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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4

More or Less: Behind the Stats

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places. 
A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1-in-216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly”. 
This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe has existed. 
Is the claim true? Dr Jules Kajtar, a physical oceanographer from the National Oceanography Centre, takes a look at the statistics. 
We heard about this story because a listener spotted it and emailed the team. Get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think we should look at. moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

How weird was the Med Sea heatwave?

On Friday 1st August the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put out their job report data for August. It included revisions to their estimates for the jobs created in May and June which stated there were 258,000 fewer jobs than they had previously estimated.
This news was not received well by the White House. President Trump fired the head of the bureau, Erika McEntarfer, calling the numbers ‘phony, rigged, a scam’ and spreading conspiracy theories that McEntarfer had fudged the data. 
We speak to economist Michael Strain from the American Enterprise Institute, to understand why the revisions happened and the potential consequences of throwing doubt on one of the US’s most important statistical agencies.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Sam Bonham

Why it matters that Trump fired data chief

In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US. 
 
Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You’d expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven’t. 
 
How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states which have total bans have zero abortions per year?
 
 
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge
Studio Manager: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon, Bridget Harney.

Are abortion numbers rising in the US?

We’re living through boom-times for Artificial Intelligence, with more and more of us using AI assistants like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Grok and Copilot to do basic research and writing tasks. 

But what is the environmental impact of these technologies? 

Many listeners have got in touch with More or Less to ask us to investigate various claims about the energy and water use of AI.

One claim in particular has caught your attention - the idea that the equivalent of a small bottle of drinking water is consumed by computer processors every time you ask an AI a question, or get it to write a simple email. 

So, where does that claim come from, and is it true?

Reporter: Paul Connolly
Producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Donald McDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does a single AI query use a bottle of water?

In the midst of the television coverage of Soccer Aid, a celebrity soccer match organised by Unicef, the audience was told that “one in six children around the world are currently living through war”. 

Listener Isla got in touch with More or Less to ask whether the claim was correct, so we tracked down the source to an organisation called the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

Research director Siri Aas Rustad tells us how they worked out a figure for the number of children living near to a “conflict” and the big differences between that and something most people would think of as “war”.

If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team on moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Giles Aspen 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are one in six children living through war?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week:

Is the secret to halving obesity rates really just a matter of cutting back on one fizzy drink a day?

How many new babies in the City of London have a foreign-born parent? And since fewer than one baby a week is actually born in the City of London, how much should we care?

Electricity in the UK is more expensive than almost anywhere else. Why? And is it anything to do with wind turbines?

And we help out rival Radio 4 programme Start the Week with a claim about churches.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett and Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Show less

Can drinking one less bottle of coke a day halve obesity?

Manchester United are terrible, even according to their own manager. Last season saw their worst ever performance in Premier League history.

But at the same time, according to Forbes magazine, they’re still the second most valuable football club in the world. 

How is that possible?

Tim talks to Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert and the author of The Price of Football, to find out the secret of Manchester United’s financial success. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Why Manchester United can afford to play badly

How does economics help us understand conflicts through history? 

That’s the question that economist and journalist Duncan Weldon tries to answer in his new book, Blood and Treasure. 

Tim talks to Duncan about the economic perspective on Viking raiders, Spanish conquest and the Vietnam war.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

The economics of war: Vikings, Conquistadors and Vietnam

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week:

Is church-going making a comeback in the UK?

Is it true that every day, 1000 people begin claiming personal independence payments, or PIP?

When the government talks about how it “returns” illegal immigrants, what does it mean?

Can a new telescope really see golf balls on the moon?

If you’ve seen a number you think looks suspicious, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

More or Less is produced in partnership with the Open University.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nicholas Barrett, David Verry
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the UK seeing a Christian revival?

It’s been over three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the human toll is growing on both sides.

Recently, politicians and journalists have declared a grim milestone, one million Russian casualties.

But is this number accurate? 

Tim talks to Seth Jones, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Olga Ivshina, from the BBC Russian service, to investigate this statistic.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Has Russia suffered a million casualties in the Ukraine war?

Football competitions are kicking off all around Europe in the coming days and weeks, including the world’s most watched division: The English Premier League. We might make our predictions on who we think is going to win a sporting competition but what factors are we considering?
In this programme we look at some of the most popular variables that are taken into account when making sporting predictions and why even these have drawbacks. From upcoming football leagues to the Olympic Games, Head Analyst from Nielsen Gracenote, Simon Gleave tells us what are some of the most difficult sports to predict and why.

Presenter: Paul Connolly
Producer: Natasha Fernandes
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Co-ordinators: Debbie Richford and Janet Staples
Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

Image: Premier League Trophy, Credit: Carl Recine/Reuters

Why is it so hard to predict the outcome of competitions like the Premier League?

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