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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.

(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.

(15:40) We turn to homophones in an attempt to continue a running joke. This week, we follow six items about Wales with an item about whales - are our cetacean friends the carbon sinks of our dreams? Will we ever write a stranger paragraph?

(22:10) Cult director and maths fanboy Werner Herzog has been waxing lyrical about the intruiging mysteries of prime numbers. Tim cracks out a surprisingly decent impression and we learn about one of the most inscrutable problems in mathematics - what’s not to like?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Paul Swinney - Chief Economist at The Data City
Liam Sides - Associate Director at Oxford Economics
Dimple Rana - Heat Resilience Leader at Arup
Sue Grimmond - Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
Dr Olaf Meynecke - Marine Ecologist, Griffith University
James Grime - Mathematician and star of YouTube channel Numberphile

Special Guest Appearance:
The Voice of Werner Herzog

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Examining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’

This year, the UK has had its hottest May and June days on record, with the mercury hitting the high thirties.

But while the markings on a thermometer seem scientific and regular, the way we split up our calendar does not. Why, for instance, does May have 31 days and June have 30?

To find out why our calendar has its modern form, we speak to Kristen Lippincott, former director of the Royal Observatory at Greenwich, and author of The Story of Time. 

If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

The messy history behind the modern calendar

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.

(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).

(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)

(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests:
Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford
Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’
Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol

Returning Special Guest appearance:

Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Benefits vs minimum wage: Which pays more?

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 
 
‘The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. 
 
The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. 
 
The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from Malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. 
 
From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here?
 
We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, Chief Medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk

 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Duncan Hannant

Is the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?

(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot.

(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability?

(19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team.

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests:

Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association
Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham
Dr Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research.

Special guest appearance:

Elis James

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Does Europe suffer more heat deaths than the US?

The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. 

Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?

Andrew’s new book is ’1929: Inside the Crash’.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Producer: Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Andrew Ross Sorkin: What can the Great Crash of 1929 tell us about today?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim. 

(08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in… 

(16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores? 

(21:53) A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades? 

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk. 

Guests: 
Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute 
Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack 
John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London 
Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacher 

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Series Producer: Tom Colls 
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill 
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn 
Editor: Richard Vadon 
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Education, Education, Education (and immigration)

In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian crime sweeping the globe?

We look into what the data actually tells us. 

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk 

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Reporter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls 
Editor: Richard Vadon 
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Mix: Dave O'Neill

Factchecking claims that 400 churches were burned to the ground in France

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us. 

Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one. 

Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers. 

And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales? 

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing
Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London
Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an Envelope

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Debunking the claim that migrants will get half of new homes

On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency. 

Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one. 

Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates. 

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Sound Mix: James Beard 
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Editor: Richard Vadon

The messy history behind the modern calendar

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