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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

More or Less: Behind the Stats

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:

Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis?

Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries?

Is violent crime going up or down?

Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Dr Huseyin Naci, Associate Professor and Director the Pharmaceutical Policy Lab at the London School of Economics
Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower
Producers: Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: Sex, drugs and empty homes

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the second episode, we’re asking some interesting questions about health and the NHS:

Has life expectancy in the UK starting to go up again at last?

What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS?

After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs?

What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK?

What’s gone wrong with productivity in the health service?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP)
Jon Shelton, Head of Cancer Intelligence at Cancer Research UK
Ben Zaranko, Associate Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: Health

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy:

Is the cost-of-living crisis over?

The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number?

When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services?

Do the majority of people in Scotland pay less tax than they would in the rest of the UK?

Does the UK have a more progressive tax system than Scandinavian countries?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation
Helen Miller, Director of Institute for Fiscal Studies
Mairi Spowage, Professor and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde
John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Quiz contestant: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: The Economy

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course.

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the year 2026

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeil
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld 
Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the year 2025

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas.

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time. 

We also figure out just how many parking officers there are versus soldiers in the British army. 

Who really does all the housework? Plus - 20 years of ‘Freakonomics’ with Stephen Dubner. 

And finally - were there really three wise men who visited baby Jesus? And were they kings as the Christmas hymn would lead us to believe?

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeil
Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower and Katie Solleveld 
Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Were there really Three Wise Men?

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750."

Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of. 

We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs. 

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Series Producer: Tom Colls 
Editor: Richard Vadon 
Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

The shocking world of US health costs

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say.

Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures.

We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend?

Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls.
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do we really have ‘superflu’?

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. 
 
Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade. 
 
This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate. 
 
You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there’s a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn’t look like an accurate vision of the future at all. 
 
So what’s going on? 
 
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument. 
 
Presenter: Tim Harford 
Series producer: Tom Colls 
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Were there really Three Wise Men?

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