mike was the company's first employee in another geopolitical hotspot: Ukraine. We talk about the challenges they faced in these two locations, including dollar shortages, corruption, and security threats, and their sometimes creative solutions to them.

Read more:
Venezuela Leader Pressed From All Sides Over Oil Industry Plans
Ukraine Says It Attacked Small Oil Refinery in Southern Russia
 
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What It's Like to Do Big Ag Business in Venezuela and Ukraine

One of the mega-themes of the economy is that the big keep getting bigger. You see it in technology, where the megacap software companies are outperforming their smaller peers. And you see it in finance, where the world's biggest banks keep growing their share within the industry. Across multiple fields, there are clear advantages to size and scale that keep accruing. But what does it take to get to the very top, and what are the real advantages to size and scale? PNC Financial is one of the biggest banks in the country, though not quite as big as names like JPMorgan or Bank of America. So what does it take to grow in such a mature industry? And what kind of advantages accrue to the large players? On this episode, we talk to CEO Bill Demchak in a wide ranging conversation about the state of the industry. He explains why they're still building physical bank branches, why it's not a good time to make acquisitions, and how one bank stands out from another. We also talk about the changing regulatory environment, and what the firm is seeing right now in terms of useful applications of generative AI.

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What It Takes to Build One of the World's Biggest Banks

We talk all the time about private credit. And we increasingly talk about it from the perspective of the AI buildout, and how all of these datacenters are being financed. But why did the space get so big in the first place, and what does its history indicate for the future of the asset class? On this episode, we speak with Michael Zawadzki, the Global CIO for Blackstone Credit and Insurance. Michael’s been with the firm since 2006, and built its private credit from the ground up. He talks about what it took to succeed in the space, the advantages that accrue to large players, and why private credit has played such an important role in financing AI infrastructure.
 
Read more:
Private Credit Firms Push New Funds in Bid to Tap Retiree Money
BlackRock’s HPS Makes Its First Asia Investment After Merger
 
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Blackstone's Michael Zawadzki on How Private Credit Got so Big

Earlier this week, we saw something unusual happen in markets. The S&P 500 fell 2%, US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar simultaneously declined. This trifecta of market moves has rekindled talk of the "Sell America" trade as investors worry about the Trump administrations threats to take over Greenland. At the same time, Japanese bonds sold off after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election. So, how concerned should investors be about these latest developments? Is the "Sell America" trade really back? Or are we seeing a global rise in long bond yields? In this episode, we talk with Pimco CEO Emmanuel Roman about how he’s reading the moves. We also discuss Pimco's investment in data center debt, how the company is using AI internally, and why he doesn't 'get' gold.
 
Read more:
Why Investors Are Worried About Japan’s Bond Market
How Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Is Fueling Record Prices
 
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Pimco CEO Manny Roman on Japanese Bonds and the Sell America Trade

In the AI industry, there's always a hot new thing. First it was ChatGPT. Then it was the image generators. There was the DeepSeek moment. In the latter half of last year, everyone was excited about how good Google's Gemini was. In January 2026, the new hot thing everyone is talking about is Claude Code. But of course, the AI models have been able to generate lines of code for a long time now. So what is it about Claude Code that has people so excited? Why is it that people are asking: "Is this AGI?" On this episode, we speak with Noah Brier, the co-founder of Alpehic, a consultancy firm that helps large organizations implement AI technology. Noah has been using the Large Language Models for longer than just about anyone, since even before ChatGPT existed. He explains to us the evolution of AI-assisted coding, what Claude Code actually is, and why it is that traditional software firms have been getting destroyed in the stock market lately.
 
Read more:
Meta Begins Job Cuts as It Shifts From Metaverse to AI Devices
AI Coding Startup Replit Nears Funding at $9 Billion Valuation
 
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Why the Tech World Is Going Crazy for Claude Code

One of the extraordinary elements of the civil unrest taking place in Iran is that it's almost impossible to know what's going on. There's a virtually complete news blackout, in part because of the government shutting down the internet. What this means in practice right now is that someone on the outside can't even know for sure whether the Iranian stock market has been trading lately, or whether it's been halted. And then of course there are bigger questions about the scale of the civil unrest and the government's response to it. On this episode of Lots More, we check in with recurring guest Maciej Wojtal, the founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, one of the few international firms to have direct exposure to Iranian stocks. We talk about what he's been able to ascertain about the protests, why they're taking place, Iran's ongoing financial crisis, and why this round of civil unrest is different from before.

READ MORE: How Iran Sanctions and a Currency Crash Triggered Mass Protests

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Lots More on the Protests and Financial Crisis in Iran

One thing we can all agree on is that demand for energy, and in particular electricity, is growing by leaps and bounds. But past that, there is going to be a debate about who is best positioned, and who will really make money from this trend. Will it be companies digging up raw commodities? Will it be equipment companies? Will it be pipelines? Will it be utilities? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Tyler Rosenlicht, a Senior Vice President Cohen & Steers. He is a portfolio manager for Global Listed Infrastructure and the firm's head of Natural Resource Equities. We talk about the general ideas behind infrastructure investing, how it works, how it's changed, and how he thinks about the ongoing boom in energy demand.
 
Read more:
JPMorgan, Brookfield See Deals Revival for Clean Energy Assets
Mideast Energy Fund Plans PE Push to Drive Wave of Deals
 
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How to Make Money From the Booming Demand for Energy

Even before Trump's victory in 2024, it was becoming clear that the Fed would come under political pressure like never before. The first year of the new administration bore that out. Not only had Fed Chairman Jerome Powell come under tremendous pressure over interest rate policy and the cost of office renovations, Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Cook case will soon be argued in front of the Supreme Court, but now we have another earthquake. On Sunday night, the news broke that Powell had been served with a subpoena from the DOJ, raising the potential for criminal charges. Powell himself, who has assiduously tried to avoid the controversy, blasted the move as a form of revenge for the administration's displeasure with his interest rate policy. So where does this leave us now? On this episode, we speak with Lev Menand, a professor at Columbia Law School at the author of the Fed Unbound. He explains where things sit not with Fed independence, and why the DOJ's role here takes the fight to a whole new level.
 
Read more:
Dollar Drops Most in Three Weeks as Fed Gets Subpoenas
‘Sell America’ Trade Is Revived by Trump’s Latest Fed Attack
 
Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
 
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The Fight Over Fed Independence Just Got Taken To a Whole New Level

When the GameStop and Robinhood story exploded at the end of January, suddenly everyone took an interest in market structure and things like payment for order flow, as well as the role that high-frequency trading shops play in enabling free retail trading. This, of course, gave rise to lots of conspiracy theories about ways retail traders are taken advantage of. On the new Odd Lots, we speak with Doug Cifu, the CEO of Virtu, which is one of the largest HFT shops in the country, to get his perspective on how this part of the market really works.

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Virtu CEO Doug Cifu Explains Payment for Order Flow and the Future of HFT

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