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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before.
 
But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics.
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound engineer: James Beard
Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is every card shuffle unique?

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early? 

No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.

To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts. 

From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Sue Maillot

Bonus podcast: Norman Numbers

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave?

Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year.

“This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote.

We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness.

To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Krista Beighton
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel.

Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question.

“How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered.

To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. 

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much of the world isn’t owned by anyone?

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid. 

The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department. 

This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths. 

But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more. 

If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. 

This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world?

How much of all the money does Elon Musk have?

We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much of all the money in the world does Elon Musk have?

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?

When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m.

As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver.

But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like this? BBC economics editor Faisal Islam explains why he thinks not.
 
Image: Illustration of paper notes with a sterling pound symbol falling. Credit: Jamie Lawton/Getty Images

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound engineer: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Would you take £50,000 or a 50/50 chance of £1m?

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’.

But what does the data tell us?

Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world.
 
That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes.

If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk 
 
Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Andrew Garratt

Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.

(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).

(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)

(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford
Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’
Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol

Returning Special Guest appearance:

Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more?

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. 
 
The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. 
 
From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, chief medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.

If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?

Do two large glasses of wine triple your risk of mouth cancer, as claimed on a health leaflet spotted by a sceptical listener? Tim Harford examines the difficulties of extracting smoking from the equation. Surprising as this may seem, one of the world's best tennis players of all time, Roger Federer, is also the worst ranked player on one scale. The scoring system makes it possible to lose a match despite winning more points, and Federer has lost the highest percentage of these types of games. Tim speaks to sports number-cruncher Ryan Rodenberg about why this might be the case. 
This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

WS MoreOrLess: Alcohol risk

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