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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

More or Less: Behind the Stats

In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian crime sweeping the globe?

We look into what the data actually tells us. 

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk 

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Reporter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls 
Editor: Richard Vadon 
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Mix: Dave O'Neill

Factchecking claims that 400 churches were burned to the ground in France

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us. 

Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one. 

Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers. 

And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales? 

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing
Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London
Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an Envelope

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Debunking the claim that migrants will get half of new homes

On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency. 

Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one. 

Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates. 

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Sound Mix: James Beard 
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Editor: Richard Vadon

The known unknowns of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean?

A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer?

And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon.

Contributors:
Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics
John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times
Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’
Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy Associates

Credits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and John McMinn
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does a fall in the UK's healthy life expectancy mean what you think it means?

What does it mean if you say that something is an epidemic? In the case of a virus, it usually means that it is spreading rapidly and that more and more people are getting infected. 

When a disease isn’t on the rise but is there in a population at a reasonably steady level, we tend to say that the disease is endemic.
 
But what if the thing you’re talking about is not a virus, but a feeling? 

In 2023, the US surgeon general launched a report called “Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation”, warning of the health harms of being lonely and socially isolated. 

The idea that there is an epidemic of loneliness didn’t start there - the term was already in use in the US in the 2010s. And it’s a phrase that’s still going strong, popping up in news stories on a regular basis. 

After that warning from the US Surgeon General, the World Health Organisation launched the Commission on Social Connection, with their director general warning that “more and more people are finding themselves isolated and lonely.”

But is it true that loneliness rates are increasing? Is it right to say we’re in the midst of an epidemic of loneliness?
 
It’s hard to find the data that backs up this claim.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk

CONTRIBUTOR:

Professor Melody Ding, an epidemiologist and population behavioural scientist at the University of Sydney

This programme has been edited to correct a minor technical production error on 27/05/2026

CREDITS:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the ‘loneliness epidemic’ real?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme:

Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of alleged sex offenses. So unbelievable I had to check.” We checked too, and the number isn’t right.

In the last series of More or Less we suggested that nuclear power plant Hinkley C was spending so much on protecting the fish population that it would cost something like £250,000 per fish saved. We’ve had to take a look at that one too.

Last year, we looked at a report by the Bible Society based on polling from YouGov. The Quiet Revival suggested that churchgoing was on the rise in the UK, with young men leading the trend. YouGov now have an update on that survey.

How many caterpillars does a blue tit chick eat before it leaves the nest? In a recent nature documentary, Sir David Attenborough said the right number was 20,000. We’re not so sure.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the more or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

CONTRIBUTORS:

Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University
Professor David Voas, Emeritus Professor of Social Science in the UCL Social Research Institute
Annette Jäckle, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex and a Deputy Director of the UK Household Longitudinal Study
Dr Malcolm Burgess, Principal Conservation Scientist at the RSPB

CREDITS
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nathan Gower and Josh McGinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are refugees more likely to commit crime?

It’s said that AI could soon be coming for the jobs of artists, lawyers, and software engineers. But it might now also be threatening a role at the height of academia – are pure mathematicians safe?
 
Last month, a Stanford mathematician woke up to an email, claiming to have the solution to a problem he'd been working on for seven years - a 60-year-old conundrum known as "Erdos Problem 1196". 
 
The answer had been generated in just 80 minutes - by ChatGPT.
 
Since the end of last year, AI has been providing solutions to a number of novel maths problems, but Problem 1196 is the first to raise eyebrows within the mathematical community. 
 
In this episode, we talk to the mathematicians who've worked on Problem 1196 and find out what the rise of AI could mean for the future of their field.
 
 
CONTRIBUTORS:
Katie Steckles, Mathematician and communicator
Jared Duker Lichtman, Szegő Assistant Professor of Mathematics at Stanford University
Liam Price, amateur mathematician
 
Credits:

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Erdos Problem 1196: Can AI now solve maths that no human can?

According to the World Health organisation, smoking kills some 7 million people every year. It is one of the world’s leading causes of preventable death.

Because smoking causes lung cancer and other awful health conditions, many smokers switch to vaping - using nicotine-based e-cigarettes.

But the World Health organisation is also concerned about vaping. Last year they said 100 million people around the world are now using e-cigarettes, including millions of children, and warned that they were fuelling a new wave of nicotine addiction.

But how do the health risks of these two means of getting nicotine into your bloodstream compare?

According to a recent headline in the Daily Mail, they’re basically the same. Here’s the headline:

“Vaping is linked to lung and mouth cancer in major study, as experts warn: 'It is NOT safer than smoking’”

But is vaping really just as bad for you as smoking?

CONTRIBUTOR:

Professor Lion Shahab, Co-Director of the UCL Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group

CREDITS:

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Reporter/producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O’Neil
Editor: Richard Vadon

Why it’s wrong to say vaping is as bad for you as smoking

If you spend much time on social media, and we don’t necessarily recommend it, then you’ve probably come across a strange fascination with water consumption.

Mainly, this is people telling you that using AI is terrible for the planet because of how much water it uses. We’ve already made a couple of programmes about the numbers in those arguments and, long story short, they probably aren’t saying what you think they’re saying. 

But on platforms like X, BlueSky, and TikTok, an opportunity to keep an argument going is rarely missed
 
And one of the numbers that’s been enlisted in that glorious cause concerns the water that’s used for a seemingly unrelated past-time - eating beef. Here’s an example from a user on X:

“A kilogram of beef requires over 15,000 litres of water to produce,” they wrote. “A vegan who uses ChatGPT every day is living a more sustainable lifestyle than someone who regularly eats beef while boycotting AI.”

Ignoring the AI part, is that true? Does it actually take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef?
 
It turns out that the number isn’t wrong, but it probably isn’t saying what you think it’s saying.

If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

CONTRIBUTORS:
Mesfin Mekonnen, Assistant Professor at the University of Alabama
Mark Mulligan, Professor of Physical and Environmental Geography at King's College London
Tim Hess, Professor of Water and Food Systems at Cranfield University
 
CREDITS:
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Emma Harth
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does it take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef?

Vaccine policy in the US is something of an ideological battleground. 

Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr is a vaccine sceptic, and since taking office he has attempted to remake US vaccine policy. 

In March a judge blocked his proposal to cut the number of jabs that are recommended for kids. 

At the same time, last year saw the worst measles outbreak in the US in decades. There were more than 2000 cases last year, and three people died. There have been more than 1500 cases so far in 2026. 

There’s a lot going on, so it’s possible the public’s views on vaccination are shifting. 

A new poll published by online news site Politico added a big claim into the mix. According to the headline “more Americans doubt vaccine safety than trust it”. 

But is that what the survey actually found? 

Dr David Higgins, a paediatrician and public health assistant professor who writes a Substack called Community Immunity, explains why he believes the headline is misleading. 

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk 

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald 
Series producer: Tom Colls 
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: 
Richard Vadon

The known unknowns of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

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