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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

More or Less: Behind the Stats

This year, the UK has had its hottest May and June days on record, with the mercury hitting the high thirties.

But while the markings on a thermometer seem scientific and regular, the way we split up our calendar does not. Why, for instance, does May have 31 days and June have 30?

To find out why our calendar has its modern form, we speak to Kristen Lippincott, former director of the Royal Observatory at Greenwich, and author of The Story of Time. 

If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

The messy history behind the modern calendar

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? 
 
We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. 
 
If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
CONTRIBUTORS:
 
Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC
David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University
Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University
 
CREDITS:
 
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.

The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark. 

But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?

We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain. 

If you see any stats that look too good to be true and want us to check them out, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound Mix: James Beard.

Does playing tennis make you live 9.7 years longer?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this.

(06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek into the murky information ecosystem that surrounds the war in Ukraine.

(15:00) A loyal listener has resent a burning question that - mortifyingly - he first asked us nearly three years ago: why is air travel cheaper than rail travel? We push our guilt deep, deep down then make it worse by challenging the premise of the question. 

(21:18) Is every shuffle of a deck of cards an unprecedented event in the history of the universe? It’s a bold claim, but maths YouTuber and comedian Matt Parker has done his homework. We invite him into the studio to make his case - and show off his shuffling skills.

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Luke Sibieta - Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Andrey Vladov - BBC Monitoring
Mark Galeotti - author of Forged in War - A Military History of Russia from its Beginnings to Today
Simon Calder - Travel Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph 
Matt Parker - Mathematician, comedian and YouTuber (Stand-up Maths)

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Josh McMinn
Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Does the average teacher really earn £54,000?

The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious....
For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. 
But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. 
If you spot any suspicious numbers in the news or life and want us to investigate, please email in to: moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: James Beard
Production coordinator: Siobhan Reed

Does a full moon make crime rates go up?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.

(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.

(15:40) We turn to homophones in an attempt to continue a running joke. This week, we follow six items about Wales with an item about whales - are our cetacean friends the carbon sinks of our dreams? Will we ever write a stranger paragraph?

(22:10) Cult director and maths fanboy Werner Herzog has been waxing lyrical about the intruiging mysteries of prime numbers. Tim cracks out a surprisingly decent impression and we learn about one of the most inscrutable problems in mathematics - what’s not to like?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Paul Swinney - Chief Economist at The Data City
Liam Sides - Associate Director at Oxford Economics
Dimple Rana - Heat Resilience Leader at Arup
Sue Grimmond - Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
Dr Olaf Meynecke - Marine Ecologist, Griffith University
James Grime - Mathematician and star of YouTube channel Numberphile

Special Guest Appearance:
The Voice of Werner Herzog

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Examining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark. 

Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not. 
We speak to Professors Maggie Levenstein and John Kubale to find out why this data was taken away, and why any of it matters. 

If you spot any numbers or statistical claims that you think we should check out contact: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Neil Churchill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Editor: Richard Vadon

The case of the missing US data

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places. 
A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1 in 216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly”. 

This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe has existed. 
Is the claim true? Dr Jules Kajtar, a physical oceanographer from the National Oceanography Centre, takes a look at the statistics. 

We heard about this story because a listener spotted it and emailed the team. Get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think we should look at. moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

How weird was the Mediterranean Sea heatwave?

In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US. 
 
Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You’d expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven’t. 
 
How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states which have total bans have zero abortions per year?
 
 
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge
Studio Manager: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon, Bridget Harney.

Are abortion numbers rising in the US?

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? 

What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?

When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? 

And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? 

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Charlotte McDonald
Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The mistake in Trump’s tariff formula

After pursuing a largely successful ‘Zero-Covid’ strategy for two years, Hong Kong has now suffered one of the worst Covid death rates in the whole of the pandemic.
 
But what are the numbers that explain this surprising vulnerability?
 
Tim Harford spoke to Professor Ben Cowling from the University of Hong Kong to talk about the nuances of vaccination rates, Hong Kong’s ageing population, and the implications for mainland China and other ‘Zero-Covid’ countries.

Producer: Nathan Gower
Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar

(People lie in hospital beds outside the Medical Centre in Hong Kong, Feb.2022 (Credit: Peter Parks/Getty Images)

Why has Hong Kong’s Covid wave been so bad?

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